Future Redbirds

Move Him On Up Installments: QC Hitters, QC Pitchers, PB hitters, PB Pitchers, SP Hitters

I have a confession to make. Maybe it’s the concept of TINSTAAPP or the fact that I love pitcher’s duels but I love looking at pitching prospects. Colby Rasmus is undoubtedly the best prospect in our system and yet for me, he’s far from the most interesting. I know, I know — I’m just this side of crazy but it’s the truth. The low minors give a lot of pitchers the mirage of prospectdom (see Trey Hearne QC 2006). Whether it’s age or facing inferior competition or batters simply not having the muscle to clobber bad pitches, the Cardinals minor league system has a lot of pitching in the low minors.

Of that pitching, very little of it will make it to the majors. Of relievers, Maiques and Gregerson are the only two that will probably make it past 50IP in the majors. I’m not a fan of relievers as prospects so it’s hard to get excited about middle relievers putting up good numbers. The starters are a little more promising. Ottavino is an obvious answer and I like Adam Daniels (I wish I was lefthanded — and talented for that matter). Eddie Degerman, Tyler Herron and Shaun Garceau are nice prospects down in low-A. That’s not to say that other pitchers couldn’t emerge (Blake King, PJ Walters) but I like those 5 as the best shots to contribute at the major leageue level. What’s frustrating is that after high-A, the system is bereft of almost any real pitching prospects. But without dithering around for much longer let’s see who is on the way up from Palm Beach:

Adam Ottavino - DOB: 11/22/1985

Adam Daniels - DOB: 08/16/1982

Luke Gregerson - DOB: 05/14/1984

Scott Vander Weg - DOB: 12/14/1982

Two relievers and two starters. I think we can sort through some of the crap less talented pitching at Springfield to make room. When we move them up we’ve got to have room at Memphis (not a problem). Springfield pitchers are looking up at:

Starting Pitchers: Blake Hawksworth, Mike Parisi, Chris Narveson (DL)

Relief Pitchers: Troy Cate, Dennis Dove (DL), Chris Lambert, Mike Sillman, Mark Worrell

That’s a relief core with some upside. Troy Cate is starting right now but he’s the next Randy Flores. He’ll be converted back to relief as soon as the Cardinals realize he’s not capable of getting through the lineup more than once. The starters are nothing to get too excited about but I’ll look at everyone’s upside when we get to Memphis. For now let’s see who has earned a promotion from Springfield.

Solving the Staters:

Kevin Ool - DOB: 01/04/1981

2007 Stats: 43IP, 5.44 ERA, 10.6% K rate, 5.85 BsRA9

Kevin Ool is 26. Kevin Ool is a converted reliever (which has failed). Kevin Ool has not been a good pitcher in three years at AA. Kevin Ool has no future with the organization. Verdict: Bullpen or the boot

Mitchell Boggs - DOB: 02/15/1984

2007 Stats: 68IP, 4.24 ERA, 14.9% K rate, 10.4% BB rate, 4.20 FIP

All his peripherals support that Boggs has been a mediocre pitcher. I’m certainly not advocating writing him off like I did Ool but Boggs is feeling the hurt of not being in A-ball anymore. His walk rate has climbed his K rate has declined and he’s allowing more hits. Boggs is only 23 so he’s still got time and he isn’t getting hammered at this new level of competition having only allowed 4 HR in 68 IP and batters slugging under .400 against him. Looking at his splits by inning, Boggs is getting hit hard in the 4th inning. If I can speculate wildly on why, that would be around the time the heart of the opposing lineup would see Boggs for the second time. I imagine hitters are getting better reads on his fastball. Again, wild speculation, but he should make sure that he’s varying his pitches the second time through the lineup to give them something new to look at. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Jaime Garcia - DOB: 07/08/1986

2007 Stats: 67.2IP, 3.72ERA, 60K:30BB, 2.09 GO:AO, 4.68FIP

Everyone heard of young Jaime (prounounced Hi-may) as he rocketed up prospect watch lists pitching in the Futures Game and splitting time between Quad Cities and Palm Beach. Easily the best pitching prospect in the Cardinals’ system he combines high-K rates with high-groundball rates. He features a very good curveball to go with his heavy sinking fastball. He’s been accused of falling in love with the curveball and falling into a predictable pattern of pitch selection. If I was a 20-year-old with a plus-curveball, please excuse me if I threw it just to admire it leave my hand. While he’s holding his own at AA, Garcia’s walk rate has doubled and he’s had problems going deep into games. There’s no reason to rush this one. Verdict: Stayin put’

Cory Rauschenberger - DOB: 07/31/1984

2007 Stats: 57.1IP, 5.97 ERA, 11.7% K rate

This is the stuff that makes me want to go knock on Luhnow’s door and have a chat. I’m baffled why players like Rauschenberger (formerly Cory Meacham) is allowed to continually suck at pitching while better prospects are left mired below him. Maybe they “see” something in Cory but I see Adam Ottavino as being the better pitcher between the two with better odds to pitch well at Springfield. I just don’t understand it. There’s not alot to say about Cory. In 2006, he put up some decent ERAs with shoddy peripherals and has been terrible during 2007. 10 HRs in 57 innings, blech. Verdict: Bullpen or the boot

Routing the Relievers:

Jason Motte - DOB: 06/22/1982

2007 Stats: 32IP, 30K:14BB, 2.98FIP, 14.4% BB rate (at Springfield)

Motte converted from crappy-hitting catcher to respectable relief prospect to start out 2006. He’s still striking out batters at a good rate in Springfield but his walk rate has tripled in the 22 innings. It’s not something to be concerned about yet. He’s got time to work through his control issues but I worry about his repetoire. Relying on a fastball with zip, I don’t know if he has the secondary stuff to make it through the ranks. Again, he’s got time to work on that. Control issues aside, when you strikeout batters like Motte does you can get away with walking batters like Brandon Morrow does. If I was the Cardinals, I’d dump everybody who’s anybody of a reliever into AAA. And since the whole point of this exercise is for me to make the decisions. . . Verdict: Move him on up

Nick Webber - DOB: 05/09/1984

2007 Stats: 31.1IP, 24K:14BB, 2.04 GO:AO, 3.01FIP

Looks an awful lot like Motte’s line. Webber was a starter last year in Palm Beach and was shifted over to relief after striking out less than 4.5/9IP. He had a 1:1 K:BB ratio and survived mainly on his strong groundball tendencies. He’s done better in the pen but I’m not overly optomistic about him as a prospect. He seems like the last member of a bad bullpen. With Motte moving up, I’ll leave Webber here to see if he can get the Ks up a touch more. Verdict: Stayin’ put

Matthew Scherer - DOB: 01/20/1983

2007 Stats: 34.2IP, 36K:13BB, 3.73 FIP, 11.45K/9 vs. RH

Why doesn’t he get more press? While pitchers like Sillman and Perez and Worrell steal the ink, Scherer struck out 106 in 80.1 innings last year at Palm Beach. He had a 5:1 K:BB ratio in 2006. 106 punchouts is more than some of the finesse and control college starters the Cardinals persist in drafting. As expected the K rate is coming down and the walk rate went up as he graduated to AA this year. He’s got some ROOGy splits going on here too. He strikes out nearly 5 more batters per 9IP from the right side compared to the left this year. Last year the split was 3K/9. I’d guess his breaking stuff doesn’t play as well to LH as it does to RH but still the K rates are more than acceptable. Again, getting overshadowed by players like Perez is easy to do but Scherer has the numbers that point to an MLB setup man upside. Verdict: Move him on up

Chris Perez - DOB: 07/01/1985

2007 Stats: 27.1 IP, 44K:15BB, 0.48 GO:AO, .149 OBA

Let me be clear about this: I don’t like teams drafting college relievers in the first round. It almost never makes sense given their limited role and unless you end up with a Joe Nathan or Francisco Rodriguez, it just doesn’t have the impact that a 1st round pick should. I understand why teams pick relievers high (Rockies picked Weathers #8 this year), I just think it’s a bad strategy. That said, Perez has delivered on most of what was promised. He’s a potential closer with a plus-slider and plus-fastball (in terms of velocity). The difference between Perez-decent-MLB-setup-man and Perez-good-not-great-closer is command. It’s not all there in the walks. Perez tends to lose any command of the strike zone whatsoever which leads to wild pitches, walks and hit batters. When he’s good, he’s o so good. When he’s bad, he’s o so bad. Still, you draft these types of relievers to move quickly and Perez has earned a promotion again. Verdict: Move him on up

So I’ve made room for Ottavino and Daniels in the rotation by doing away with the craptacular duo of Ool and Rauschenberger. I don’t really care where they go be it to the bullpen or another team. They just aren’t starters and that’s not difficult to see. The relievers at AA are pretty intriguing even if the starters aren’t. Moving up players like Perez, Motte and Scherer with their high-strikeout potential isn’t hard given some of the mediocrity that currently resides in Memphis. Sadly, I won’t be sending Memphis any starters.

Next time, I’ll look at the Memphis position players and a) make room for the promotions from Springfield and b) determine what the upside is for the players there.