This is hands down the best article I’ve read about the draft. Kevin Goldstein has truly outdone himself this time laying out the problems with the draft and exactly what goes on with it. We’ve had numerous discussions about the slot issue here and how frustrated I personally get that the Cardinals are basically folding under the pressure.
It’s at Baseball Prospectus and it’s free nonetheless. Here’s my favorite part:
“You call MLB and say you want to go over slot, and they tell you not to, and that they’ve worked so hard to put this system in place and that you are blowing everything up.” From there, things get uglier. “Now, the process can’t continue until MLB talks not to your GM, but to your ownership, where they will once again yell about your team messing everything up, but also often telling them that their own scouting director is doing the wrong thing here,” he added. “Unfortunately, there are owners who listen.”
The key to getting an over-slot deal done seems to then rely on having a supportive internal management structure. “In the end, you have to have a strong enough ownership where you can tell him that signing this player for big money is in the best interest of the organization,” he continued. “When that happens, the owner has to call MLB back and let them know that their message has been heard and considered, but we’re doing it anyway. Then after MLB yells at you one more time, you sign the guy. It’s a bad process.”
Not only does this entire process seem broken and unprofessional to me but it seems to be a place where teams can exploit an inefficiency in the system. Some do and others don’t. I think the dividends pay pretty well for those that do.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
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Damn you’re good, AZ. I just read the article and was going to post a link to it for you guys to comment on. It is a great read. The best, and most appropriate, part of it to me was the section on who’s paying over slot. The answers — the Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees.
All of those teams have added some really good prospects by going over slot. They select somebody who teams have passed on due to salary demands and pay them the salary they would’ve gotten. Then there are the lines from a scout and an agent — ““It should be pretty clear that a bigger draft budget saves more money in the long run,” he said. One agent agreed completely: “Any team that passes on some guy over 200 grand is killing themselves,” he observed.”
From that, it’s clear to me that the Cards ought to pay Kyle Russell and get him in — he’ll cost the team less than Mike Maroth will this year. Additionally, the Cards will likely be selecting in the top 10 picks of next year’s draft. This means that the Cards will get a good player, of course. But it also means that they may be in line to select someone who has fallen from one of the top 3 picks due to salary demands. If this is so, they can’t let that player get past them!
The article is sort of unsettling based on the current situation in the Cards front office with the possible rift between Lunhow and Walt. If Lunhow says “hey we need to sign this guy for over slot,” does Walt have his back when they have to get ownership to call MLB and tell them they are going to do it? I dunno. I really wish the Cards would jump on the Tigers bandwagon and over pay for talent in the draft so they could have stud prospects and not overpay for mediocre FAs.
call me crazy, but i still think the best way to handle the draft is to go to a straight slot system like the NFL does where the top pick gets the most and each guy after that has to sign for less. it would ensure that the worst teams get the best players (which is what i thought the point of the draft was anyway), and we wouldn’t have to worry about all of this boras crap and signability. now if they really wanted to get strict, mlb could set the amount for each pick (i don’t think the players union would care what amateurs get paid), but i don’t think that is necessary. this type of system would give the teams all the power, but you would also see the end of below slot deals which might make some of the cheaper teams upset.
I don’t understand why baseball doesn’t treat their draft more like the hockey draft. I don’t understand all the nuances with that draft, but from what I understand a team selects a player out of high school and they retain their rights for a period of time regardless of whether that player signs a contract right away, goes to play college hockey, plays in Europe in as pro league over there or plays junior hockey in North America.
Irrespective of that, the Cardinals really need to pony up and sign their draft picks (Russell, Stutes, Zawacki, etc.). They cost less than the re-retreaded pitchers they are trying to make due with and won’t cost a player in return. Please sign them now!
On deconstructing the trading deadline deals, one of the BP writers made a comment that by selecting Texeria, the Rangers got five years of Tex, five of Salty, plus the bonus of whatever the other players produce. In other words, a great draft pick can pay dividends long after that player is gone.
All the more reason to go over slot.
MLB’s focus on the whole slotting system thing is one of the most senseless and bizarre things in sports today. They have no problem wiht any of the obscene contracts signed by Free Agents, yet they’re desperately trying to get a handle on the signing bonuses of drafted players. I can’t think of a single logical explanation for being worried about draft salaries.
Even more senseless than the system itself, however, is the fact that some of the teams, such as our very own Cardinals, who have the resources, aren’t taking advantage of the system. MLB isn’t going to actually do anything to you, and the cost of drafting a kid is literally a fraction of signing a free agent of even just comparable skill. Detroit’s figured out the paradigm, so why haven’t we?
Re: the Rangers using one draft pick for 5 years of Tex and 5 more of Salty, the Cards did kind of the same thing with J.D. Drew — we flipped him for Wainwright.
OTOH, I can appreciate the Cards’ reluctance to go over slot. They wrote a lot of big checks from ‘97 through ‘00, and ended up with a lot of guys who got hurt or otherwise flamed out.
Conversely, Minnesota refused to pay Prior the big bucks, and took Mauer instead with the first pick of that draft. Same with the Braves, going way back, who took Chipper Jones when the concensus top talent was a pitcher who eventually fell to Oakland. (This was so long ago that Oakland was the team throwing around the big bonuses.)
Baseball goes through these cycles where the team spending the most money looks brilliant for a while, but it never seems to last. Even so, we always remember the one big-bonus guy who worked out for his team, and forget all the others who didn’t.
I believe the risk/reward ratio argues for giving Russell first round money, but it should be noted that he continues to struggle with the wood bat. His numbers this year for the California Collegiate League’s Santa Barbara Foresters are .231/.404/.385. 36% of his official at bats (27% of plate appearances) have resulted in strikeouts. (Stats through Sunday’s NABC Tournament game.)
His strikeouts are actually down from last year when he set a Cape Cod League record for whiffs. I believe it could be taking him longer to adjust to the wood bat because he lets the ball get so deep into the strike zone before swinging (a good thing for a power hitter). But these numbers can’t be helping his bargaining postition.
Nice game for Russell Monday evening–3 for 5 with a double, 1 RBI, and a stolen base as Santa Barbara beat the Salina, KS Blue Jays in the losers bracket of the NBC Tournament.