Here’s Kevin’s latest and probably last mock draft. It’s a free article.
And here is his projected pick for the Cards:
The Cardinals are a real wild card. Always tight-lipped, St. Louis has tended to go conservative and college-heavy under scouting director Jeff Luhnow, while throwing the occasional curveball with a high-ceiling talent like Colby Rasmus—who established himself as the top prospect in the system. No such position player makes sense at 18, so the guess here is that they’ll return to the college route here with the only center fielder worthy of a first-round pick in Borbon, yet another Boras client.
Pick: Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee
I think I’ll puke if this happens. Here’s what Goldstein said about Julio Borbon in his article yesterday when he ranked this year’s top 50 draftees according to talent-
25. Pros: Top college leadoff hitter is plus-plus runner with line-drive bat; plus range in center field.
Cons: Hampered by an ankle injury much of the year; not an instinctual basestealer; limited power ceiling; weak arm.
He forgot one rather large con. Borbon has taken a whopping total of 6 walks all season! I just can’t see Luhnow overlooking that fact. Borbon is an athlete, I’m sure. However he strikes me as probably the most overrated player of the draft. Goldstein did also say in his chat today that the Cards are pretty hard to get a read on this year, so I’m sure he doesn’t mind if he’s off-base.
Elsewhere, Bryan Smith has Casey Weathers going to the Cards in his latest mock.
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Casey Weathers, rhp, Vanderbilt
I’ve made the association between Weathers and the Cardinals for a long time, because it makes sense on multiple levels. Luhnow is a college-first guy, and more importantly, the Cardinals have huge bullpen needs that Weathers can address quickly and effectively. Unless they look to make a big monetary splash, Weathers is the pick.
I like Weathers more then my compadre AZ here, but even I’m not really keen on them taking a college closer first. I think this is the year the Cardinals break from their beaten path of “safe” #1 picks. At least I hope.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
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roarke49
theredbaaron
Awesome, another line drive-hitting college outfielder with no power!
I will stab Jeff Luhnow in the throat. I don’t want to do it, but I will do it.
thanks for killing my excitement for the draft. i am psyched for whoever the cards get, unless it’s a a juan pierre clone or a college relief pitcher…please be wrong!!!
What scares me is that Luhnow has drafted players with very similar profiles in Shane Robinson and Chris Perez. (Robinson was a 5th round pick and Perez was supplemental so I hope they wouldn’t go with that mold of player at 18.)
I’m just not a fan of picking relievers in the first round (unless you want to convert them to starters). They’re too fungible on a roster. Draft the starters and then go all reverse-Braden Looper on them and turn them into a closer if need be.
Perez was supposed to address those bullpen problems quickly and he’s mired in AA with a hideous walk rate.
PG David Rawnsley’s newest mock: (Rawnsley will be one of the guys doing the draft with ESPN2)
“18. ST. LOUIS . Todd Frazier, ss, Rutgers. The scouting opinion on Frazier would be easier to read if there was any sort of consensus on what position he will be playing in 3-5 years.”
Also, just noticed in Golstein’s mock that he has Porcello falling to the Tigers at #27.
I swear if Porcello falls to 18 and the Cards are to cheap to draft him, my head will probably explode.
Porcello probably has the highest ceiling in this draft.
I’d be fine with a middle infielder like Frazier, Ahrens or Kozma. The profiles I’ve read about the top-rated college outfielders make hope the Cardinals take none of them. I’d also stay away from relief pitcher at #18.
I don’t get it. Arguably, the best draft (2005) by Luhnow was the draft that he picked some high risk high school players. The worst draft was the one he went extreme moneyball with all but one player from college (2004). Also, the best players in his system…at least the most advanced for their age are from high school. If he is a stats guy, how is he not noticing those stats. The 2004 draft was horrible. The 2005 draft seems good. The 2006 draft was less than exciting.
bill…i don’t think luhnow was over the 04 draft, just 05
Erik,
I think he was. Look at this old article from the birdhouse
- look at the date. I think he was hired in October 2003. Maybe you are saying you think he had nothing to do with that draft…which may be true.
My arguement is that was a horrible draft. It screams stat guys…moneyball…college only. 2005 was great. Look at who we are excited about. A lot of them are HS guys with some upside - Rasmus, Anderson, Garcia, Herron, Garceau. All HS from 2005. 2006 we went heavier college again. It will be interesting to see how that goes.
Hey Erik - I love this site. I can’t live without this and VEB - daily. Thanks again.
The Cards have great Bullpen needs? So they should take Weathers? Please. Who’s this guy been watching. The bullpen is the strength of the big club as well as having some good bullpen prospects.
Erik,
Sorry, forgot to post a link. Again, hired before the 2004 draft…though I don’t know whether he worked on the draft.
http://www.thestlcardinals.com/JeffLuhnowI.html