Future Redbirds

Nick Stavinoha opened some eyes the season before last after being drafted in the 7th round out of LSU to hitting .344/.398/.564 for the Quad Cities in his debut. I actually got to see him first hand and I came away impressed with his hitting abilities. I was pleased to see him move up to AA and expected good things, unfortunately in May he sprained his left ankle on a diving catch and it landed him on the DL for a couple of weeks. (Some reports say it was a slight fracture.) At the time of the injury, Stavy seemed to be adjusting well to AA, hitting a .265 GPA (gross production average, which is OBP*1.8+SLG/4) over 74 at bats. Upon returning from the injury, he clearly wasn’t right, as evidenced by his .192 GPA from the day he returned on May 17th to June 30th, over 132 at bats. From there on he caught fire, posting a .312 GPA in 214 at bats from July 1 to season’s end, including 7 homers in August. He earned himself a trip to the AFL, where he went cold again, putting up a .206 GPA in 78 at bats. Before you could blame the ankle, not sure what to blame for that disappointing performance in ‘zona.

With my new little unoriginal little system on breaking down hitters, here’s how Nick grades out:

On base skills: I’ll qualify all this by saying it’s hard to get a read on Stavinoha because I don’t know how much to blame on the injury. His .340 OBP is right around league average for the Texas League. His strikeout rate doubled at the AA level, and his walk rate dropped 2%. He did show signs of improvement as the season was ending. His BABIP was .346 while the leagues’ was .315, so perhaps he was a bit lucky to be hitting nearly .300 by season’s end. He also was a bit pull happy over the season. Overall, Stavinoha possesses good bat speed and I think the skills are there to maintain a decent average, I’ll grade him out as C+ for now, but has B- to perhaps even B potential.

Power skills: Again, how much can we blame on the hurt foot? .224 ISO from July on suggests the power is still there. He’s a pretty big guy at 6′2″, 225, but he’ll be turning 25 this season so he’s probably not going to add too much in way of power. I’ll give him another C+ with B potential grade here.

Glove: Stavy was a catcher for much of his college career, and he played like an ex catcher in the outfield. He rated a -12 plays above average according to minorleaguesplits.com, so yeah, the range isn’t really there. I haven’t really seen him play OF, so just based on the numbers he gets a D+, but that isn’t fair as defensive metrics are great and all, but I’d sooner trust the eyes. Reports I’ve heard are mixed, and the day I watched him play he was playing 1st. Maybe grade INC. should suffice for now.

Arm: From what I’ve heard, he’s got a very good, accurate throwing arm in right. B for now, someone if you’ve seen him, tell me more.

Speed: 4.5 to first, not great but not completely awful for a big man. C, I suppose.

Overall: Like I said earlier, when I saw Stavinoha playing for QC, I came away impressed. He had a disciplined approach and a powerful bat. It seemed like everything he hit, he hit with authority during that game. I really think the ankle injury played a big part in his less then impressive overall season in AA, so I’m going to be optimistic and grade him out at B-. But like I mentioned, he’s turning 25 soon, so he’s on the clock and his stock could drop in a hurry if he doesn’t produce at AAA.

Future: Right now it appears he’s won a job at Memphis as the everyday RF, and he could be a September call up this year. I would expect he could compete for a platoon outfield job for 2008.

Comparables: I’m not very good at this, but I’ll say Kevin Mench ‘04-’05 numbers could be a reachable ceiling, even with out playing in a park like Arlington during his career. Him turning out as a Matt Diaz, Jason Lane type of platoon OF would probably be more realistic and his #2 PECOTA comp is Jorge Toca, journeyman AAAA first baseman who you may remember from last season’s Memphis squad. So there you have the high, medium, and low end of what he could turn out to be.

Have you seen this player? If so, let me know what you think. I saw him for one game, so along with that I am basing my judgments on stats and secondhand info. If you’ve seen this player, share your thoughts in the comments. [edit] ask and i shall receive, Goold’s got some good info on stavy at Birdland regarding his newly fine tuned swing.