Future Redbirds

Now that we’ve got some sample-size issues aside with the minor league teams having played around 40 games, let’s look at who’s ready for the next level. I want to spend some time sifting through the players and see if we can’t find some prospects that are ready for more of a challenge. I’m not going look at every player on every roster; that’s far larger a task than I’m willing to assume. What I do want to do is touch on the players that I think are ready for the next level and those prospects that have some name ‘cache’ within the organization that may not be ready.

Before we start let me preface this with a bit about my philosophy on minor league hitters and pitchers. Minor league hitters tend to have more linear progression of skills than pitching prospects do. That is to say you can make assumptions about skillsets improving in a hitter that aren’t as true when you talk about pitchers. I’m much more hesitant to move a pitcher up after about 1/3 of the season than I am a hitter.

I also think that moves are dictated from the bottom up. That is to say, if a player in Quad Cities is ready to go to Palm Beach, there has to be another equally important player at Palm Beach to block his path. For example, Colby Rasmus would be looking up at Rick Ankiel, who despite being 27 is a legit prospect given his time as a starting outfielder has been so brief. So the question isn’t just, is Rasmus ready for Triple A but also, who do you bump if he is ready? I want to make this as realistic an exercise as possible so, if I move someone up, I need to reflect that move at the next level.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s start, appropriately at the bottom with Quad Cities Hitters.

Hitters:

1B - Brandon Buckman - DOB: 02/14/1984

2007 Stats: .348/.386/.620/1.006 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) ISO = .272

Looking up at: Mark Hamilton, Allen Craig

Buckman is actually older than Hamilton and Craig by about 6 months. I’ve got Craig listed because I have some concerns about his ability to stick at 3B defensively — he has 10 errors on the season so far. Fortunately, Palm Beach uses the DH so there’s room for more than one first baseman. Brandon was selected in the 19th round of the 2006 draft from Nebraska (the same school as the notoriously scrappy Darin Erstad. He was a punter, you know!) and hit .300/.367/.478 in rookie-league last year. He’s shown some improvement on his power adding .100 points of ISO and having already surpassed last year’s 8 HRs. Verdict: Move him on up

2B - Jaime Landin - DOB: 04/19/1984

2007 Stats: .268/.351/.415/.766 BB% = 11% K% = 5.5

Looking up at: Isaias Garcia, Jose Martinez, Jose Contreras, Dan Nelson

Palm Beach has a glut of middle infielders and several of them look overmatched. Notably, 22-yr old Jose Contreras who walked an 16.3% of his PAs in 2006 and 17.3% in 2005 before his promotion. The Cardinals nabbed him in the minor league Rule 5 draft this year. He’s currently hitting for a .457 OPS. Now I’m not sure if he has to stay at High-A for the Cardinals to hold on to him, but if not I’d move Landin up to his utility infield position. Notice that Landin is above that 10% BB threshold and he rarely strikes out. He’s about average size for a middle infielder listed at 5′10″ 175 pounds. He does need to learn to elevate the ball more as he is currently hitting 47% of his balls in play as groundballs. That’s holding his BABIP down and his AVG/OBP in conjunction. (Garcia was moved up to Palm Beach earlier this season, and Martinez and Nelson are holding their own.) Verdict: Move him on up

2B/3B - Jared Schweitzer - DOB: 10/13/1983

2007 Stats: .353/.421/.559/.980 34ABs BB% = 2.9% BABIP = .385

Looking up at: Allen Craig, Isaias Garcia

Wow, that BABIP just pops off the page at me. Schweitzer was drafted last year in the 30th round. He spent some time on the DL at the beginning of May and as such hasn’t collected as many at bats as other players. His current rate of play, while it looks nice in those rate stats, isn’t sustainable given that high BABIP and the low walk rate. Verdict: Stayin’ put

OF - Daryl Jones - DOB: 06/25/1987

2007 Stats: .189/.293/.270/.563 ISO = .077 K% = 25.2%

Daryl Jones was drafted in 2005 out of high school in Texas. He’s got the highest ceiling of all the players on the QC team. Some speed, some pop and a whole lot of tools. He’s also got some peripheral stats that are all over the place. His BABIP is very low at .244, he’s got a nice walk rate at 11% but he could do to elevate the ball more and he needs to reign in the strikeouts. His last year in rookie ball was over .200 but that was only 68 ABs so it’s hard to know how indicative of his true talent that is. He also needs some work on his basestealing having been caught in 4 of his 10 attempts this year. Given the mess of outfielders above him in the system, the Cardinals can afford to be patient. Verdict: Stayin put

We’ll visit with the QC pitchers next, including names like Blake King, Elvis Hernandez and Eddie Degerman.