Future Redbirds

Great minds think alike. We both stopped by the BP chat with Bryan Smith today. Here’s the two queries for your reading pleasure.

Erik (Cedar Rapids, IA): All and all when you look at the Cardinals picks this year, there were some puzzlers. Particularly Clay Mortenson. Do you buy the fact that the Cardinals had to select him in the supplemental round when most had him pegged as more of a 3rd round talent? And who in the world is David Delscalso?

Bryan Smith: Erik, I think Jeff Luhnow has been pretty insightful in regards to Clay Mortensen, and he really believed Mortensen wouldn’t last far beyond where they drafted him. I believe that — people in the industry talk, and you get ideas of where guys might go. Mortensen is what the Cardinals love: a sinkerballer that came cheap so they can sign Kyle Russell and maybe Tyler Henley. Descalso is a 3b/2b with great contact skills, but I fail to see how he’s any better than USC’s Matt Cusick. Different strokes, I suppose.

I’ll let erik comment on his question but there’s nothing in here that makes me think Mortensen will be successful. If they drafted him to sign Kyle Russell, well, that’s more palatable. They had better sign Russell.

azruavatar (STL, MO): There’s been some griping about the Cardinals picking Pete Kozma at #18. Ignoring players like Porcello who were rumored to have exceptional bonus demands, was this the best player left at #18? Also, what kind of player comp should we expect? (At least one Cardinal scout has bandied about a Nomar Garciaparra comparison. Another scout has done the same with Jack Wilson.)

Bryan Smith: Well, he wasn’t the best player left on my board, but it’s important to trust your scouts and it sounds like everyone and their brother within the organization saw Kozma. I don’t think he’s Nomar or Jack Wilson, his bat probably plays somewhere in between. I think the best hope is someone like Edgar Renteria, a really smooth shortstop with solid numbers up the middle every season.

Edgar Renteria. . .Marcus Giles (my Kozma comp). Looking at their stats, they aren’t that dissimilar of players (positions aside). Giles has taken a precipitous decline the last two years and Edgar had some flops (Boston) in their as well. They’re both useful players to have on your team, especially at league minimum. I’m still not convinced that Pete Kozma was a first round talent or that he was the right pick for the Cardinals at #18.

Update: A veritable Cardinal goldmine chat. Here’s some praise for Rasmus:

jay2436 (bmore): Where has Colby Rasmus placed himself on the prospect map with his outstanding month of May? Is he a top-10 guy next year? And any chance he gets a cup of coffee this year?

Bryan Smith: I love Colby Rasmus, watched him play in Davenport some last season and fell in love with that swing. I thought the spread between him and McCutchen was overstated before the season, and I think you see that spread shrink completely when new prospect rankings come out. I don’t think the Cardinals should worry about a cup of coffee yet, unless he’s tearing up the minors in August and they want to get him acquainted to Major League life. But he’s really good, and he’ll replace Jimmy Edmonds just fine.

Given that Colby gets off to slow stats at every level, unless the Cardinals are committed to giving him 200 consecutive ABs (or there abouts) I don’t like the idea of a callup.

Mike (NY): Colby Rasmus reminds me a lot of Grady Sizemore do you agree. I think Rasmus should be ahead of Maybin. Maybin only hits groundballs and struggles to get lift off his bat.

Bryan Smith: Sizemore works pretty well offensively, Rasmus probably doesn’t have huge power but he has a beautiful swing and does everything well. However, while Rasmus matches in terms of Sizemore’s throwing arm, the range is different — Sizemore glides in center, Rasmus is average-at-best. Maybin is still the better prospect because he’s a tools freak, and while the groundballs have been a concern, the Tigers will probably add a little leverage and Maybin will take off. He’s a top five prospect, Rasmus is (at least) top 15 or 20.

I’ve been saying the Sizemore comparison for years. I think Rasmus takes a little bit too much criticism on his defense. I think he’s got more upside than an average defensive CF but I don’t think he’ll match Sizemore in that department. Still Rasmus coming close to Grady Sizemore should teach the Cardinals to take some high upside HS players more often.

Cardinals645 (Santa Barbara, Ca): Where does this draft put the Cardinals‘ system? Is it much better now? And how soon can we expect to see some Cardinals prospects in the majors?

Bryan Smith: The Cardinals system is looking pretty good right now, with Garcia, Rasmus and Brian Anderson [AZ: He means Bryan Anderson obviously -- you'd think he'd remember that since he spells his name that way as well] all playing well, and Tyler Herron looking great in the Midwest League. The 2007 draft helps a lot, because Pete Kozma is right there, and if they sign Kyle Russell, he’s another top ten bat. And honestly, one we haven’t talked about is Jess Todd, who I told one Cardinal e-mailer could be the best draft pick of the group before it’s all said and done. He was nasty in one Division I season.

Nice to hear on Todd. Notice he doesn’t really say anything else about the plethora of college pitching clones the Cardinals took in the early middle rounds. There’s a reason for that . . .