Future Redbirds

Yesterday’s Prospect Report is below. 

Move Him On Up Installments: QC Hitters, QC Pitchers, PB hitters

Now things get interesting.  It’s often easy to say “so and so needs to move up”.  I’m finding it particularly difficult to say, “so and so needs to move up, at the expense of —”.  The Cardinals have a lot of college/older arms that are throwing in PB and I’m a real believer that if an older prospect is succeeding at lower levels for a sustained period of time, they need to advance them to continue their development.  I’d like to advance more of the older hitters, but they haven’t been doing near as well as some of the Cardinal hurlers.  Let’s see who I need to make room for in Palm Beach coming up from Quad Cities:

Kenny Maiques, Kyle Mura, Brandon Dickson, P. J. Walters, Eddie Degerman

So, I’ve got 2 pure relievers, and 3 starters that need spots on the roster. I’m really trying to stay true to my philosophy on the minors: promotions are caused by the lower level players succeeding unless blocked by a significant prospect. The starters are going to be problematic but let’s see how this shakes out.

Looking up at:

Notable Springfield Staters: Jaime Garcia, Stuart Pomeranz (DL)

Notable Springfield Relievers: Chris Perez, Matthew Scherer

Solving the starters:

Adam Ottavino - DOB: 11/22/1985

2007 Stats: 49 IP, 3.31 ERA, 56K:24BB, 50% GB rate, 2HR allowed

Mr. Ottavino, whom I will refer to as Ott henceforth because I’m lazy, was the Cardinals first round draft pick in 2006.  Here’s what the illustrious Kevin Goldstein of BP said of Ott in his draft recap last July:

Ottavino was thought by some to become a hometown pick by the Red Sox, but Bard’s availability was too good to pass up. Ottavino has a great frame and a good fastball, but he’ll need to find more consistency with one of his breaking balls to end up as more than a reliever.

In a perfect world, Goldstein projects him as a middle of the rotation starter.  I’m a little higher on Ott than that.  I think he has #2 ceiling if he can polish out an effective secondary pitch. He’s apparently being indoctrinated with the two-seam fastball because the coaches are worried that his 4-seam fastball, which rides up in the zone, is going to get hammered.  Apparently, all 4-seam fastballs get hammered no matter how good they may be.  But that’s a discussion for another time.  Ottavino has a killer strikeout rate with 56 Ks in 49 innings.  For the math impaired, that’s 11+ K/9.  I don’t care if he’s tossing underhand as long as he’s striking out 11 batters every 9 IP.  Frankly, if the brass are worried about him not being able to blow that 4-seam fastball by hitters, let’s give him the incentive to learn a new pitch (or find out if that really is the case).  That’s only going to come from hitters teeing off the 4-seamer and that’s only going to happen at the higher levels. Verdict: Move him on up

Tyler Norrick - DOB: 09/27/1983

2007 Stats: 65.1 IP, 2.89 ERA, 44K:29BBs, .84 GO/AO, 1% HR/AO

For a flyball pitcher,  that HR/AO ratio is disturbing because it probably isn’t something that can be maintained.  Norrick has a 3.69 FIP so far, so temper your optimism at seeing that ERA.  He’s striking out enough batters to survive but 6K/9IP isn’t exactly dominating.  He has been avoiding the walks well enough that he can continue with that K rate.  It’s not a set of peripherals that tells me he’s ready to move on though. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Adam Daniels - DOB: 08/16/1982

2007 Stats: 2-5, 3.19 ERA, 53.2IP, 42K:9BB, 2.22GO/AO

This is reason number 1,230,984,523 (No, i didn’t just hit random numbers on my keypad.  I have text file full of 1,230,984,522 reasons.) why win-loss records are worthless in evaluating pitchers.  Daniels has lost 2 games where he threw 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less.  He also got a no decision on an 8 inning, 1 ER game and a 6 inning 3 ER game.  He’s a groundball machine with a respectable K rate and fantastic control.  All his peripherals point to the ERA being accurate, maybe even a touch high.  In 2006, Daniels was in QC and threw 137.2 innings allowing 139 hits, 47 ER, 3 HR and 44 BBs while striking out 128.  He’s got the groundball and K rates to excel and he’s left-handed (some people just get all the athletic blessings in the world).  Verdict: Move him on up

Trey Hearne - DOB: 08/19/1983

2007 Stats: 60.1 IP, 28K:17BBs, .312 OBA

Trey Hearne, interviewed last year over at VEB, was drafted in the 28th round in 2005.  He pitched well in 2006 striking out 106 in 128 IP to the tune of a 2.25 ERA.  By his own statements in the interview, he isn’t a fireballer and relies on his control.  His control is still in tack but his K rate has plunged to dangerous levels.  Opponents are hitting over .300 against him and he seems overmatched.  I’m in a conundrum here because Degerman, Walters and Dickson all need to move up but there just isn’t a lot of wiggle room in the PB rotation.  So I’m going to propose that Hearne move to the bullpen.  It’s not a decision I’m thrilled with, but I wonder if his lack of raw stuff isn’t betraying him the 2nd or 3rd time through the order.  If there’s an injury at PB, he can hop back in the rotation, but I’m curious if only pitching for 1-2 innings could help him jack up his velocity or prevent hitters from getting a good read on him.  {Note: Hearne got rocked again on the 31st after this was written.} Verdict: Temporary(?) move to the bullpen

Routing the Relievers:

Luke Gregerson - DOB: 05/14/1984

2007 Stats: 28.1 IP, 33Ks, 67% GB rate, 0.95 ERA, .167 BABIP

Well, if that line doesn’t tell you where this kid is headed . . . keep reading, I guess (You should know me well enough to figure out he’s getting promoted — erik’s looked at him previously).  Let’s talk about the one bothersome stat, BABIP.  That’s an inordinately low BABIP and it’s not something that’s sustainable over the long run.  Now, looking at his batted ball data, I don’t think that the BABIP is that low.  Less than 10% of balls in play against him are line drives meaning that hitters aren’t making solid contact.  All of his flyballs have been converted into outs and that will probably regress and raise his BABIP.  Still, there’s a lot to be excited about here.  I know Chris Perez is in Springfield as their closer (and I haven’t looked at his stats to know whether or not to promote him yet) but that isn’t a problem.  The goal is to Gregerson pitching against better batters and the whole 9th inning closer mentality/makeup argument is, in my opinion, hugely overrated.  If Gregerson pitches the 8th and Perez the 9th, I’m fine with that but Gregerson needs to be pitching in AA — now.  Drafted in the 28th round, Gregerson looks like a steal for Jeff Luhnow and the Cardinals.Verdict: Move him on up

Scott Vander Weg - DOB: 12/14/1982

2007 Stats: 26 IP, 3.81 ERA, 22K:4BB

I love me some improved command.  Vander Weg is quietly having a nice season.  There’s nothing eye-popping about his stats.  He pitched around this level last year in QC and his peripherals are all pretty consistent with the exception of the decreased walks.  The only thing of note is that he appears to struggle a little with LH hitters.  They tend to hit him more often (though not necessarily harder).  Looking at his splits (the data is a little bit old) he is surrending singles to the LH batters but not any extra base hits.  Do I think Vander Weg is a future MLB reliever?  Probably not.  Has he pitched well the last two seasons? Yeah, he has.  He may be better than I suspect but I think he’ll struggle in the upper-minors. Nonetheless… Verdict: Move him on up

Matthew Trent - DOB: 08/07/1982

2006 Stats: 69 IP, 2.61 ERA, 79K:34BB, 1.59 GO/AO

I’m throwing out his 2006 stats cause he has 7 IP in 2007. . .and I’m not sure why.  Drafted in the 13th round of the 2005 draft, Trent seems like a sleeper prospect for PB.  I haven’t heard a lot about him but he’s got good numbers from QC last year.  I’d like to see the walks come down a touch but his BABIP from last year and FIP are right in line with his ERA.  I want Trent to get more innings in at PB but he seems like the natural reliever to take over Gregerson’s spot at the back end of the pen.  Keep an eye on Trent as the year goes on; he may have more to show us. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Well, as the prospects thin out in the upper-minors, my job gets easier.  QC was full of a lot of arms that looked promising.  Palm Beach has some arms that need some more development time.  I’ve got Ottavino, Daniels, Gregerson and Vander Weg moving up to AA.

I need to get caught up on the prospects in the upcoming draft, so Move Him On Up will probably go on hiatus until after the draft. 

 (Note: All stats include games through 5/30 — which thankfully does not include the pitching meltdown from 5/31)