It is about time we started getting things kicked off with the prospect profiles, and we’ll start things out with Brad Furnish. He’s been the subject of some conversation here lately, so I figure why not take a closer look at him?
Background:
Furnish was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, 54th overall from Texas Christian. He started his collegiate career at Nebraska before transferring to TCU, where he was an important part of the Horned Frog’s starting staff that also featured prospects such as Lance Broadway (1st round 2005, White Sox), Sam Demel (3rd round 2007, A’s), and Jake Arrieta (5th round 2007, Orioles). He was solid in his sophomore season, but improved as a junior by striking out 125 batters in 100 innings. His close up came when pitched a rain shortened 7 inning no-hitter against Texas Pan Am, striking out 13 batters. On the negative, he did have a bit of a problem with walks, averaging over 4 per 9 innings pitched. Baseball America ranked him the 126th best prospect going into the in 2006 draft, which begs me to ask…the Cardinals seem to take collegiate arms who the consensus generally agree are good pitchers, but they sure seem to reach a bit to get them, don’t they? I know a lot of teams are guilty, but the Cards passed on noted sinker-baller Kevin Mulvey, a pitcher who would seem to be more of the Cardinals particular cup of tea. BA ranked Mulvey # 30 on their 2006 draft board, making him a virtual steal at 54. Meanwhile, Mulvey dominated AA and made it all the way to AAA this past season. Rant time over. Back to Furnish.
Abilities:
Furnish is a lefty, stands at 6-1 and 185 pounds. Stuff wise, he has a 89-92 fastball, a nice curve and still is on his quest to find the magic change up granting fairy. I’ve seen him pitch a couple of times. His delivery is over the top and likes throwing high and away in the zone. His breaking ball is in the low 80’s and is a real 12-6 bender. One thing I really liked about him was his aggressiveness. He stayed in attack mode throughout the game and did a great job keeping hitters off balance. While he’s survived on throwing high fastballs in the lower minors, many believe he’s going to have to starting throwing towards the bottom of the zone to be successful in AA. Only 39% of his BIP this season were grounders.
Performance:
Furnish has done a nice job overall. Over 75.1 innings for State College, he struck out 22% of the batters he faced while walking just 6.2%. This year for the Swing, he held opponents to just a .190 batting average (driven by a .231 BABIP) and struck out 23.2% of the batters he faced. His ERA was just 2.42, but his FIP was 3.76 and paints a more accurate picture. For a lefty, he had a semi-noticeable platoon split versus righties/lefties. He held both to a .190 average, but had a K/9 rate of 10.5 versus southpaws, 7.8 against right handers. Being that he throws over the top, he shouldn’t have a huge platoon issue, but learning to throw that elusive change will help. He was called up to Palm Beach in July and got bombed. His command was shot to shreds, striking out 24 to 22 walks and 20 earned runs in 36.2 innings.
Conclusion:
Overall, I like Furnish, but I have my worries about him. Most glaringly, he’s a fly ball pitcher in a sinker-baller organization, and those flies could start turning into homers should he make it to AA this year. The gains he made with his command in the pros are a positive sign, but he took a hard turn south upon getting called up to A+. He has a little more wiggle room then most lefties because of his fastball comes in harder, but that seems to depend on what day it is. AZ reported seeing him at 84-86 when he saw him in person. When I saw him, he was at 89-91 and topped out at 93. I can’t say he’s in the same class Jon Lester or John Danks in terms of pure stuff, but he sure isn’t Troy Cate, either. Maybe he’s more Jarrod Washburn-ish then anything else, which isn’t a horrible thing. I’m normally not one for forcing the two-seam fastball on pitchers, but Furnish stands to benefit from learning to throw it. I think he has a fair shot to fill a spot in the back of the club’s rotation come 2009, and at worst he’d make a pretty decent lefty coming out of the pen, but without the severe platoon splits of most left handed relievers. He’s behind some others in the system, but the difference that separates him from some of the other pitching prospects in the system isn’t as huge of a gap as some would think.
Filed under: Brad Furnish, prospect profiles | Tagged: Brad Furnish, prospect profiles
erik
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I’m not sold on Furnish’s ability to maintain his hitchy delivery. Because of that, I thought the duel starter system at QC probably helped him more than most. BTW that duel starter thing may have contributed to the aggressiveness of which you spoke.
discouraging. i wish i could be in the room and know how they made their draft day decisions. there board must always look a lot different from a traditional one. kozma is an example of this, too. oh, well, hopefully it’s because they are brilliant.
The fact that Furnish is a left probably is part of the reason the Cards liked him, and according to his agent look for him to advance rapidly. Scouts are always looking for lefties and they generally have an easier time making it to the big show if nothing else as a left specialist. I am not extremely high on Furnish, but I also don’t think he was THAT bad of a pick. Next year will be a big year for him, it sounds like he could get a reasonable shot at starting at AA. If he is able to hold his on AA then all of a sudden you got a player with good value. I agree with Eric that the fact that pitches high in the zone doesn’t seem to match the Jocketty/LaRussa model so he could have trouble convincing the coaching staff that he is worthy of a spot in the rotation, ala Reyes. Anytime you got a lefty that can throw 91-92 consistently with a good curve ball you got yourself a find. I’ve never seen Furnish pitch live, but from reading about his stuff and partial control problems he kind of reminds me of Rich Hill for the Cubs. Hill is generally in the 91-93 range and has a big 12-6 curve with a mostly over the top delivery. I don’t see why Furnish wouldn’t compare to him if he can get his walks under control, which really seems to be an organizational problem.
Hey gang, Jonathan here.. Brad’s agent. First let me say, I 100% ENJOYED the comments everyone left when I posted on the “top 20″ prospect list. I am just a regular guy who started with nothing and became an agent who LOVES reading about, working hard for and supporting his clients. The most “talked about” comment I made was Brad reaching St . Louis by 2008. Please let me clarify. The “2008 call” would be September at best, and yes, 2009 IS more likely. Let me break down “Brad” from what I “hear” from the team, etc. First, Brad just had SURGERY, that was the reason for Palm Beach issues. He could not straigten his arm fully the whole time he was there. THE GOOD NEWS, he will be throwing off the mound in 5 weeks and ready for spring. The ulnar nerve was sitting on the elbow and needed to be moved. Dr. Paletta said that he found a bone spur which also had caused problems and that is now gone. Brad sits at 91, touching 94-95 on his fastball. he pitches “up” in the zone in certain counts (0-2, 1-2) a bunch. His curve ball is “over the top” (and nasty)and his change-up is improving. I and Brad both were not big fans of the “piggy back” system in QC as Brad would often be “rolling” and then out he came. Starting, the preparation, using all your pitches, etc is completely differnt then relieving. It was an experience, but we are glad it is over. My gut feeling, Brad’s chance to start in Palm Beach (60%), Springfield (40%). A healthy, starting every five days Furnish will move “quickly” in the words of many. Brad has already caught the eye of Duncan, which is saying something also. Again, thank for your many comments. Just a little info… MANY agents “blog” and “post” and don’t use their real names. I always use my “real name” b/c it gives us all a chance to “talk shop” with authenticity! My website is msmsports.net. Call or email anytime and thanks for supporting Furnish. He really is a GREAT kid who happens to also be a hard-throwing lefty!!
Thanks Jonathan, great post. It is great for us to get some of the “inside” information. The elbow problems would explain the struggles he had at Palm Beach. It is interesting to hear how a player felt about the piggyback. I can see how it would be a positive for some guys and a negative for some. I really enjoy your/Brad’s perspective and information.
Just out of curiosity who are some of your other clients?
My “biggest” client is Brandon Webb. Check out my website msmsports.net and you can see the whole list! Thanks for your support of Brad!! Jonathan
i think furnish will forever be compared to brett anderson who was taken with the next pick, but signed for quite a bit over slot. he was considered a first round talent that slid due to a perceived lack of athleticism. the cardinals decided to go with the college guy who was actually less polished than his high school counter part. to this point the edge seems to go anderson who out pitched furnish while they were both in the midwest league despite being 3 years younger.
if they wanted a college lefty that would sign for slot, i still don’t understand why they didn’t take wade leblanc. he was the more decorated college pitcher with much better command. he started this year in high-A and pitched pretty well even though he was in the pitcher’s hell known as the california league. he then moved up to the texas league and continued to have success. he too seems to be the better prospect at this point, but we won’t know who is ultimately the better pitcher for probably another 5 years. my gut says leblanc is the better bet to be a major league starting pitcher.
i agree with the poster that said he would like to be in the cardinals draft room just to see what their board looks like. it seems they continue to identify guys they like and take them a round or two before anyone else would. i like what luhnow has done, but i hate when i read quotes about him and his draft board. he really likes to talk about how their board doesn’t look like anyone elses. obviously it is nice to find some guys that other teams may have overlooked, but i sometimes think he is trying too hard to out smart everyone.