See below or click here for yesterday’s report/slash angry rant RE: A. Reyes.
Bryan Smith, formerly one of the many talented writers at Baseball Analysts and who is now writing for Baseball Prospectus has his take on the NL Central and the upcoming draft. Bryan identifies the scouting directors tendencies in his forecasts, and gives his best guess on who the Cardinals could be drafting.
2007 Draft Crystal Ball: The Cardinals choose 18th, and I think the Cards could use a pitcher that could move quickly. This could be where Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers lands, or if Luhnow wants a starting pitcher, Brett Cecil and James Simmons both promise to move up quickly.
A few weeks back when I talked with Kevin Goldstein, he guess-timated the Cards taking RHP Casey Weathers at #18. Weathers is the closer for the #1 NCAA team in the country, Vanderbilt, and can routinely hit 96-98 with his fastball. He doesn’t have a consistent secondary offering to go with his fastball, (emphasis on consistent) but he does throw a hard slider that’s been runs in the 87-89 MPH range that has been clocked at 91 at times. He also has a change. With that sort of power arm, he’s had no trouble striking out batters with 58 K’s in 39 innings. But much like Chris Perez, he does have issues with control, as he’s walked over 4 batters per nine innings. I’m not so certain that the Cardinals would take a player so similar to Perez, but if they do they could have a really great competition on their hands on who will be Izzy’s heir, and who will be the other one’s set up man. (Or heck, maybe Dave Duncan will try one of them out in the rotation!)
RHP James Simmons (UC-Riverside) could be the Cardinals pick in the supplemental first round pick for two big reasons. One reason being he has a good two-seam fastball that sits in the 89-91 MPH range. The other is he can put the ball where ever he wants to, as evidenced by his 113/13 strikeout to walk ratio. His secondary stuff is said to be lagging to put it mildly, but what he’s produced against one of NCAA’s toughest schedules speaks volumes. (2.88 DIPS, park factor and strength of schedule adjusted.)
And I’ve already discussed Brett Cecil.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
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fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Honestly, I’ve got no problem drafting Weathers, other than the fact that last name makes me think of the mongoloid Dave Weathers. Anyway, with Perez and Weathers in the mix makes me have feelings of the old Astros bullpen with Wagner, Dotel and Lidge. That was a darn tough back end and if you didn’t have the lead after 6, you could forget about ever getting it.
I would be pretty upset if we drafted Weathers. One reason being is that relief pitching is terribly overrated. Another being is I think you could get better value at the #18 pick. I don’t think it really matters if he can move quickly he still wouldn’t be up til 2009 and the bullpen is the least of my worries on this team. That being said it wouldn’t shock me if the Cardinals would draft Weathers. Also, if we draft 2 college pitchers with our first 2 picks that will frustrate me quite a bit. But maybe thats because I’m fully riding the Matt Harvey to StL bandwagon when he drops to us.
i disagree about simmons’ secondary stuff lagging far behind. his changeup is actually pretty good, but his breaking ball does need quite a bit of work.
I am hoping Scherzer slips to us but his start in Indy League suggests that he won’t. What would Dunc do with this guy? He tends to ward off the hard throwers.
my info is based on what i’ve read, which was only one report. good to hear he has a good change.
shhhh — I’m with you. I don’t want to see us draft any relievers in the early rounds. I’d rather see how some of our pitching in QC and PB shakes out as I think there could be some good pure relievers or starters-converted-to-relief that come out of there. I’d like to see a slightly younger draft with an emphasis on position players.
we shall see. . .