Future Redbirds

Well, I had a hard time finding a lot of hitters on the QC team that I thought were ready to move up. . .that certainly isn’t the case with the pitchers. If anything, there’s a whole slew of pitchers putting up good numbers. I could touch on everyone on the QC roster in truth as there really aren’t many having “bad” seasons. But again, I’ve got to remember that anyone I want to promote is bumping a roster spot of someone in High A. The Cardinals have a host of pitchers that are out of college and may not be getting the challenge they need at QC — but to keep myself sane, I’m gonna start easy and start young.

(PS - If you want to know who they are looking up at, check the Palm Beach roster for their pitchers.)

Young Guns:

Blake King - DOB: 04/11/1987

2007 Stats: 36.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 36K:23BB, Opponents Batting Average (OBA) .209

Drafted in the 30th round in 2005, King was impressive in rookie ball last year striking out 74 batters in 62.2 innings. He’s still at a K an inning but the walks are out of control. While I’m still on the fence regarding the tandem starter usage at QC, I doubt Blake is. He’s got an ERA over 7 in relief. He has a harder time with his control as he walks a full 2/9IP more in relief (caveat, small sample size). He’s still young and given the quantity of college pitchers on the QC team, he can afford to stay behind for some extra seasoning to work out those walks. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Sean Garceau - DOB: 08/28/1987

2007 Stats: 34 IP, 4.24 ERA, 38K:12BB, OBA .272

Another draftee of the 2005 class, Garceau missed all of last year with some unusual medical issues. A torn muscle led to an infection in the right quadricep (thigh). He didn’t do very well in 2005 rookie league but he’s still at the tender age of 19 and holding his own in QC is enough to ask right now. He’s also more hittable than you want a prospect to be before moving them up. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Relievers (of the one inning variety):

Kenny Maiques - DOB: 06/25/1985

2007 Stats: 3.60 ERA, 15IP, 16K:9BB

I don’t like his walk rate. 9 walks in 15 innings is 4.5BB/9IP which is ugly. That being said, I’d like to see Maiques get more innings and that’s not going to happen in QC. They’ve played 40-something games and he has 15 innings. That’s not obscenely low but it’s not exactly regular usage either. The Ks are nice and the ERA was better until he was lit up on the 19th of May for 3 runs in 1 inning. The other thing in his stats that jumps out at me is his 7.04 ERA with runners on and 9.00 ERA with runners in scoring position. Obviously, when there’s no runners on your ERA will be lower since you’d have to give up the longball to be scored on. Those ERAs might be hinting at Maiques having a problem pitching out of the stretch as well. His numbers aren’t great but he needs more work than he’s getting with the tandem starters in QC. Verdict: Move him on up

Kyle Mura - DOB: 11/24/1984

2007 Stats: .75 ERA, 12IP, .67 GO/AO, OBA .079

In his 12 innings of work Mura has faced just 42 batters (6 over the minimum); that’s outstanding. The GO/AO could be problematic as he faces more advanced and powerful hitters. He’s got his walks under control with an 11K:3BB ratio. While I’m hesitant to push starting pitchers, middle relievers are a dime a dozen. If a reliever doesn’t work and they don’t have standout stuff, just cut bait. If a starter doesn’t work, you try to fox them up or convert them to relief. So, I’m all for seeing what Mura can do with more innings against better hitters. Verdict: Move him on up

Starters (who relieve as a part time gig):

Brandon Dickson - DOB: 11/03/1984

2007 Stats: 47.2 IP, 3.59ERA, 2.72 GO/AO, 29Ks

There’s some good and bad here. Dickson has a great GO/AO ratio — think Chein-Ming Wang from last year; yes, that’s how good that ratio is. At the same time, he’s generating fewer K’s than I’d like, although he has good control with just 9 walks in those 47.2 innings. If he’s not going to strikeout a lot of batters, he has to continue to keep away from the free pass. Dickson was signed as an undrafted free agent in August of last year and has a big frame that may fill out more at 6′5″ and 190lbs. I’m kind of torn here because he hasn’t been dominant per se and as struggled in his starter’s role. (Strangely, the 5 HRs allowed have all been to right-handers. . .Dickson, also a righty, has done much better against lefties this year). In the end, it’s another case of finding out if Dickson is a mirage of the lower levels. Verdict: Move him on up

Brad Furnish - DOB: 01/19/1985

2007 Stats: 3.09 ERA, 35IP, 33K:15BB, .71 GO/AO, 4.36 FIP

ERA really isn’t a good measure of how a prospect is doing (or any pitcher for that matter). Unfortunately, the rigorous statistics (VORP, WARP, WS, WPA) aren’t available at the minors. To a certain extent, that’s a good thing. The numbers don’t necessarily capture the development that a prospect is going through, i.e. throw a 2-seam fastball more often because you need to master it. This does leave a gap in knowledge though. Furnish has a nice ERA but his FIP shows you that he’s not really pitching that well. His problems seem simple: too many walks, too many flyouts. I know I harp on walks alot with prospects but learning to control their pitches and, in turn, the strike zone is critical to their development. Walks have a lot to do with the batters plate discipline but pitchers have to do everything they can to minimize them. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Tyler Herron - DOB: 08/05/1986

2007 Stats: 4.14 ERA, 37IP, 35K:8BB, 2.73 FIP

Herron has the opposite problem from Brad Furnish; Tyler’s ERA isn’t so great but his FIP is a sterling 2.73. He’s got good control and he’s only 21 years old. I’m looking over these stats and the more I read the more I wish I could go watch every game every day to know what kind of look and feel each pitcher has when they’re actually throwing the ball. I sympathize with Jeff Luhnow (or whoever makes these decisions) cause figuring out who needs to move up is damn tough — esp. when you have a limited number of roster spots. Even with Herron’s nice improvements from last year (increasing his K rate and decreasing his BB rate), he’s only 21 and promoting him later/at the end of the season isn’t going to retard his development. Verdict: Stayin’ put

P. J. Walters - DOB: 03/12/1985

2007 Stats: 47.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 46K:7BB, 2.63 GO/AO

If I seem a bit irrational about P. J. Walters for the next few minutes, forgive me. erik told you about him in January; well, have you been keeping your eye on PJ? First off, this kid needs a nickname, PJ isn’t intimidating enough for my tastes. I propose Bulldog or Destructo or. . . ok, so I suck something fierce at nicknames, help me out here. Anyway, he’s striking out almost a batter an inning and he never walks anyone. That 6.5:1 K:BB ratio is pretty freakin’ good. Outside of Degerman, I think it’s the best on the team. He’s even better as a starter posting an ERA of 1.36 in 33 innings. I don’t know what his velocity is but he’s got a decent frame at 6′4″ 200lbs and he certainly seems durable. Verdict: Move him on up

Elvis Hernandez - DOB: 04/27/1985

2007 Stats: 33.2 IP, 2.94 ERA, 35K:10BB

Signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2005, Elvis Hernandez of the Domincan Republic has a damn cool name. . . He’s also been a pretty good pitcher thus far this season. He has struggled as a starter, with an ERA almost a full run higher than his composite ERA in those games. He’s strikes out a good number of batters and doesn’t walk alot. He’s only allowed one homerun in his 30+ innings. Looking over his gamelog, he looks like he’s been solid with a flash of dominance: April 12. I’d like to see that ERA split decrease a little before promoting him. It seems like he’s got it in him to start but he just hasn’t worked out how to retire batters multiple times through the lineup. Verdict: Stayin put

Eddie Degerman - DOB: 09/14/1983

2007 Stats: 18 IP, 1.50 ERA, 9 hits, 26 Ks, 3 BBs, 1.07 GO/AO

That is dominance — plain and simple. I’m drooling over that 8+ K:BB ratio. He spent some time in extended spring training before joining QC this season due to losing control of his pitches. You probably already know about his unusual over the top delivery style. He’s not necessarily a fireballer and relies alot on the quirky delivery, imo, which may not translate well into the upper minors. Still he’s got a plus-plus curve to go with his fastball and changeup. I get the impression that when he losses command of his pitches, the wheels come off in a hurry. I also imagine he gives his catchers fits trying to figure out that delivery for themselves. He’s a little bit older being drafted out of college and frankly he should be moved through the lower levels quickly. The 1.07 FIP and striking out 38.8% of the batters faced is pretty damn impressive; he’s just barely a groundball pitcher and he may need to work on that some, but not much if he maintains anything close to that K rate. Verdict: Move him on up

Just to recap, if I was in charge, I would cure cancer and promote Maiques, Mura, Dickson, Walters and Degerman would all be moving up to Palm Beach. I’m especially impressed by Walters and Degerman. I think Dickson is going to stall out and Maiques and Mura are relievers (aka a crap shoot at this point). The QC team is putting up some pretty impressive pitching performances and I think they’ve got some real upside with the younger arms as well. Sunday, we’ll drop in on the Palm Beach hitters.

(Note: All stats include the games through 5/22.)