I’m not sure I see this as an even remotely possible scenario but one can hope right? Keith Law, who puts out some really solid scouting reports, has his draft projections at espn. It’s behind the subscription-wall-of-despair so I’m just going to let you know who he has falling (and I do mean falling) to the Cardinals at 18.
Most draft projectors consider Weiters a top-five pick. Law’s rationale is in large part that Scott Boras is Weiters’ agent. This strikes me as flawed for two reasons: 1) The Cardinals don’t seem to have a good relationship with Boras after the Jeff Weaver debacle and 2) Weiters is too damn good of a bat to fall to 18.
He also says that Matt Harvey could be taken by the Cardinals at 18. I think that’s a little more realistic. Check out the video of Harvey. He’s got some crazy tailing action on his fastball that cuts in to the rightside (although he doesn’t appear to have control of it) and his curveball is considered to be among the best in the draft. I’ve read a couple places that his fastball is too straight but those first couple pitches in the video don’t look straight in any facet to me. Harvey tops out around 93 (advertised at 94-95) and I’m not sure there’s a lot of upside to be had picking him.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
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I don’t know, not to argue for argument’s sake, but I think Harvey would be a fine pick. I think he has some good upside. Looking at the video I’m seeing the movement but not the velocity. Seems like he’s pretty slow to the plate. My money is on Michael Main. If they do end up with Wieters, I will literally pee my pants and do a happy dance.BA had Wieters falling to the Cards too. I don’t think the Weaver debacle would be too large of an obstacle, they signed Gary Daley, a Boras client last year.
I get that Boras is a signability issue, but I just can’t imagine 10+ teams taking a pass on his bat beacuse of money. That would be a huge steal for the Cardinals.
Law also had a blurb on Harvey — he went and saw Harvey the same day Jeff Luhnow did — and projects his ceiling at a number 3 starter. If they are going to pick an arm, I’d rather go with Brackman personally.
FWIW, Law had Cecil going at 36 to the Cardinals.
this is the 2nd mock draft to have wieters going to the cardinals as baseball america had the same projection in their first mock. like when baseball america had stephen drew going to the cardinals in their draft day mock in 2004, i think this is too good to be true. on the boras front, they did sign boras clients mark hamilton and gary daley last year and tyler greene and mark mccormick the year before.
harvey would be a very good pick at 18. he was considered the best high school pitching prospect in the draft, and while he has slid a little it has nothing to do with what he has done as he is still showing great stuff. he needs to speed up his delivery some, but he has a perfect, projectable pitcher’s frame at 6′4″ 190. he has an above average fastball in the 91-94 range and could add velocity as he fills out. his curve is also above average earning a grade of 65 according to baseball america. alan matthews said in a recent interview that his changeup is a plus pitch and he can spot it down and away from lefties. if all of that is true, he is an 18 year old with 3 above average pitches. that is pretty special.
as good as harvey is, i think michael main might just be better. he doesn’t have harvey’s size checking in at 6′1″ 170, but he is super athletic and some teams consider him a 5-tool centerfielder. while harvey has 2 above average pitches and 1 plus pitch, main has 2 plus, plus pitches. he can get his fastball up to 97 (and has hit 99 in the past), and it is said to have good life when he throws it down in the zone. in that same interview alan matthews said that main has an “outstanding” curveball that he commands very well and he said it was one of the best pitches in the draft. that means he has one of if not the best fastball in the draft and one of if not the best curveball in the draft with solid average command. that sounds an awful lot like tim lincecum to me.
From what I have read and heard about Main, I would love for him to become a Cardinal. I have also seen where Matt Dominguez has been anywhere from 8-12 on some of these Mock Drafts. It would be great if he were to fall a few spots to the Redbirds. I heard an interview with him and teammate Mike Moustakas on xm and they both seem like really good kids. And you know, every year at least one player falls from where the “experts” predicted he would be selected.
But who knows, these baseball Mock Drafts are even more of a shot in the dark than the football ones.
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If Matt Weiters does fall to us, I’ll think better of Law, but still not much.
mateodh…it feels at times i’m in the minority, but i like law. i don’t agree with him 100% of the time, esp. when he called for larussa’s head after his dui, but he knows his stuff.
I’m surprised Erik, Law doesn’t seem to be the type of writer you’d like (of course I know everything :p ), but I agree, he is at least a decent read the majority of the time. No way we get Weiters, and I don’t think we’ll nab Harvey either. I think ya’ll will find an odd draft from the cards, not bad, but not using the same stratagy they have recently.
I won’t disagree that he knows some stuff, didn’t he GM for Toronto or such? I usually give people the benefit of the doubt when it looks like they may have bias against the Cardinals, but not Law. Maybe I’m cheating myself of some good reads but I’m comfortable on this side of the line. Besides, if he says anything interesting I’m sure you’ll report it.
Law was part of the Toronto front office — although I don’t recall in what capacity. I like his scouting material on ball players but his general articles don’t usually appeal to me.