Future Redbirds

Most teams take the “draft the best available player” approach in the early rounds and rightfully so. They fill roster holes later on when they are picking largely on an individual scout liking a player. I’m not advocating a change in the draft approach but assuming they had two equal players available who profiled at different defensive positions, the team will probably pick to fill a perceived near-term or even long-term need for the team. So, what kind of prospect “depth” do we have at each position throughout the farm. Let’s make a quick list of the prospects that have some reasonable shot at making it to the bigs as more than just a fill in (i.e. Pujols misses a month, Tagg Bozied may come up but he’s not really the kind of depth we are looking for). Moving (loosely) through the more challenging to less challenging defensive positions:

Catcher: Bryan Anderson

Middle infielders: Tyler Greene, Jose Martinez

Centerfielder: Rick Ankiel, Colby Rasmus

3B: Allen Craig

Corner outfielders: John Rodriguez, Nick Stavinoha, Jon Jay

1B: Joe Mather, Brandon Buckman

Let’s be a little stricter with the pitchers. They either have to be holding their own at AAA or excelling at a level below that. It’s never easy to guess who’s going to be a servicable 5th starter because a lot of pitchers could fill that role and then implode — such is the tight rope of a marginal starting pitching prospect.

RH Starters: Blake Hawksworth, Anthony Reyes, Stuart Pomeranz, Adam Ottavino, Eddie Degerman, Shaun Garceau,

LH Starters: Jaime Garcia, Adam Daniels

RH Relievers: Andy Cavazos, Dennis Dove, Mike Sillman, Mark Worrell, Jason Motte, Chris Perez, Luke Gregerson, Kenny Maiques

LH Relievers: Troy Cate

Now before everyone chimes in with “AZ you forgot so and so”, I’m not trying to be 100% precise. We know the big three prospects of Rasmus, Anderson and Garcia but after that there’s a real drop off in ceiling and what we’ve actually seen players do. Ottavino may have a high ceiling, in my opinion, but until I see him face some advanced competition it’s hard to break into the level of the trio of 20 year olds at Springfield. I’m being harsh on this list for a reason, not a lot of prospects make it to the majors and have 5-10 years as a productive major leaguer. There’s a lot that fizzle out.

So where does this list leave us. I’m far more concerned with position players than I am the pitchers at first glance. In the middle infield, Greene and Martinez both remain raw and I’m stretching to include them on the list. I don’t think either are great bets to make the majors as more than utility men. Craig probably won’t stick at 3B defensively unless he shows some significant improvement in the near future. Defensively challenged 1B are easy to find (see: Jack Cust) on waivers and players can always move down the defensive spectrum if their bat will play. The organization really needs to address the problem in the middle infield and the hot corner (although Scott Rolen will probably be around for a while). I feel pretty good about the OF with Rasmus and Jay on their way through the system and Chris Duncan in LF at the bigs.

On the pitching side of things, can an organization ever have too many good LH pitchers? Tyler Johnson is in the bullpen now and Cate could probably take over Flores’ spot without too much of a dropoff but after that the LH relief corps is thin. Adam Daniels is a little old for his level but he’s got the stuff and frame to be a starter. Garcia may not be at the level of Hughes, Bailey, Gallarado, etc. but I’d be surprised if he didn’t make it as at least a middle-rotation type pitcher in the bigs with his combonation of groundballs and strikeouts. There’s a lot of RH middle relievers in AAA that could may find their way into a setup role because of deceptive deliveries (Worrell, Sillman) or raw velocity (Dove). Below that there’s closer’s at each level of the system with promise. We’ve also got some RH starters near the top in Hawksworth and, currently, Reyes with Adam Wainwright in the STL rotation already.

So, should this idea of organizational depth play a role in who the Cardinals target? Even for the first pick should they perhaps rank Ahrens over a Matt Harvey given the chance? I’m curious what everyone else things because outside of the Cardinals first two picks(#18 and #36), I’d like to see them try and address the more glaring weaknesses of the organization.