First of all, hat’s off to AZ for coming up with some great daytime posts this week. Sadly, I’ve been busy, busy, dreadfully busy (sorry, I really am not a fan of musicals–at all. That was my wife’s influence there) and haven’t had much time to post this week, hopefully I’ll have some good topics this weekend.
Anyway, today I just have a quickie post that I hope generates some discussion–
Who in your opinion is the most overrated Cardinal prospect? Drop your thoughts in the comments, with your reasoning on why you believe that.
Also, who in your opinion is the most underrated? Defend your position.
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Most Overrated - Chris Perez He’s got great stuff but horrible command and he’s a reliever. I’m of the opinion that most fans still haven’t come to grips with how little relievers impact the game.
Most Underrated - Matthew Scherer Perez steals all the ink but Scherer’s got a better track record. A 5:1 K rate and 106Ks in 80 innings for Palm Beach last year. Totally overlooked. Yes, he’s a reliever but he gets almost zero recognition it seems.
I think that its very easy for a prospect in the Cardinal’s system to become overated given the lack of impact talent in the organization.
To me this is a hard question. For underrated I am going to pull for Slick Rick the hitter. His lack of at-bats and injuries still make him an unknown, but I’m pulling for him.
As far as overrated, does Chris Lambert still count as a prospect? I know he is a former first-round pick and plays along side Ankiel, but is it too much to ask that that Detroit loses its mind and takes him as the PTBNL?
Using BA’s Top 10 at the beginning of the year (by Goold) as what constitutes a rating…
Overrated - Hawksworth (#3). Never thrown more than 84 innings in a year. Strikes out a decent amount of hitters (7.5/9 last year, though only 4.9/9 so far this year) and has had some success at AAA (had a dynamite May) which presumably accounts for his high ranking. I just don’t see this guy as a reliable #4 or #5. Is it arm trouble that has caused him to miss so many games or freak injuries?
Underrated - Based on Goold, it would be Anderson (#6). A catcher with the bat he’s shown at 20 years old in AA is incredible. Yadi better hit. Since Anderson’s played so well this year and is attending the futures game, though, I’ll say he’s not really underrated at this point. So I’ll go with Luke Gregerson. Yeah, he’s a 23 year old reliever in A ball, but he hasn’t allowed a HR in 2 years (granted, only 70 innings), has a GO/AO of almost 3 and more than 10K/9 innings. Get him to Springfield.
Travis Hanson 40 man roster
2005 hit 20 hr 97 rbi in 546 ab top 3 prospect
2006-07 6 hr 41 rbi in 641 ab
how the mighty have fallen
underrated: this one is a no brainer
Jarrett Hoffpauir middle infielder batting .346
also nice story on Jarrett Hoffpauir on your site.
who is above him on the food chain. kennedy,miles,ryan,mccoy,nelson
andrew–i’m with ya, i keep rating him up there with everyone else but i’m not a fan of his low k rate and injury history. i don’t see him lasting in the bigs long, frankly. daryl jones seems pretty overrated…all tools, no substance so far.
underrated i’d have to say hoffpauir, at least right now. shaun garceau has been shelled a couple times lately, i really like him thought and i haven’t seen him on many’s radar
Underrated: Since I must go with what I read this is a tough call and here is my reasoning. Let’s use J. Hoffpauir as an example. Right now he is tearing up AA. But, if he never receives the opportunity to advance then you never really no if he is underrated or not. If he does advance and fails then he suddenly he has been overrated. I read that he is only average defensively. Maybe this is what holds him back. You need solid gloves up the middle. Luke Gregerson, his stats look good. If Gregerson throws in the 90s and has one other quality pitch then I would go with him being the most underrated as most of what you hear is about Chris Perez. If he does not have these pitches then I would say he is just getting 120% of his ability as a reliever.
Overrated: Is easy, for the most part the entire group of starting pitchers in the minor league system. I have said this before, I do not believe that currently the Cardinals have what would be considered on talent alone a front of the rotation starting pitcher prospect in the system. It seems that for the last 5 or 6 years our top crop of starters is always in A or AA and never materialize at the major league level. I hope I am wrong and we have more than #4 or #5 bottom of the rotation pitchers waiting in the wings. More than anything else, top starting pitching prospects in the minors are a firm foundation for success in the big show.
John - re: minor league starters…I’d say that Reyes and Wainwright have been potential middle (Wagonmaker)-to-top (Reyes) of the rotation types, looking at performance in the minors. Remember–Walt wouldn’t touch them in any potential deals in the past two years. Currently, I’d say we’ve got two with middle of the rotation stuff: Garcia (AA) and Ottavino (A). Who knows where they’ll end up, but there are some potential options for ‘09. Top of the rotation guys, we simply don’t draft ‘em b/c they cost too much.
For what it’s worth, I asked Keith Law on ESPN’s chat about Ottavino’s potential: “Reliever.”
Ottavino isn’t as highly regarded in the prospect community as he may be here. Goldstein said he’s a #3 in a perfect world. Law viewing him as a reliever doesn’t surprise me. The knock is that he has a good 4-seam fastball without the secondary pitches to complement it. That won’t work in the high minors.
Despite that, I think he’s got #2 potential. He’s not going to be an ace but I think in a perfect world he’ll post some sub 4 ERAs and come in the bottom half of a Cy Young vote or two.
Overrated: Yeah, Chris Perez works. I’m rooting for the guy, but I don’t think he’s going to be as good as we hope. I think Jon Jay should get some overrated nods, too. I was really hoping he could prove something at Springfield.
Underrated: I’m just not sure since I’ve never seen any of them believe, but I’m rooting hard for guys who probably won’t get a lot of respect like Garceau, Herron, Norrick, Ottavino and Degerman.
That should be “I’ve never seen any of them play”
Underrated - Tyler Greene, Tyler Herron, Nick Webber, Nick Stavinoha, Josh Wilson, Mark McCormick. If you were to tell me last year Greene would have an OPS in AA that was roughly equal to his OPS split between high A and his demotion to low A I would be ecstatic… Tyler is lights out this year and has a chance at AA next year as a 20 year old… I like Webber alot and think his sinkerball tendencies will be a fit in the loo… Stavinoha has an OPS better than 1000 against lefties — why isn’t he Dunc’s platoon partner again? — Wilson and McCormick have significant upside (vs. Pomeranz) and have been injured…
Overrated - This one is tough, b/c the only prospects that the mavens think are worth a damn are Colby, Bryan, Jaime and Chris — soooooo you can’t have much over rated if no one thinks you have anything — maybe Dennis Dove, Trey Hearne (sadly), John Jay
To date C. Rasmus seems to be highly over rated and A. Craig is vastly under rated
i think colby rasmus is highly overrated, lets see if this guy can even make it past aaa
How in the world can he be overrated?
overrated -mccormick, hasnt done anything & when he does pitch cant throw strikes.
all they do is talk about rasmus. = overrated
if rasmus is overrated then mcdonalds if fast food … meaning hes certainly not overrated, hes floats like a butterfly in the field and stings like a daggum hornet at the plate, whats not to like?
Good god I hope you guys are joking about Rasmus.
He started the year as one of the 5 youngest players in AA, is now still one of 10 youngest players in AA.
Go look at his splits, there pretty amazing. Better yet, if you take out the time where he said he was sick, his stats would be unbelievable. While the likes of Jay Bruce and Cam Maybin are putting up BABIP over .400 for the season, Rasmus’ is at .273 that is a huge difference. While Rasmus may not have the best range in center he is still fast and has an absolute gun for an arm. Look at the kids LD% it’s better than Bruce’s and hits the ball in the air a lot more while striking out less.
Rasmus is without a doubt a top 20 prospect right now, and some even think top 10.
I haven’t heard a lot of people talk about Tyler Herron so I’ll say he’s my underrated guy, and he should at least be in Hi A, because he is doing very very well where he is now.
I don’t think you can write off Chris Perez because of one stat. He’s given up 16 hits in 31.1 innings. His WHIP is 1.21. Lefties have just 4 hits off him in 11.1 IP. He has 50 Ks.
I still think this guy has a world of potential. He was the College World Series just 12 months ago, and now he’s in AA. That’s a pretty fast ascent.
Cardinal Fan Nation wise: I have to go with Ankiel as overrated. Geez, I get sick of listening people talk of him as the savior of the season. His OBP is horrible, which is generated by his approach at the plate which is an all or nothing swing. He swings from his heels everytime. Cut down on the K rate and increase the BB rate, and then just maybe we will talk. (Side note: Eric, I owe you more pictures. My dad is bringing me the card with Springfield on it, so maybe we can talk about me just buring you a disc of all of them and sending them to you.)
I also like the vote for Chris Perez and would personally call him the guy I overrated. Though, if you see his slider in person you will fall in love with it as well. If he improves the command, he would come off this list pretty quickly.
Under rated, by Cardinal Nation? I would have to go with Jamie Garcia. He’s getting mentioned as a Top 100 prospect, and seems to get lost in the discussion.
Under rated by me: Joe Mather. I’m sorry Joe, I believe now that the old for the level thing is overrated. I don’t know if it is the ice cream or the approach, but dude, you can flat out mash. I don’t know if you will be more than a fourth outfielder, but I didn’t even have you down for that. I’m sorry.
Overrated: Blake Hawksworth. The decline in Ks is troublesome.
Underrated: I want to say Mark Hamilton, but until he gets going in AA, it doesn’t make much sense to say that. Instead, I’ll go with Mark Worrell.