Previous Installments of Move Him On Up: QC Hitters, QC Pitchers
Hitters coming up from QC:
1B - Brandon Buckman - DOB: 02/14/1984
2B - Jaime Landin - DOB: 04/19/1984
One thing to remember as we go through the hitter for Palm Beach is the park factor. These players are playing half their games in an environement that suppresses HRs and runs in general. In the interest of opening two roster spots for Buckman and Landin, let’s start with who gets the boot from Palm Beach:
2B/SS - Jose Contreras - DOB: 04/26/1985
2007 Stats: .188/.278/.219/.497 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
In 2006, he posted a .566 OPS in the Sally League for Savannah. He looks completely overmatched with 1 xbh in 32 at bats. The Palm Beach Cardinals have better options for middle infielders. Keep Jose Martinez at SS and play Landin at 2B. Isaias Garcia can remain as the utility infielder and voila, that middle infield has potential. I’m not sure why the Cardinals picked him up from the Nationals in the AAA Rule 5 draft. Send him back or demote him. . .whatever the case, there’s better players for those at bats to be spent on. Verdict: Living in a van down by the (Quad Cities) river
1B - Allen Craig - DOB: 07/18/1984
Looking up at: Joe Mather, Mike Ferris, Juan Richardson
2007 Stats: .322/.363/.548/.911, 20% line drive (LD) rate, 6.2% BB rate
The line drive rate tells us that he may be able to maintain a high batting average. Line drives have the highest BABIP of any ball in play. For a better explanation, visit this Hardball Times article from way back in 2004. It showed that of over 20,000 balls in play during the first month or so of that baseball season, line drives were about a third as likely as a flyball or groundball to result in an out. So, line drives = higher BABIP = higher AVG. Now, that being said, Craig needs to improve his plate disicpline. He’s got power in his bat with a .200+ ISO but the walk rate needs to about double. Still, he’s mashing in High A and it’s time for a challenge. Verdict: Move him on up
1B - Mark Hamilton - DOB: 07/29/1984
Looking up at: Joe Mather, Mike Ferris, Juan Richardson
2007 Stats: .298/.331/.461/.792, 5 HRs, 5.8% BB rate
The 76th pick of the 2006 draft. He’s 23 in High A. Maybe he’ll figure things out but I’m completely unimpressed by his track record thus far. There’s not a whole lot of enlightening things to say here except sometimes prospects just fizzile out (or never get going). Hamilton seems like another Mike Ferris to me (i.e. disappointing). Verdict: Stayin put
SS - Jose Martinez - DOB: 01/24/1986
Looking up at: Tyler Greene
2007 Stats: .245/.280/.297/.577, .053 ISO
Jose Martinez was a relative unknown last year in the minors. He got some press in several places including this Hardball Times article. He’s only 21 in High-A so he’s on the right track age wise. He is struggling in Palm Beach and I see some really disturbing trends. First, his ISO is a third of last year (partially explainable by the Palm Beach park factor). Second, for the month of May, his K% has doubled and his LD% has been cut in half. That’s distressing because he’s noted for his contact rate (which is still exceptional) and lacing extra base hits around. Maybe it’s a blip in the radar. He definitely needs more time. Verdict: Staying put
2B/3B/SS - Dan Nelson - DOB: 02/12/1984
Looking up at: Juan Richardson, Tyler Greene
2007 Stats: .218/.363/.245/.614, 8 SB, 17.3% BB rate
The first thing I do when I’m going over the players, is to glance at their OPS. Generally, if it’s anything below .700 for an infielder, I move on. So I’ve looked over Nelson several times now and never noticed him as anything spectacular. That has officially changed. Nelson has seen time in the OF as well as 3B and SS this year, if I recall correctly, so he’s kind of pulling the super-utility-player-thing. He’s my sleeper prospect for High-A. He’s 23, which is older than i’d like, but look at that walk rate! He’s trending upward to as last year was 11%, so this probably isn’t a fluke. I also suspect that Nelson has realized he’s not going to hit any HRs in PB (he had 7 last year) so he’s taking walks instead. I’m willing to overlook the fact that he has no power and poor contact rates. A .363 OBP is astonishing with a .218 average. He’s still hitting a good percentage of line drives and his BABIP looks a touch low so I think he’s getting cheated on some line drive hits going straight to fielders. In any event, if the power doesn’t come back to at least David Eckstein levels, he’ll never make it in the bigs but moving him out of PB would be a good way to figure out if he can recapture some power and continue to post impressive walk rates. Verdict: Move him on up
It’s a heck of a lot easier sorting through the hitters in our minor league system, as opposed to the pitchers. Unfortunately, that’s in large part because we have little in the way of position players that project as regulars in the majors — and they are all at AA. But I did stumble accross an interesting sleeper in Dan Nelson and a raking 1B in Allen Craig. They’re both on the old side for High A and the club needs to go ahead and promote them to find out if they’ve got anything in those two players. At best, they could might turn into bench players with an ETA 2009, which is fine since I’d rather play league minimum for those type of role players anyway. There just aren’t any real world beaters in the low minors as far as position players go. Palm Beach pitchers should be out sometime in the middle of the week — I’ve got some serious roster decisions to make there after moving up 5 pitchers from Quad Cities.
(Note: All stats include games through 5/24)
Filed under: Minor Leagues, analysis
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I don’t think Hamilton is up there with Ferris as being labeled a bust. At least he is hitting for a good average, which is more impressive considering his slow start.
As impressive as it is, I don’t think you move up Nelson just because he has a great walk rate. He’s batting .218, not too far from the Mendoza line. He would be completely overmatched at Double-A.
The first mention I saw of Jose Martinez was at baseballhq by Shandler and company, who had him rated as one of the top ten prospects in the organization. That was late summer last year.
Heading to Springfield and Memphis next weekend. I’ll report back with pictures and some thoughts.
Yep - Completely disagree a zillion percent regarding Hamilton. The guy has raised his OPS to 800 in a park and league that severely suppress the long ball while batting in an RBI possition. His park adjusted OPS is something like 880 right? A bust like Mike Ferris is in no way even close to fair… What data is that based on?
Lawless, I don’t see Hamilton as a Ferris, either. Maybe it’s azru’s gut read, it’s not baseless as Hamilton does have a pretty low walk rate. but you are right, he’s making good contact and hitting for power in Palm Beach, not an easy feat. I don’t see him as Ferris at all, but regardless unless he can move to the OF it’s hard to see him with much of a future in STL.
This is what happens when I make inflammatory statements and then leave for the weekend
One of the things, I’ve enjoyed about writing here is that it isn’t just my viewpoint that’s coming out. I know erik is a higher on Hamilton that I am and yet I still get to call him a Mike Ferris.
The comparison isn’t apt in that Hamilton isn’t a complete bust — yet. That being said, he isn’t hitting well. He’s a 23 yr. old 1B (in an organization that doesn’t have a spot for any more 1B/LF) and he has shoddy peripherals.
Yes, he’s starting to make contact. Yes, Palm Beach suppresses runs. BUT, he’s striking out in over 20% of his plate appearances. He’s walking in under 10% of his plate appearances. His BABIP stands at .360 and he’s not hitting the necessary % of line drives to sustain that. Despite his OPS being held down by park factors, it’s being augmented by luck at the moment. I compare him to Ferris because I don’t see either making to the majors or having any trade value.
First of all, I appologize, I was in a tizzy about the Reyes down to the minors decision and it came across in my disagreeing with you on Hamilton.
I think it all comes down to how you define a bust. Ferris is clearly a busin with mendoza line batting averages and sub 600 OPS in his working on four seasons in MILB. He hasn’t done anything plain and simple.
Hamilton on the other hand as recently as last year was ranked in the top 30 of the entire draft class by John Sickels and appears to me at least to have some amount of potential to reach the MLB in the next 2-3 years and become a useful player. Still aways off and he is definitely going to remain a bit old for his league, but there is potential there. Not for the Cards as he is definitely a 1B, but could be decent enough (i.e. my comparable would be Chris Duncan vs. Ferris, but neither is particularly apt imo).
Anyway - Sorry for freaking out a bit. I thoroughly enjoy your website and the posts that both of you consistently put up.
Lawless — no problems. I assure you I was pissy too re: Reyes. You have some pertinent arguments, it wasn’t an angry rant by any means.
I’m not a huge fan of defensively challenged hitters in our system given that a) we don’t have a DH and b) they are blocked at LF/1B. Hamilton may play his way onto the bench or another team. I’ll cede the Sickels point, as he certainly know more than I do. There’s always a possibility that a player can make the bigs (look at Josh Hamilton, from A-ball to the majors) but I’m really skeptical of Mark Hamilton.