Not a lot of news to pass along, the big news happened yesterday with the Kozma signing. One of my main fears was quelled a bit after doing some digging around at BA. The thing that bothered me the most about the Kozma pick was Carlos Gomez’s assessment of his rather um, “poopy” swing based on what he saw on is draft video at MLB.com. Those videos are done early in the year or the previous. More recently however, Derrick Goold reported:
The club dispatched several officials to Owasso, Okla., for an individual hitting session with the infielder. They came away from that convinced the swing would translate eagerly from aluminum to bat and resolved that Gossett had his personality pegged.
I still absolutely value Gomez’s assessment of his swing, I have to think he’s improved drastically in order to have several Cardinal officials convinced he hit well enough to merit a # 1 draft pick. And least I would like to think they know what they are talking about. As for Gomez, I won’t tolerate people calling him some hack at a computer. Gomez has a good track record (he nailed Tim Lincecum while scouts said he’s too small and profiles as more of a reliever) and has received some national acclaim from smart guys like Rob Neyer. He’s been nothing short of great to the readers here in answering our questions. If you don’t like what he has to say, then give solid logic as to why you don’t agree with him, don’t just sit and say he’s some yahoo with a computer. Gomez is a retired professional baseball player, and a scout. We should be grateful for the work he is doing, breaking down mechanics of hitters and pitchers who most of us have no clue at what we’re looking at. Previously, this was stuff that was insiders, guys with training talking behind closed doors. I’d like to see more of the type of work that he and Jeff Albert do, you don’t get that sort of stuff at these subscription sites, etc.
I didn’t pass this scouting report along before, but here’s PG Crosschecker’s scouting report of Kozma.
Measured strictly by tools, Kozma doesn’t warrant first-round consideration, but his ability to play the game raises him to that level for many scouts. He has an athletic presence and confidence to his style of play that works at the upper levels of the game. Kozma has excellent athletic balance and a very quick first step that plays better than his average speed underway. He is ultra-smooth at shortstop, and can make all the throws from all different angles with accuracy and strength. Offensively, Kozma is a line-drive, gap-to-gap hitter with surprising strength in his wrists and hands that gives him some extra juice in his bat. He hit at a .500-plus clip the last two years for Owasso High, and homered in the first inning of the Oklahoma 6-A championship game—and it stood up in a 1-0 win. Scouts have compared him to University of Mississippi shortstop Zack Cozart, particularly for his body type and defensive ability, but Kozma has more offensive potential at the same age. There are numerous high school shortstops who are being mentioned in the top 50 picks, and Kozma is among them.
I’m not real crazy about the pick, and I know last week I said I could care less if the Cardinals take a mulligan and take another shot next year with the new CBA rules in place. But he’s a Cardinal now, and I’ll gladly root for the laundry and focus on the good. And there is a lot of good, I never denied that. Just not what I thought I would’ve liked to see in the first round. But I’m probably wrong, many smart guys said he was the best shortstop in the draft. If so, that’s great. Time will tell all.
As for tonight’s action. Colby was back in the lineup, and was productive…Ankiel goes yard…Mike Ferris made his AAA debut…Cody Haerther and Mike Sillman started their rehab assignments…and Tony “don’t call me Arnoldi” continues to make us ask..who is this guy?
[Edit] One bit of news is the Cardinals have signed Gerard Haran. Haran is a 21 year old catcher out of the College of New Jersey. In 2006 he was the NCAA Division III player of the year, where he finished with an .807 slugging %. This year he hit .327/.447/.661 with 14 homers, and played in every game of the season. I like seeing them take flyers on these indy leaguers under the radar. Haran will start with the GCL team.
- Blake Hawksworth did a decent job by allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk while striking out 3 over 6 innings.
- Unfortunately, Matt Ginter came out of the bullpen and proceeded to stink up the joint, he allowed 5 runs in the 7th.
- The good news is that Rick Ankiel broke his homer drought, smacking his 27th homer. On the negative, he did strike out twice.
- Joe Mather went 4 for 5 out of the lead off spot. After being called up to AAA, Mather has only hit .212.
- It escaped my notice that Mike Ferris was promoted AAA. Hitting DH, Ferris was 2 for 4 with an RBI.
- Mitchell Boggs was lit up for 6 runs, and he allowed 3 homers.
- The day of rest seemed to do Colby Rasmus some good, he went 2 for 4 but was caught stealing.
- Bryan Anderson and his pitchers allowed 3 steals, and went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts.
- Juan Richardson went 3 for 4 with a HR.
- Jason Motte struck out 3 in his 1 inning of relief.
- Eddie Degerman only lasted 4 innings and really struggled with his command. He surrendered 6 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits and 4 walks, while striking out 3.
- Michael Cooper was poop again, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits in 3 IP.
- Brandon Buckman and Dan Nelson both went 3 for 5 with a double each.
- Chris Grossman went 3 for 4 with a double.
- Overall, the offense had 6 doubles against the Marlin’s #1 draft pick and ex-Missouri State Bear Brett Sinkbeil.
- Just thought I’d take this opportunity to say Lansing Lugnuts is one of the coolest names in all of the minors.
- Elvis Hernandez wasn’t spectacular, but allowing a run on 2 hits and 4 walks, while striking out 3.
- Mike Schellinger struck out 6 in 4 innings and allowed just a couple of hits.
- Hector Carrasco walked a batter while striking out 3 over 2 innings, finishing out a great pitching performance for the Swing. Carrasco has sort of flown under the radar. Last year for JCY he struck out 31 in 27.1 innings and this season has struck out 29 in 25.2 IP out of the bullpen.
- Tony don’t call me Arnoldi Cruz homered.
- Nick Derba went 2 for 3 with a double and a walk. He’s hitting .435 in 23 at bats since being promoted to the Swing.
- Jared Schweitzer and Antone DeJesus both collected a couple of hits.
- Pete Parise went 5 innings and allowed just 3 hits, while getting 10 ground ball outs.
- Thomas Eager allowed 2 hits and a 2 walks while striking out 4 in 3 innings.
- Josh Dew picked up the save.
- Tommy Pham went 2 for 4.
- Paul Vasquez knocked in the game’s only run.
- Nick Additon pitched 5 innings of 2 hit ball, striking out 7
- Charles Fick is putting the kabosh on the nepotism claims of his selection this past draft. He allowed 1 hit in 2 innings while getting 5 ground outs. He has just a 1.29 ERA and a 66% ground ball rate.
- Matt don’t call me Ateo Folli went 3 for 5 with a double hitting in the lead off spot. He also swiped a bag.
- Jonathan Edwards went 2 for 3 with a walk.
- Casey Mulligan went 2 for 4.
- A couple of guys from the higher minors were putting in some rehab work. Cody Haertherwent 2 for 2 with a double.
- Mike Sillman struck out 2 in 2 innings while allowing 1 hit. Glad to see both coming back. I’d have to think with all the time he’s missed this season, both are shoe ins for the Arizona Fall League. We’ll see
- The Gonzalez piggyback continues to dominate the GCL. Reynier Gonzalez struck out 6 in 4 innings while allowing just 2 hits. Carlos Gonzalez allowed the Mets only run, while striking out 3 in 3 IP.
- Edwin Conde went 2 for 4 with a HR and 2 strikeouts.
- Edgar Lara tripled.
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports, Pete Kozma, Transactions
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
You are right about Gomez, Erik, and I agree about Kozma. At first, I really didn’t care if he signed or not, especially because of Mark Loretta/Jack Wilson type comparisons, but he is One Of Ours and I will not be cheering against him.
And what in the world do we make of Arnoldi Cruz? How much longer will he be at QC, and are there any articles or mentions of him anywhere? Guys get noticed for doing less, yet he’s played about 12 classes in 12 days and still not mention of him.
Erik, I’m the only guy I noticed disagreeing with Gomez’s overall conclusion (that Kozma was a poor pick), so I suspect that at least some of your irritation with his critics is directed at me. Let me clarify (and I do think my disagreement is based on logic and a view of the big picture).
Gomez essentially provides a techninican’s view of a specific body action - the swing. He does this very well, and is well-qualified to do so. What he has provided is a snapshot at a fixed point in time. Jeff Luhnow’s job is to determine whether that snapshot is a) accurate, and b) likely/able to change.
Now, my problem with Gomez’s analysis of Kozma was not the accurcay of his assessment of his swing, but the big-picture diagnosis that Kozma was not worth a selection there because of it. I view this as viewing Kozma’s swing in a vacuum. Is Kozma young enough to be able to alter his swing? Probably. We are not talking about a 26 year old here. Is Kozma athletic enough to be able to adapt? Probably. We are not talking about a one-dimensional athlete here. Had Gomez been talking about a guy whose bat was his ONLY tool, then we’d have a real case for concern - we’d be worried that the very tool that gained him his reputation was, in fact, defective.
This gets into other disciplines or fields besides baseball, in that a lot of times you have to make decisions based on the whole of the body of work and determine whether what appears to be the bottleneck (in this case, the swing) is likely to persist. This is why the CEO of a corporation is not neccessarily the person who is the best technician at that company’s core product - instead s/he is the best able to incorporate technician data into the Big Picture. The job of a manager or study leader is to consider the evaluations of technicians into the big equation, and I’m guessing that what Luhnow & Co have done.
Apparently, others agree that there’s a reasonable chance that Kozma’s swing, if truly defective, is worth the gamble that it can be changed given professional instruction. And Gomez provides some inadvertant evidence that this “consider the situation” perspective is shared by others when he points out that “incredibly”, Kozma’s swing was not even the worst on taken in the 1st round. Yes, there seem to be other baseball people that feel a bad swing from certain young players is not an insurmountable obstacle. And Kozma, as an athletic 18-year-old, would appear to be the exact kind of player that would fit that equation. Add in that it’s a position that the Cards are basically bereft at, and it further tilts the equation. I was not crazy about the pick, but not because of the swing.
Gomez is great at what he does, and certainly has enlightened all of us with his assessments of windups and swings. I’m glad Gomez gave us his insights on the swing. And on windups for guys like Mortensen and Todd. I also think it’s fair for readers to ask hard questions, and to come to different conclusions based on incporporation of overall information. Kozma may never get to the Show because of a lack of quite enough tools, or he doesn’t have enough power, or whatever - but I think it’s unlikely to ever simply be because he could never change his swing.
Let me end this with a question - if Kozma put up such good hitting numbers with a “poopy” swing, what can he do if it ever becomes made of silk? To me, this is analgous to knowing a guy throws 90 with “poopy” mechanics, and hoping you can add 3 mph by straightening them out (ala Oliver Perez).
I’d say Primey for #2, but that doesn’t make much sense here.
No, my irritation is not directed at you Sidd. You asked good questions and reasoned the whole thing out, exactly the type of arguments that are encouraged. I won’t get into it all again, but there were some who just acted like if Gomez wasn’t working for BA or a major league team, then he was a nobody. That’s what irritated me.
Nah, the irration was likely directed at me. I think breaking down swing mechanics is one of the most overplayed and overrated thing in scouting. I understand breaking down pitching mechanics, b/c of just the pure physics of it. But hitting is an art and some of the best hitters of all time were wrecks in the batter’s box.
I have read scouting reports and stories from every reputable scouting website and not one, not one time has it even been hinted at, that Kozma’s swing was too handsy, too much extension or too front footed.
Now, sorry if I dont take the word of a guy at a website over professionally paid scouts, whose websites have become the bible for scouting and development. To me its just an opinion, just like I dont like/believe everything Luhnow says and does. It doesnt mean he isnt qualified for the job, but not every decision or evaluation has to be liked…ie (mortensen and descalso)
As I have stated before, basing an opinion on someone’s swing from a video is fine, but its obviously one factor in a group of factors. But how can you say a pick is warranted by that one factor?
I would love to see a side by side Kozma and Jeter swing comparisons….both are inside out, wrist hitters who finish high…..Power is not everything, making consistent hard contact to all fields to me is as important as power, especially when we are talking about a projectable #2 hitter.
If beauty of swing mechanics was all that matters, Russell Brayan would be a star and Ichiro and his mess of a swing would be wash out.
To each their own…I just think some are so upset that Cards passed on Porcello that they latched onto the first negative report about Kozma and are running with it.
Dont worry, the same people will start a Kozma bandwagon the first time he hits .300 in a month.
Just so you all know, it’s not a huge deal, and i don’t want to stir the pot again. you’re alright pickefork. i think swing mechanics are absolutely fixable, it just depends on the hitter. i also would like to see him compared with another hitter, like the aforementioned inside-out swinging jeter. if the cardinals sent several scouts down there and felt he would easily transfer to wood bats, that’s good enough for me.
No problem Erik, You guys do a great job here, I enjoy the site and agree with about 99% of the things that are said and talked about on this site.
I just didnt agree in this instance…now if you ever started a thread about how bad the Mortensen and Descalso picks where…I will lead the charge:)
Kozma wasnt my #1 choice at #18…I would have rather had Withrow, Smoker or Main and then taken Justin Jackson at #36…but cant change the past, so might as well put our eggs in the Kozma basket.
Hitting mech’s are important…but how a person applies them to at bats and different situations are things that cant be broken down by film.
yeesh…descalso. now that’s been a pretty grizzly pick. what does he have, like a sub .600 OPS for batavia. not sure what was up with that pick there…i actually am coming around on mortensen. i hated the pick at the time, but he’s pitched well and the scouts like him. just think they could’ve got him in the 2nd or even 3rd round.
My only argument against Mortensen is his age. Being 22 already and 23 before he even takes the mound next season, you really gotta rush him a bit to warrant picking him at #36.
And was he really someone that you HAD to get, you do have to take into account value when picking someone.
I also think if your going to take Morty, then why take nearly the identical player next with Kopp?
In a draft loaded with 3B and LHP….to come away with none of those on the 1st day was troubling for me.
sidd and pickle, it was me that all of that was directed at and if you want to see why go check out the comments from a the last kozma post.
while i appreciate what gomez does, i agree with pickle in that swing mechanics aren’t that important to me. at the plate its about the results. gomez obviously believes the exact opposite. in his report on nick noonan (who’s swing i also love btw) he made a comment like “i showed a swing and miss to explain why it is about the process and not the results.” i could care less what it looks like as long as the guy gets it done. what do you think people would say about stan the man’s swing in a pure analysis like this?
the point i was trying to make last time is that gomez is just one tool to use to evaluate the player. obviously some people put more weight in some tools than in others. personally i like to find as many scouting reports as possible instead of relying on a 1 minute video clip that may not even be an accurate portrail of the player at this time. every scouting report i have read (no matter how positive or negative) says he can flat out play shortstop and that is extremely valuable. every scouting report has also said he will hit, but won’t have a whole lot of power. this is the part that i think gomez didn’t like. he feels that if a player is going to be selected where kozma was picked that he should have power. i remember him saying in his report that kozma would hit line drives and put the ball in the gaps, so i took that as him saying he would hit for average which is fine by me. another thing we need to remember is that his analysis was exclusively about the swing. he didn’t take into consideration the defense and baserunning which along with the bat is what makes kozma a first round pick.
anyway, like i said last time i look at what he says about pitchers a lot more b/c i personally believe that mechanics are a lot more important to pitching than hitting. you need to be able to repeat your mechanics to have command of your pitches and that is the key to being a successful pitcher.
well now that he is signed i guess we will start seeing who is right in a few days.
i guess we’ll see. i’m not upset or anything. i just think the work albert and gomez do is pretty interesting stuff, they are smart guys who may be considered small time, but who knows with the work they are doing if they won’t be discovered. gomez broke down mulder’s broken down mechanics while the cardinals were still trotting him out there. you can say you disagree with him, i just don’t want to see anybody being disrespected, that’s all. no biggie, i’m cool.
like i said i love the stuff he does with pitchers and i think that is what he is best at. i also find his swing analysis interesting, but i think it is a lot harder to develop perfect swing mechanics and b/c of that it is even harder to break down swing mechanics. a pitcher can do the same thing every time, but a hitter has to adapt to different pitches and speeds and therefore can’t do the same thing. the perfect swing, which is what you are looking for in this type of analysis, happens so few times throughout a season, but a pitcher’s perfect mechanics can be produced on almost every pitch. that is why i believe analysis like gomez does is much better at finding the good pitchers.
and gomez was a pitcher so maybe that makes some sense. jeff albert was a college hitter and seems to have a pretty good understanding of hitting mechanics. he did a swing analysis of jon jay that i posted on one of my VEB posts, and overall liked what he saw, despite some of other scouts critisms.