Assuming Jaime Garcia is healthy, I think most would peg him as the #1 pitching prospect in the system. But who would you say is #2?
On one hand, you have Adam Ottavino, who completed his first full pro season in A+.
BB/PA-10.2–K/PA 20.6%–BABIP .296–GB%–50%–HR/Air 5%–FIP 3.93
That’s decent but not great, in my opinion. I hate bringing this up, but Chris Lambert had -.10 difference at the same level with his FIP, albeit over a shorter span. The walks are a bit alarming, and look at what happened to his K/PA ratios as the season wore on–
Ick. I’m fearful of what could become of him in AA.
Herron on the other hand put up more impressive numbers in an easier league–
BB/PA-4.7%–K/PA-23.4%–BABIP-.309–GB%-52%–HR/Air-4%–FIP-2.91.
Herron has demonstrated much better control and his K rate stayed pretty steady throughout the year. I think there’s a good chance we could see both together in Springfield next year, I’d have to say I’m more excited about Herron’s future then Ottavino’s. For a wild card, how about Clayton Mortensen?
BB/PA-4.7%–K/PA-26.2%–BABIP-.372–GB%-63%–HR/Air-5%–FIP-2.64. (40 innings for QC.)
Mortensen is a year older and hasn’t played a full season, but those are some groovy, dare I say Brandon Webb like GB+K rates. Carlos Gomez seemed to prefer Mortensen’s mechanics to those of Ottavino, and you can’t argue with the early returns. I’d like to see what he does in a full season of pro ball, but I really have gone from comletely not understanding him being picked so early to being pretty psyched about Mort.
What do you think?
Filed under: Adam Ottavino, Clayton Mortensen, Tyler Herron
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I think it is too quick to label Mort as a top prospect but he is an interesting guy right now and I could see him moving up quickly next season (isn’t he at QC right now?) I think he could possibly make AA out of spring training and then depending on how he fairs move up to AAA mid season and at that point we could call him a top prospect. I think right now Ottavino rates about Herron but only slightly. Can’t wait till next year and for the AFL.
i have ottavino at #2. his stuff is better across the board with the possible exception of the change which is the 3rd pitch for both. while i love herron’s low walk rate and his strong strikeout rate and i think ottavino has some serious control problems and needs to strike out more than he does given his stuff, i still have to give the edge to ottavino based on potential. also their age is not that much different as they are both currently 21 years old and ottavino has a full season at a higher level.
another thing that worries me about herron is his problems the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. i don’t know how many times he would dominate a game for 3 or 4 innings and then just fall apart. a guy with his control and 3 solid pitches shouldn’t be having as much trouble as he did unless his stuff is a little short.
Herron is more valuable to the system because of his style. I put him a notch above. What about Walters? He has a lower ceiling, but his production makes him #1
Just a note on pitching prospects — the standard of “age” that we apply to position prospects doesn’t really apply when you are evaluating pitchers. Position players follow a much more linear progression that coincides with age. Pitchers can make great leaps and bounds both positive and negative but the connection with age doesn’t exist in the same way it does with position players.
In short, don’t penalize a 22-year-old pitcher in low-A as much as you would a 22-year-old position player in low-A. Age can/will play a factor in maturity and the cerebral aspect of pitching but not as much in the physical tools way.
Heres my opinion: Herron is a 6′3 Right Handed Pitcher, 21 years old who just finished full season at low A. He throws 88-92 touching 93 with excellent control. He has a curve and solid changeup. This is his first season at an elite level of competition, in which he has dominated. His k/bb rate is very impressive. Look for a big breakout next year certainly.
Ottavino is a 6′5 Right Handed Pitcher, 21 years old who has just finished a full season at high A. He throws 92-96 touching 98. He has an inconsistent array of secondary pitches..the best being a slider which at times is plus plus. He also has always suceeded, regardless of the level of competition. It is important to point out that Ottavino does go through streches of extreme wildness, but it also should be noted that he has streches of excellent control. For example in June. Also in the Cape Cod League he walked 10 in 52 innnings of work. His problem is consistency.
Overall I would say this is close but the edge has to go to Ottavino. He has pitched at a higher level so far and seems to have better stuff. I have faith he will be able to get his control problems figured out once he learns to harness his stuff, which seems to get better every year. Herron could definately pass everyone up with a solid next year in which he sees some time at AA. Also if Herrons velocity spikes he could become a fast mover.
Ottavino might be ahead of Garcia on my list.
paul, i’m sorry i just don’t see walters as anywhere close to these guys. yes he has put up some very impressive stats, but a righthander with a fastball that sits in the mid 80’s is going to have a tough time making it in the big leagues no matter how good his command and secondary pitches are.
here is my list of top pitching prospects in the system
1. Jaime Garcia-lefty with 2 plus pitches and a solid 3rd. just turned 21 and has already held his own at the AA level.
2. Adam Ottavino-potentially dominating 1-2 combo and workhorse frame. control needs some work, but he may have the best pure stuff in the system.
3. Chris Perez-deadly fastball/slider combo. walk rate is high, but strikeout rate is very impressive and he is nearly impossible to hit with a .130 BAA. he is also clutch in pressure situations evidenced by his 35 saves in 37 chances.
4. Tyler Herron-great control of 3 solid pitches. excellent K/BB numbers and a fairly low BAA. nees to show it at higher levels, but he seems to have all the components of a solid innings eater.
5. Clay Mortensen-i’m not a big fan of mortensen as i think he was too hittable for a guy with his stuff in low-A. however, his stuff is clearly better than walters and his control appears to be just as good. he is pretty similar to herron in that he has 3 solid pitches, but none really stand out. AA should tell us a little more about what he is made of.
6. PJ Walters-at some point you can’t deny the numbers. the stuff is below average, but the control is elite. he will have to prove the doubters wrong at every level, but he is one of the most durable pitchers around piling up insane innings totals in college and not missing a start in his first full season. the track record is not good on these type of pitchers, but there are exceptions to every rule.
7. Mitch Boggs-by stuff alone he is probably #5 on this list, but he gives up way too many hits and doesn’t strike out as many as a guy with his type of stuff should. however, he made perhaps the toughest leap in the minors and put up nearly identical numbers from the season before. has a workhorse frame and a bulldog mentality that could make him a good #4 starter someday.
I had been pondering this and without looking at the numbers, I had Herron above Ottavino. Now, going back and reviewing their numbers, I am not so sure. They are awfully close. I guess you rate Ottavino higher now because he was in the higher league. It is going to be interesting to see what happens next year.
http://www.whiteyball.com
Hopefully, they both put together dominant seasons and we can have this argument again. Maybe we will be able to add McKormick to the list
Garcia is the most likely to help the Cardinals club in some way or another anytime soon - he’s definitely numero uno.
Ottavino is my number two because of the track record, but Herron is getting there.
P.J. Walters has got to get some consideration as well…
How ’bout the freakin sweet names of our potential staff? Ottavino, Herron, and P.J. definitely beat Looper and Wellemeyer.
Hey, how dare you mention young player while LaRussa is at the helm. He better not see them smile!
http://www.whiteyball.com
I agree that Garcia is #1 on the list but I wouldn’t be even remotely surprised if he’s gone for surgery by June 2008.
I have never heard that Ottavino can throw 98 on his best day. If that’s the case, I am more excited about him than I have ever been. Is this the case? A buddy of mine saw him play - and reported him at about 92-93. Was he wrong? Slow gun? Or is this 98 figure mistaken?
thnx everyone for your input. i think i have to give it to herron. ottavino’s #’s just don’t really impress me, you could argue boggs posted better at PB last year, and norrick also had similar results, and no one would say they would be close that close to herron. that sharp declining k rate is a real red flag to me. i’m afraid ott’s overhyped because of he was a #1 pick.
todd, i have read several eye witness reports of ottavino touching 98. now its not like he sits there, but he has dialed it up there a few times. from those same reports i have read that he sits more in the 92-95 range, so your buddy could have been correct. btw, the reports i read said that the stadium gun at roger dean is a couple mph slow and the 98 reading came on the team’s gun that one of the other starters was using to chart pitches.
erik, i agree that ottavino’s numbers aren’t that impressive and i have posted several times that his declining strikeout rate, his walk rate, and his homer rate are major red flags to me, but i still don’t think herron can top him in terms of pure prospect status. he is the more polished pitcher, but his upside doesn’t come close to ottavino’s b/c the gap in the pure stuff is fairly significant.
few–i hear you, but i’ve heard from several fans who’ve seen ottavino, and nearly all said they were left wanting. i’ve read the scouting reports at ba, but i’ve heard from law and gomez less then stellar reviews, like he’s more of a 5th starter type. i’ve seen herron, and i really liked what i saw. he commanded his sinker and change well, and had a decent curve. i can’t say i was floored. i really have a hunch that mortensen will be really up there by 2008 season’s end, i just can’t shake that feeling. we’ll see.
So who is going to be in Springfield’s rotation next year? Could Herron make that jump?
Ottavino, Herron, Walters are all probables with Garcia and Boggs moving up to AAA most likely. The future of Hawksworth and Narveson are very interesting at this point as well. Do you guys plan on doing a list of minor league free agents we have coming up?
AAA Rotation:
Hawksworth
Boggs
Narveson
Daniels (I see him getting pushed up ahead of Garcia/Walters)
Haberer/Rauschenberger
AA:
Ottavino
Garcia
Walters
Norrick
Haberer/Rauschenberger
High A:
Herron (Hope he gets pushed aggressively next year)
Daley
McKormick
Mortensen
Garceau/Dickson/Hernandez
While all of the talent is at AA, the ML ready types are in Memphis for call ups. I would think that spots might be cleared through trades (Boggs would seem a likely candidate).
Why in the world would Garcia spend another season in AA? No Degerman? And it’s McCormick with a “C”, and hopefully he can get to AA with ease next year.
garcia might be able to stand another season in aa, in my book. pretty yeasty walk rates and hr rates, he needs to learn a thing or two. he’s only 21, no need to promote him too aggresively. i’d like to see him be piggybacked with someone perhaps for a while given his elbow issues. i fear he may need TJ.
and as for degerman, i think he will eventually be bullpen bound. i think he repeats a ball.
I just don’t think Garcia needs to be AA for another season, AAA isn’t much harder anyways. He was better than Franklin Morales who has since got the call up to the MLB, granted he doesn’t have the pure stuff that Morales does. But I would just as well put Garcia is AAA for a few months then call him up mid to late season. Of course this is all hoping for the best since no one really knows whats going on with his health situation. Also, Garcia’s numbers were a little inflated I think in AA by his high HR/Air ratio, hopefully that comes back down to earth next year.
And Erik you really think he’ll repeat in Hi A ball? Granted his ERA wasn’t great in Hi A, but he’s just too old to keep holding back I think. And his ERA was a lot worse than what he really was.
i think mortensen is going to get every opportunity to make the springfield team in spring training. everyone knows luhnow likes to have his advanced college guys make that jump and he said on draft day that he thought morty could compete in high-A right then, so i don’t think he believes mortensen needs to spend time there.
my rotations
AAA
garcia
boggs
hawksworth
FA
FA
AA
ottavino
walters
mortensen
norrick
pomeranz/daniels/rauschenberger
high-A
herron
mccormick
todd
degerman
furnish
i think bouts of wildness keep degerman back, but if he can harness his command for for a month’s worth of starts, i could see him getting called up to AA if there’s a spot for him.
Thank you Erik for answering all of Shh’s question for me.
McComrmick with a C….pardon me. He needs to prove himself before he goes to Springfield. I hope he dominates everyone and gets a September call-up, but I doubt that will happen.
I would love to see Degerman make it as a starter, but I doubt that will happen. Right now the middle levels are too crowded for him.
As for Garcia, why waste him in AAA? Keep him with Ott and Walters in AA. If he is really all that, he can skip AAA like many prospects do.
Mortensen is really an interesting case. He got drafted “too high”, pitched better than expected, and is now becoming a fast tracker…I would slow down if I were you Fewgood. I can’t see him pitching at a higher level than Herron to start the season. Their styles might work nicely together (In either PB or Springfield–my gut says PB, but I hope I’m wrong).
In a perfect world, we would become super aggressive and everyone would dominate, but that it is not and our organization isn’t overly aggressive with pitchers.
Oh, I know McCormick won’t start in AA, I just hope he ends there. And the only reason I corrected you is because I’ve seen you spell it like that before, not making fun of you or anything.
I have no problem with Degerman as a reliever(actually think that’d be best), but I sure as hell would like him start in AA next year.
Waste him in AAA? Thats not a waste, a lot of prospects that skip AA, end up struggling a good amount. I’d rather give the prospects a few months in AAA then put him in the bigs. Of course this is like I said nothing seriously is wrong with Garcia.
Hmmm…
I would give Herron the edge over Ottavino. Ott does have nice velocity, but his control, to me, seems tied to bad mechanics. He’s not nearly aggressive enough with his body for my tastes. This means all of his velocity is coming solely from his arm, leading him to overthrowing and losing his release. If Ottavino could speed up his delivery, I think he would benfit greatly.
I only saw Herron throw once in person, but I came away with a pretty good feeling. He’s probably more of a mid rotation guy than a no. 1/2, but he has a solid repertoire, with much better control than some of the other guys the Cards have in the minors. His fastball is probably a tick better than average, his curveball rates a plus, (could use more consistency, though) and I think his changeup could end up being above average as well. He slows his arm a little with it, so that still needs work, but it’s got very nice depth, with just a little armside fade. Sort of like a fork/splitter kind of break. Not that extreme, of course, but more vertical than lateral movement at this point.
I think Garcia, (fingers crossed for health) is a clear cut above any of the other pitchers in the system right now. His control this year was a little iffy, but there are two solid reasons for that. One was that he struggled a fair bit of the year with his delivery. He started falling off to the third base side quite a bit, something he had never done before, and cost him some consistency. I, personally, think it may have contributed to his arm issues also, but it’s tough to say for sure. The other reason his walk rate was a little elevated is just the pure movement on his fastball is absolutely freakish. The guy I think of most, in terms of comparison, is Brandon Webb, both because of the natural crazy chase on the ball and the elevated walk rates early in the career. Garcia’s ball naturally moves so much that he has a tough time starting the ball in a spot so that it ends a strike. His curveball compares pretty well to Rich Hill’s, in my opinion. Pretty solid change, although he doesn’t use it as often as I would like to see. Seriously, when Garcia puts it all together, (and I say when rather than if) he could very well end up a true ace. The quality of his stuff is absolutely outstanding.
I liked Mortenson when the Cards drafted him a little more than most, (although that’s not saying much) and I think he’s definitely going to continue moving pretty quickly. He’s not a world beater, but I definitely think he could end up being a pretty solid inning munching, mid rotation guy in the end. His ceiling isn’t enormous, but I think he’s a pretty safe bet to make it. Big, durable frame, (and still plenty of room to grow into it) solid, relatively low stress mechanics, and throws lots and lots of strikes. I’d still put him behind the other guys at this point, (small sample size and all) but I really like his chances to move quickly.
My overall rankings would probably go thusly:
Garcia
Herron
Perez (super impressive, but less valuable b/c reliever)
Ottavino
Mortenson
Walters
Maiques (should be a starter next year, I love this kid)
Norrick (not sure why I like him, but I do)
Hawksworth
McCormick (hasn’t proved a thing, but still freakishly talented)
Boggs (just not a big fan)
Furnish
Degerman (destined for the pen)
Motte
Gregerson
Everyone else who I know very little about.
Honorable mention to Adam Daniels, I just don’t know where to put the guy.
red baron–i share your love for maiques. i’ve seen him 4 times and each time it’s been a real treat. his slider is just so filthy and his fastball has some sizzle to it as well. i don’t know mechanics as well as i’d like, but he’s not smooth in the sense where he’s slow…like gomez says he throws the “ever livin’ crap out of the ball”. i hope they don’t try and slow him down if he does start.
I have heard Maiques has a Roy Oswalt frame. I hope he has that stuff
i hope maiques has cleaned up his mechanics since that draft video was shot. i remember watching that and thinking he is going to blow out his elbow and then i found out he had about 2 weeks before that. i’m not the best with mechanics, but i think anyone could tell that those were terrible and injuries are never predictable but in that case it seemed pretty obvious (one of those cases where you wish you were wrong).
i too would like to see how his stuff would hold up as a starter, but with his slight frame and i am assuming bad mechanics i just don’t know if his arm could hold up to the load.
Good stuff, everyone. Thanks.
Fewgoodcards-
You’re right, Maiques’ mechanics in his high school/juco days were pretty rough. He’s cleaned his arm action up quite a bit since he’s been in pro ball, though. One of the actual benefits of an injury rehab; players often get to learn a better way to do something than they did before.
The Oswalt comparisons, at the risk of gushing, are pretty decent, actual. He’s not big, but he’s ridiculously athletic, just absolutely jumps off the mound. Until we see it, his health as a starter has to be a concern, but I think he’s improved his delivery to the point that I’m not terrified anymore.
Ottavino is totally lacking in athletic ability. He is highly overrated as a pitcher. I would be very surprised to see him make it out of AA ball. His pitching is inconsistent and he is easily frustrated.
Jammy, that seems to be a pretty subjective opinion of him, what do you have to backup your analysis?
Jammy,
It seems like you have a pretty subjective opinion, you have anything to justify why Ottavino is “overrated” or “lacks athletic ability”?
6′5 220…not an athletic build at all (sarcasm). In college and in the minors he era has always been around a 3.5, yeah i guess thats not consistent. He is easily frustrated? You apparently have never seen him pitch because one of the things the scouts liked about him was his demeanor on the mound. I’m going to forgive your comments because you are apparently ignorant on this subject. Be prepared to be suprised.