The Cardinals had the opportunity to sign AJ Burnett for 2006 but that ship has sailed. He went to Toronto for a 5year 55 million dollar contract. The contract included (and why GMs continue to put stupid clauses like this in contracts beats me) an opt-out clause after 2008. Given the pitching market and Burnett’s stuff, it’s not unreasonable to think he could do better than 12M a year. That being said, he wanted to come to St. Louis in ‘06 so what about now? Could we trade for him and not have him opt out? Even if he did, he’d probably bring in some nice draft picks in compensation.
Outside of Mark Buerhle there are very few players liable to shake loose before the deadline that are actually worth making a trade for. I wasn’t expecting to do more than one Raiding the Farm piece but recent comments by Riccardi show a rift between player and front office. Talk of it at VeB today and a comment I left there a few days ago have it on my mind again. If Burnett were to become available, what would it take for the Cardinals to get him and should they given cost and risk?
Let’s address the arm issue first. AJ Burnett is on the DL. He threw 130 pitches in a game not too long ago and then complained of arm discomfort. Surprise! Toronto has also steadfastly skipped the last spot in their rotation denying Burnett any additional days off. I won’t shy away from calling Burnett an injury-prone pitcher but he’s also an above average pitcher when healthy. He’s thrown 120, 209, 135.2 innings in 2004-2006. That’s right around 150 IP for a three year average. Let’s use that as our baseline. I’m really distrustful of ERA but for simplicity’s sake (because I’ve looked at the peripherals — they’re plenty good) let’s use ERA+. He had a 112, 117, 118 in those same three years. Again, let’s be conservative and say that he puts up a 110 ERA+ mark moving forward.
A pitcher that throws 150 innings at 110 ERA+ is a good pitcher. Maybe not durable but definitely good. The current league average ERA is around 4.50 so a 110 ERA+ translates into roughly a 4.10 ERA. Let’s adjust for AL -> NL switch and the mediocrity of the NL Central and say that he can reasonably post a sub-4 ERA for the next few years if he pitched for the Cardinals. Toronto’s overall defense is better than the Cardinals but that stems mainly from their outfield. STL has a better infield defense (per THT stats) and Burnett’s slight groundball tendencies probably lend themselves to our conclusion that he could post around a 3.75-4.00 ERA over 150 innings. Assuming that those other 50 innings are picked up by a replacement level starter, at worst you’re looking at 200 league average innings for ~12.5M.
So do I think AJ Burnett is a good buy right now. Yes I do. If the Blue Jays are willing to kick in any of the contract then he becomes an even better buy. (This is assuming he doesn’t have a significant pitching injury requiring TJ/labrum/rotatorcuff surgery.) The next question is, what would Toronto want?
Their OF has fixtures in center (Vernon Wells), right (Alex Rios) and left (Adam Lind). So there’s nothing playing there. 3B is manned by the oft-injured Troy Glaus who has been very good this year. Lyle Overbay is across from the Hot Corner and has been above average although he’s found his way to the DL as well. Their middle infield has been terrible but the Cardinals have no depth at 2B or SS so there’s really nothing brewing there.
The rotation has had it’s ups and downs but Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan have all been adequate (Marcum’s actually been superb). They’ve tried a few guys in the back end including rookie Jesse Litsch, Victor Zambrano, Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers. None have stuck in a rotation spot during their brief stints. The bullpen has righties Jeremy Accardo and Casey Jansen with Scott Downs from the left holding things together after BJ Ryan’s elbow finally gave way. So if this deal is going to happen, it will revolve around pitching.
I think the best bet the Cardinals have is to try a “change of scenery” trade with Anthony Reyes again. The Cardinals will probably need to include a pitching prospect along the lines of Dennis Dove, Chris Perez or Mark Worrell to go along with Reyes given how down his stock is. This trade may be seen as trading pennies on the dollar but I think Reyes’ upside is something along the lines of Burnett. It’s a trade that helps the Blue Jays unload some payroll and a pitcher they are unhappy with while filling out the back of their rotation with another upside arm and a good relief prospect. The particulars may not be right but I don’t think this is an unreasonable exchange given how valuable young players still under a teams control are. Whether the Blue Jays would bite is another question but with JP Riccardi’s statistical bent and the fact that Burnett may bolt after ‘08, he may see the pitcher that Reyes’ minor league numbers suggest and not the pitcher his major league numbers have shown.
A trade that can bring in a quality arm without destroying the system (aka Rasmus, Anderson, Garcia) is one that should be seriously considered.
Filed under: Raiding the Farm
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
reyes and perez for a relatively healthy burnett, sign me up.
Verrryyyy tempting - Just depends on whether you think the Cards are contenders or pretenders. In a perfect world, my personal thought is that seeing as our “odds” of making the playoffs sit in the 1% range (per baseball prospectus) maybe we should go with youth. Practically though it just seems like Reyes will not get a shot with Dunc and LaRussa (not Steve Carlton like but in that vein…)
So,,, My guess is that if got Burnett we would want to ship some Salary up to Toronto. How about this deal:
Looper, Reyes and pick a C level prospect for Burnett
The Jays get a 5th starter relatively cheap and a guy with some upside along with relief help for a guy they no longer want anyway. The Cards get a guy that along with Carp and Wainright would make for a formidable playoff rotation…
Another interesting thought is whether Burnett would waive his “out” clause for the opportunity to play with the Cards… If so, the deal would be alot easier to make…
I like the idea of getting Burnett, since he’d be under contract for an extended period. Particularly if Toronto would pick up some salary. I guess this discussion is proceeding under the assumption that he’s coming of the DL before the deadline. Could he make it through waivers? I’d prefer to wait and do this deal during the off-season, unless we do happen to make a push this month. That way we aren’t paying his large salary during a year we aren’t going to make the post-season. Does the bidding generally go up in the off-season?
Reyes and Perez, I’d do it.
“Looper, Reyes and pick a C level prospect for Burnett”
No one in the AL East is going to want Looper as a pitcher. Regardless of how well he’s throw there’s the stigma against him succeeding in the limelight and being able to handle deeper AL lineups.
“waive his “out” clause “
Players don’t waive outclauses unless they get something in return. The Players Association won’t let something like that happen.
“Particularly if Toronto would pick up some salary.”
Toronto isn’t looking to take on payroll, they’re happy with where there at but they might be willing to lighten the load by moving Burnett (glaus is rumored on the table too but that doesn’t make sense for the Cardinals). At most the Blue Jays may pick up 1-2M if we sent Reyes and Perez over. At most.
I’m sorry, I don’t make this deal. This current trip to the DL is the 10th of his career. You really got to wonder if there’s a serious shoulder problem underlying this. I don’t think the Cardinals should be paying any other pitchers not to pitch.
Since when do the Cards take on salary? (even though I think Burnett is somewhat of a bargain)
I would personally love to have Burnentt and would glady trade Reyes and Dove for him in no time. I also like Burnett more than Buehrle by a decent amount, but Buehrle doesn’t have the injury concerns. OT but my dream scenerio is to get the Orioles to trade us Erik Bedard whose peripherals suggest he’s been the best pitcher in the game by far this year and you would think he would absolutely dominant in the NL. Or get the Mariners to stupidly trade King Felix for Colby+Jaime.
Azruavatar
Easy point - Dove is at best a C level prospect. I just include Looper as a #5 starter for the Jays - you could easily dump his salary for nothing imho.
In terms of waiving out clauses - players do - a no trade clause is waived fairly frequently if they are going to a team they prefer to be with. An out clause is really no different - I’m not saying he would, but a change of scenery and the fact that $12M per year is about what he’d get on the open market at this point anyway may be enough to do it. Don’t forget that other than Baltimore STL would probably be his first choice of places to go.
I guess I just don’t agree with your points.
“Easy point - Dove is at best a C level prospect. I just include Looper as a #5 starter for the Jays - you could easily dump his salary for nothing imho.”
The Blue Jays aren’t going to want Looper as a back of the rotation starter. Despite his recent success I think there’s a lot of reasons to remain skeptical. Dove would be under their control for 6 years and has a plus-fastball velocity-wise. Hard throwing relievers don’t grow on trees at league minimum.
a no trade clause is waived fairly frequently
He may. I’d be awfully surprised if that was the case. It’s heavily frowned upon for players to waive trade clauses if they aren’t getting extensions or more money. I’m just telling you how the player’s union reacts to those deals. Buerhle is about to buck the union with a HUGE hometown discount so these things happen occasionally.
You really got to wonder if there’s a serious shoulder problem underlying this.
I’ll readily admit that Burnett probably will make a trip to the DL every year. I’d still trade for him. This trip to the DL seems to be a direct cause of him throwing on 5 days with absolutely no breaks during the season and then having a 130 pitch outing. That’ll injure the best pitcher. Obviously you do a medical check but baring season ending surgery, I’d still go after Burnett.