like i said, baseball america had him ranked 24th in their final draft tracker. that is not a mock, that is their ranking of the top 30 players available for the draft. 24th overall is not middle of the supplemental round talent. he was the 2nd best position player that was still available according to that top 30 behind julio borbon, and personally i would rather have the shortstop than another speedy leadoff type centerfielder. if they wanted a position player, he was the best one available.

My concern now is that I think the mistake is being componded by ideas like not starting the college pitchers at a higher level. I hope that isn’t the case because the low minors are already crowded by finesse guys with questionable stuff.

I’ve been impressed with Luhnow but some of the things from this interview were mind-boggling answers. Stabalizing the economics of the draft? Mortensen doesn’t need projection? The constant rambling about Kozma’s intangibles. I’m baffled by some of what is said.

SleepyCA - Slugging in high school does not equate to slugging in the majors. Kozma doesn’t have a muscular frame that lends itself to power. It’s the one tool that he’s weakest in. The list of SS that hit 30 HRs isn’t very long and Kozma isn’t going to join it unless he takes a tremendous leap forward. I’m sticking with my Marcus Giles comparison. There’s no one who projects Kozma as a middle of the order slugger.

LBoros - The Russell pick was great in the fourth round. I probably would have been ok with it in the 1st round. The hoard of college pitchers being selected was incredibly frustrating to watch being selected because they all seem to be largely the same player. Not only that but we have half a dozen of those players in our system already. And then, they’re all going to start at short-season ball. That’s a huge let down for the draft in my mind. I’m not sure I like any of the pitchers except Todd who probably winds up in the bullpen.

Given that they snagged Russell in the 4th, that literally saved the first day’s draft in my opinion as he’s the only high ceiling player (despite the Garciaparra comparisons for Kozma). The Cardinals played it safe in day two and drafted a bunch of older college players again. For a team that wants to build for the long term they need to find more Colby Rasmus’s.

FGC - I won’t say overdraft. That’s too strong a connotation for me. He was a reach and I think Kozma had a good chance of falling to the supplemental round. One problem with draft mock ups is that they aren’t based on talent alone. Talent-wise Kozma is middle of the supplemental round. Signability moves some players up and some down. Kozma moved up. The Cardinals had a chance to really make a splash with their first pick. They decided to sit on the side of the pool and ease their legs in. Again, I think Kozma is a fine prospect. . .just not who the Cardinals should have taken at #18. Even if Kozma had been taken, Jackson and Cumberland lasted until 45 and 46 who would have been respectable choices at 36.

here is what john manuel said on the cards pick in a chat today

Q: Jared from St. Louis asks:
Pete Kozma at 18? Couldn’t we have gotten him at 36? Also, based on your scouting reports seems like the Cards picked up some good arms in the supp. and 2nd round. Your thoughts? Will they get Russell signed?

A: John Manuel: Au contrare . . . I like Kozma at 18 a lot, he’s a HS bat who can stay at SS, and he makes sense at 18, you could make the case that he’s better than Kevin Ahrens who went at 16, and I think it was a good pick.

he doesn’t think it was a reach

here’s the question: let’s say the cards had taken kyle russell at #18. still would have been a reach, but many projectors had russell as a late first-rounder / early supp pick, and i believe that if the cards had grabbed him at 18 it would have been perceived less as a “reach” than as a team being really excited about a player with a great power-hitting record. he fits the profile of a #1: high ceiling, plus tool(s), and a bit of financial risk, because russell won’t be an automatic sign.

then, at 36, let’s say kozma is still on the board and the cardinals grab him there — about where he was projected to go. good player for a 1A — good, safe insurance policy in case the riskier pick at #1 washes out.

let’s say the 2d round goes exactly the same — kopp and todd go at 71 and 82, which is about where they both were projected to go.

in the 3d round, at 112, the cards take mortensen.

in the 4th, at 142, they take descalso.

the cardinals would have ended up with the exact same players, but they just would have taken them in a different order. if it had gone down that way, do you believe it would have felt differently to you — would it have seemed like a better draft?