Comments on: Daily Prospect Report 8/15/07

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 14:23:24 +0000

am i the only one that is concerned about all the homeruns he is giving up?

By: New Pagodi

New Pagodi — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 02:07:53 +0000

That does seem to be right. Here’s the data (I really hope this formats right.) GO/AO GO/9 K/9 06 April 0.50 3.00 11.25 12 April 1.29 6.00 9.00 17 April 1.64 7.2 7.80 23 April 1.77 7.02 9.15 28 April 1.73 6.5 10.50 03 May 2.33 7.24 10.55 08 May 1.46 6.39 10.09 14 May 1.36 6.16 10.22 19 May 1.25 5.71 10.93 24 May 1.26 5.78 10.88 30 May 1.26 6.00 10.29 05 June 1.20 5.89 10.33 10 June 1.11 5.9 9.74 20 June 1.17 6.09 9.67 25 June 1.20 6.24 9.48 30 June 1.26 6.44 9.33 06 July 1.23 6.48 9.10 12 July 1.11 6.30 8.78 17 July 1.14 6.41 8.69 23 July 1.18 6.44 8.80 28 July 1.21 6.59 8.64 03 August 1.25 6.74 8.40 08 August 1.25 6.74 8.34 15 August 1.26 6.84 8.09

I’ve put this in chart format here.

By: cardsfan1

cardsfan1 — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 01:36:47 +0000

There are many factors as to why the cards haven’t promoted ottavino, and his stats aren’t one of them. I was also at the game last night. He had control issues, but like someone else mentioned as of late his walks have been very low. His velocity was also up to 98.

His strikeout rate has been declining towards the end of the season and I would venture to say it has something to do with him throwing the 2-seam more often. The 2-seam is a ground ball pitch and if hes throwing it more often then he used to, then thats probably the reason for the decline in K’s. I don’t know the statistics and someone could probably look it up but I would guess that as his K/9 decrease his GO/9 has increased.

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 21:07:12 +0000

bob, thanks for the first hand report. the only problem i have with what you said is i don’t see how he is going to improve his command at palm beach when he can get by with bad command. i think the only way he is going to improve his command is if he goes up to springfield and sees that he has to improve it to pitch well.

By: Phil

Phil — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 20:50:45 +0000

Even with his 6 Walks yesterday he has only waled 17 in his last 61 innings.

Sorry i ment to put this with my last post

By: Phil

Phil — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 20:45:43 +0000

The thing i love about Ott so far that in his worse month, which is this one, his Era is still a very nice 3.86

By: New Pagodi

New Pagodi — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 20:38:03 +0000

Looking at the stats for Adam Ottavino, Tyler Norrick, and Brad Furnish (K/9, BB/9, WHIP, ERA, HR/9, etc), it looks like most of them have been well above league average for most of the year, but have been collapsing towards average as the season goes on. Might we just be seeing fatigue setting in? This is the first full year for all three of them.

By: erik

erik — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 19:42:01 +0000

ott is entitled to a bad game or two. just saying

By: Bob

Bob — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 18:45:55 +0000

I was at the PB game last night. Ottavino has a long way to go. I would venture to say that AA is going to be rough going. His command just is’t there, against selective hitters which he will see at the next level I believe he will struggle. His velocity is impressive, but I don’t see the movement. 95 is 95 but it still has to be in the strike zone. I think it would be a good move for him to repeat PB until he gets his command issues under control.

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 16:54:39 +0000

i too think he is ready to move up, i just questioned how well he would do. i didn’t only compare him to miller, chamberlain, and kennedy (one guy they had a chance to draft and one guy they did draft btw), i also compared him to 2 cardinal prospects in lambert and garcia. sure he can still be successful, but i don’t see how you can deny that homerun rates don’t go up in the texas league. he has a lot of work to do in the area of fastball command and gaining more consistency with his off speed pitches. hopefully he finds that next year and dominates at springfield, i just don’t think it is likely.

i also don’t see why we can’t compare him to the top 3 pitching prospects in the league. i know comparing him to miller isn’t very fair, but kennedy was drafted pretty close to ottavino and chamberlain was drafted after him. i think chamberlain is a very fair comparison as you would expect ottavino to be better based on draft position, but as we have seen he is not even close.