Since I set up a category for these posts you can access the old Memphis graph via that method. I came into work this morning and my boss basically said to do whatever I needed to do for school today and not worry about work. Pretty sweet — so I thought I’d whip something up for today. If you remember our hitters graph features isolated power on the Y-axis and OBP on the X-axis. The goal is to see how our minor leagues are functioning in two main areas: 1) are they hitting for power and 2) are they getting on base (be it by walks or a high AVG).
I’ve been pretty explicit in the past about how much I prefer a good walk rate but there are limitations to the 2D format. There are things these graphs do well and things that they don’t — such is life. I’ve again labeled those players that excel in contact (striking out in <10% of their PAs) and those that fail (striking out in >25% of their plate appearances). Strikeout rate for me matters when found in it’s extremes. I tend not to get worked up about the rates in the middle. Green = good; Red = bad.
(Random note: Matt Pagnozzi was moved down to AA between this posting and the Memphis posting looking at the SPR roster.)
You know the drill, let’s get to it.
Notes:
- Rasmus was putting up a .182 ISO at age 19. On top of that the strikeouts were within reason (16%) and he wasn’t totally reliant on his AVG.
- Bryan Anderson may not have the power of Rasmus but he’s better at hitting for average. If he can just work out his defensive issues, he’s a fantastic prospect at a premium defensive position.
- Juan Richardson is a worthwhile organizational player but he’s nothing more than a AAA type of player.
- Jon Jay was fantastic last year with the only .400+ OBP in the group. Hitting .342 will help but he drew walks in more than 10% of his PAs — that’ll do. It’s too bad he’s lost so much of his season this year to the shoulder injury. He should be a premium defender in RF as well. If you asked me to pick 3 OFs from our system that I think have the best shot of playing regularly in 2010 it would be Rasmus and Jay joining Chris Duncan. Jay has the potential to be a plus defender in RF.
- Mark Shorey’s numbers are from Johnson City for a full year so I wouldn’t put too much stock in them.
- Maybe I’m too hard on Hamilton. He wasn’t getting on base all that much last year but the ISO wasn’t bad. I’m still don’t like players confined to 1B and LF this early in the minors — you have to have quite the bat for those positions.
- Contact rates haven’t necessarily helped Martinez and Lucena to succeed. The organization has really pushed Martinez who is only 21 this year at AA.
There isn’t anything breathtaking in this chart. The ones that jump out at me are the ones I expected: Rasmus, Anderson and Jay. Shorey’s numbers look nice but there against inferior opponents so it’s hard to know how representative they are. (Shorey is doing well in Springfield but if you look he’s hitting 44% of his balls as FB and 28% as LDs. That’s an exceptionally low number of GBs.)
As usual, leave questions below and if you want raw data let me know.
Filed under: Visualizing Hitters
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
28% line drive rate is pretty good!
it’s quite good
i just think it’s an aberrant spike rather than a true talent level
I wonder, AZ, have you ever heard Jarrett Hoffpauir compared to Boston’s Dustin Pedroia? Same size, same position(though Pedroia has seen more time at SS), nearly the same age(two months. Hoff is just a bit behind on the ladder but he’s had some injuries attribute to that. I think mostly we look at him as a utility player but is .300/.400/.450 at the major league level out of reason?
Jay doesn’t have a lot of pop–can he get in done RF? I suppose that depends on the makeup of the rest of the lineup, but usually that’s a spot producing more isolated power. That we have three of our own guys who could be a legitimate outfield is a pleasant thought.
mateodh - I can’t recall hearing that comparison floated. Hoffpauir’s made a huge leap forward this year and it continues to look like more than just a fluke as he’s hit well in his first 20 AAA at bats. That said, yes, I think .300/.400/.450 is too high for Hoffpauir. Something closer to .280/.360/.425 is probably his upper peak. Maybe in another month I’ll want to scale that upwards but I can’t ignore that he’s a 24 year old who has just made it to AAA with some less than stellar minor league numbers in previous years.
awpierce - Jay probably won’t hit for a lot of power but he’d be an excellent RF defensively. He profiles as more of an OBP player with a little speed and may top out as a fourth outfielder (although I’m not ready to label that as his ceiling yet). I think that he and Rasmus in RF and CF would be an excellent defensive arrangement. I’m trying to read more and more on modern defensive metrics because I think it may be one of the last few exploitable market flaws in the majors.