Future Redbirds

Some of you may remember that Jack Wilson was once in the Cardinal system. Drafted ‘99 in the 9th round, Wilson put up some pretty impressive numbers in his professional debut for Johnson City, hitting .373/424/.531 in 241 at bats as a 20 years old. If I was evaluating him now I’d be liking those numbers, but also cautious about getting too excited given his low walk rate. I’d also be leery regarding the scouting reports about his lack of having a standout tool, which is supposed to made up for by being smart, “hard nosed” and “gritty”.

In his age 21 season, Wilson had good numbers playing in his first full season of pro ball. Wilson hit .343/.384/.498 in 251 at bats with a nifty 34% XBH rate. He still was only walking in 5.6% of his PAs, a red flag for sure. For his efforts he was promoted midseason to A+ Potomac of the Carolina League. There he hit .296/.345/.366. The considerable drop off in power was alarming. After the season, Baseball America ranked him the #6 Cardinal prospect behind Rick Ankiel, Chad Hutchinson (yes, that Chad Hutchinson), Adam Kennedy, Ben Johnson, and Nick Stocks. If I were evaluating Wilson at this point, I’d be impressed with what he did in the MWL, but would be a little reticent about getting on his bandwagon due to his low walk rate and the disappearing act his power did upon getting called up to AA.

At age 22, Wilson started the season with the same team he left off with for just 13 games before being promoted to AA. In 343 at bats, Wilson fared very well, putting up a peachy .294/.368/.452 line. His pop resurrected demonstrated by a 34% xBH ratio. Most importantly, his walk rate jumped up to a passable rate of 9.5%. On July 30th, he was traded rather inexplicably for 30 year old LOOGy Jason Christiansen. Christiansen appeared in 21 games for the Cardinals and was traded to the Giants for Kevin Joseph and Jason Farmer. (Yeah, I never heard of those guys either.) That will not go down as one of Jocketty’s best moves, but I can see the bright side. Today Wilson is a typical TLR middling middle infielder, someone who can bunt and execute the hit and run, as well as play solid defense. But he also has a career .236 EqA, making him Aaron Miles with a better glove. Coming up through the minors he looked like he would blossom into a solid regular, but now he probably belongs on the bench. It appeared that he may have begun to fulfill on his promise in 2004 when he was an All Star and finished the year a 43.0 VORP, but that hasn’t been the case. Pittsburgh acquired Cesar Izturis to push him into finding his way, and while he responded by hitting .362 for the month of August. Pirate fans can only hope he has figured somethings out, but judging by his .386 BABIP it looks rather suspicious The ballplayer he was in the minors and in 2004 and the ballplayer he has been the past three seasons don’t jive, so there could be some hope for him yet.

What freaks me out is the comparisons made with Wilson and Pete Kozma (and that comparison was not made by Keith Law or some other internet draft-nik, but by Steve Gossett, the scout who recommended Kozma). Check this scouting report out:

______ doesn’t have eye-popping tools, but his total package makes him an above-average shortstop. He has solid range, a good arm and soft hands. What makes _____ stand out are his great instincts and knowledge of the game. He also will take a walk while being a good bat handler and bunter. ____ has no glaring weaknesses. He has only moderate pop in his bat and doesn’t look like he’ll hit for much power in the major leagues.

Now read this one:

_____ has no true standout tool, but he also has no glaring weakness. He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop. His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field. He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup.

Guess which scouting report is Wilson’s, and which one is Kozma’s? (No one misunderstand me, I think Kozma could have a better career then Wilson. Just thought it beared noting.)