Future Redbirds

I was going to post this earlier today but there was a pretty lively discussion this morning and today was very busy for me. Regardless, I’m here to wrap up the Visualizing Hitters series with a stop in Memphis and a few Memphis graduates. For a team that is generally regarded as a stopgap of minor league veterans and Quad-A players, there were a few interesting hitters from Memphis this season.

Hopefully you still enjoy looking at these charts as next Monday I’ll start in on the pitchers.

Click on the thumbnail and then “All Sizes” for larger viewing options.

Bullets:

• Rick Ankiel was a beast. He’s probably always going to have a marginal OBP given his lack of propensity for the walk but the power he exhibits is first class. The line he posted in STL (.285/.326/.535/.861) was good for a .360 wOBA. That means as a hitter he’s above average relative to all other hitters. Beyond that Ankiel appears to play above average corner defense. This is important because a) Colby Rasmus is the future CF for the Cardinals b) being a corner outfielder comes with an offensive positional adjustment according to some — I’m not entirely decided on this subject yet — and c) defense matters. So imagine Ankiel is good for above average offense to the tune of 25 runs offensively per 600 PA (he had 10.9 VORP in 190 PA), -5 runs for positional correction and +5 runs for defense, you have a player that is worth 2.5 wins that costs you ~10-15 Million dollars over the next 3 years. That’s a steal. While I think the line that Ankiel posted in the majors is probably a little above his true talent level, it’s possible that he could make some improvements. Still, 2 wins a year @ 5M a year is a good player.
• The Memphis catchers are terrible hitters.
• Joe Mather slipped a little at Memphis but he’s still close enough to the majors that his success this season should get him a spot on the 40-man roster.
• I love Jarrett Hoffpauir’s walk rate and OBP. He consistently makes contact to boot.
• I’ve discussed this before but I’ll do it again because it’s important. The Cardinals should let David Eckstein walk. Outside of him accepting a 1 year deal for <= 7M dollars, I don’t think that Eckstein is a good bet going forward. His defense appears to have deteriorated, he seems more injury prone and he’s never been an offensive powerhouse. Brendan Ryan may not have a great OBP but let’s see what we get when we play with numbers like we did with Rick. Ryan is worth 8.2 VORP in 199 PAs this year. Let’s say he accumulates 15 runs offensively over ~600 PAs. Again, I think the .289/.342/.406/.748 line in STL may be high but not by much. So 15 runs offensively + 5 runs positional correction + 15 runs defensively (yes, he’s that good defensively) and you have a 3+ win player each year @ league minimum. Even if the Cardinals think he’s not that good, there isn’t a player on the market (outside of perhaps A-Rod) relative to cost that justifies not playing Brendan Ryan for a full year next year to disprove my rough calculations. (I’d also still recommend picking up Tampa Bay’s maligned Ben Zobrist as a fallback/replacement for Kennedy/Miles.)
• Nick Stavinoha was rather disappointing this year. I think Mather has moved past him on the depth chart.
• Tagg Bozied is a nice organizational player but nothing more than that despite his appearance on the graph.
• I’m not a Schumaker believer. If the Cardinals want him on the team he should be nothing more than a defensive replacement who gets ~200 PAs a year. He’s (most likely) peaking as a hitter right now so he’ll be useful for a few years until his marginal skillset begins to decline.
• With Lambert gone, is Ferris now the poster child for the failed 2004 draft?

Raw Data:

Memphis Roster

Averages for minor league levels

(Stats via MILB.com — except BABIP, GB & LD which were compiled from First Inning.)