Comments on: ZiP it good http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:22:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: cariocacardinal http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8273 cariocacardinal Wed, 10 Oct 2007 18:48:32 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8273 I think Barden could play a good 2b from what I hear but his power disappeared this year. How they project .430 slugging after slugging about .350 this year is beyond me. As far as I know he wasn't injured - he just lost it. I think Barden could play a good 2b from what I hear but his power disappeared this year. How they project .430 slugging after slugging about .350 this year is beyond me. As far as I know he wasn’t injured - he just lost it.

]]> By: Hugo http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8255 Hugo Wed, 10 Oct 2007 13:23:07 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8255 Oh another one: Juan Encarnacion rf 32 .264 .313 .407 106 386 48 102 18 2 11 54 24 66 3 2 Brian Barden 3b 26 .265 .310 .430 132 486 67 129 32 3 14 62 28 109 4 3 I would take Barden's stats from a second basemen if he could field that position well enough. Oh another one:

Juan Encarnacion rf 32 .264 .313 .407 106 386 48 102 18 2 11 54 24 66 3 2
Brian Barden 3b 26 .265 .310 .430 132 486 67 129 32 3 14 62 28 109 4 3

I would take Barden’s stats from a second basemen if he could field that position well enough.

]]> By: Hugo http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8254 Hugo Wed, 10 Oct 2007 13:21:18 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8254 This made me laugh: Joe Mather rf 25 .227 .289 .394 117 406 40 92 21 1 15 46 28 81 4 0 Russell Branyan* 3b 32 .220 .335 .424 77 191 26 42 9 0 10 26 32 67 1 0 So Mather is a cheaper version of Branyan who is projected to get more then twice as many ABs. I think Mather will be better then this eventually but it still struck me as kinda funny. This made me laugh:
Joe Mather rf 25 .227 .289 .394 117 406 40 92 21 1 15 46 28 81 4 0
Russell Branyan* 3b 32 .220 .335 .424 77 191 26 42 9 0 10 26 32 67 1 0

So Mather is a cheaper version of Branyan who is projected to get more then twice as many ABs. I think Mather will be better then this eventually but it still struck me as kinda funny.

]]> By: BigJawnMize http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8253 BigJawnMize Wed, 10 Oct 2007 13:09:42 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8253 Liam- I am now at peace with the world. Az- Gawd I totally hope so. There are postitions that teams should not be spending money on at all. The best solution for the bench and bullpen are using homegrown talent or AAAA players aquired on the cheap from other teams. If you kept your bench under $5 million, your bullpen under $10 million, and had a league minimum fifth starter; that leaves $85+ million on 13 starting players. We should be able to win with that. Liam-

I am now at peace with the world.

Az-

Gawd I totally hope so. There are postitions that teams should not be spending money on at all. The best solution for the bench and bullpen are using homegrown talent or AAAA players aquired on the cheap from other teams. If you kept your bench under $5 million, your bullpen under $10 million, and had a league minimum fifth starter; that leaves $85+ million on 13 starting players. We should be able to win with that.

]]> By: the red baron http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8250 the red baron Wed, 10 Oct 2007 11:04:23 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8250 I'll second that, azru. Especially at this particular moment, the young relief corp this team could potentially dip into in the 2008 or 2009 seasons looks to be ridiculously talented. They may not have developed any starters yet, but the farm system certainly looks as if there will be some serious bullpen talent on the way very soon. And hell, relievers seem to be the main demographic for Cardinal starting pitchers these days anyway, so we could have some rotation help before we think. I’ll second that, azru. Especially at this particular moment, the young relief corp this team could potentially dip into in the 2008 or 2009 seasons looks to be ridiculously talented. They may not have developed any starters yet, but the farm system certainly looks as if there will be some serious bullpen talent on the way very soon.

And hell, relievers seem to be the main demographic for Cardinal starting pitchers these days anyway, so we could have some rotation help before we think.

]]> By: azruavatar http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8240 azruavatar Wed, 10 Oct 2007 04:36:28 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8240 Liam - that was very Zen. I think I'll sleep well tonight. . . w/r/t the Hoffpauir projection, ZiPS relies on a lot of regression and since Hoffpauir really had a breakout year the previous two years are probably what's surpressing that projection (I'm wagering a guess here). It's been documented that he retooled his stance and approach at the plate this year and I think the results bear that out. I think he's considerably better than that projection. I'm a little surprised by the Motte projection. I hope that the Cardinals really shift away from importing more than a veteran or two into each years bullpen. Our relief prospects seem good enough to handle that bullpen on the cheap all by themselves. Liam - that was very Zen. I think I’ll sleep well tonight. . .

w/r/t the Hoffpauir projection, ZiPS relies on a lot of regression and since Hoffpauir really had a breakout year the previous two years are probably what’s surpressing that projection (I’m wagering a guess here). It’s been documented that he retooled his stance and approach at the plate this year and I think the results bear that out. I think he’s considerably better than that projection.

I’m a little surprised by the Motte projection. I hope that the Cardinals really shift away from importing more than a veteran or two into each years bullpen. Our relief prospects seem good enough to handle that bullpen on the cheap all by themselves.

]]> By: Liam http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8230 Liam Wed, 10 Oct 2007 02:32:37 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8230 BigJawnMize, There's no such thing as karma. All we have are ball and strikes. There are good balls and bad balls, and good strikes and good strikes. Reyes needs to throw more good strikes, fewer good balls, fewer bad balls, and far fewer bad strikes and he'll be stud. The only bad karma a pitcher can bring on himself are certain types of bad balls, high n' inside. BigJawnMize,

There’s no such thing as karma. All we have are ball and strikes.

There are good balls and bad balls, and good strikes and good strikes.

Reyes needs to throw more good strikes, fewer good balls, fewer bad balls, and far fewer bad strikes and he’ll be stud.

The only bad karma a pitcher can bring on himself are certain types of bad balls, high n’ inside.

]]> By: BigJawnMize http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8205 BigJawnMize Tue, 09 Oct 2007 17:00:28 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8205 I doubt that whoever takes over as the new regime is going to dump Reyes simply because they will analyze his peripheral stats and realize that he has potential beyond what his ERA would suggest. I think everyone could agree that Reyes needed a change of scenery and he is about to get it if he stays. Given Reyes bad karma, Mozeliak will trade him to the Yankees a day before they hire Larussa as their next manager. I doubt that whoever takes over as the new regime is going to dump Reyes simply because they will analyze his peripheral stats and realize that he has potential beyond what his ERA would suggest. I think everyone could agree that Reyes needed a change of scenery and he is about to get it if he stays. Given Reyes bad karma, Mozeliak will trade him to the Yankees a day before they hire Larussa as their next manager.

]]> By: azruavatar http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8204 azruavatar Tue, 09 Oct 2007 16:09:29 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8204 It's important to note that these are projections for minor leaguers rather than direct MLEs on past performance (meaning there's additional uncertainty associated in the projection). I'm a believer in MLEs with the caveat that they're rough measuring sticks. ZiPS does <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/forecast_evaluations/#comments" rel="nofollow">very well as a projection system</a>. Nothing here particularly surprises me as far as the minor leaguers go. I do like the optimistic forecast for Reyes (not that it will come true, rather that people are too willing to give up on him). Liam's right in that the projection line would make Colby nearly a league average CF at age 21 -- which is incredible. The Mark Worrell projection doesn't work for me at all. He's a ROOGy in the most extreme case and I think that he could be very valuable to a pen if he was used exclusively against right-handers. I could easily see him having an ERA below 4.5 if used properly. The other thing that concerns me is the Brendan Ryan projection. I've written multiple times that he definitely wasn't as good as he was playing at times due to his high average but I wonder if I was still a little too optimistic for him next year. The Cardinals really need to find several candidates at SS because I'm not confident in any of the in house options (Eckstein, Ryan, Miles). It’s important to note that these are projections for minor leaguers rather than direct MLEs on past performance (meaning there’s additional uncertainty associated in the projection). I’m a believer in MLEs with the caveat that they’re rough measuring sticks.

ZiPS does very well as a projection system. Nothing here particularly surprises me as far as the minor leaguers go. I do like the optimistic forecast for Reyes (not that it will come true, rather that people are too willing to give up on him). Liam’s right in that the projection line would make Colby nearly a league average CF at age 21 — which is incredible.

The Mark Worrell projection doesn’t work for me at all. He’s a ROOGy in the most extreme case and I think that he could be very valuable to a pen if he was used exclusively against right-handers. I could easily see him having an ERA below 4.5 if used properly.

The other thing that concerns me is the Brendan Ryan projection. I’ve written multiple times that he definitely wasn’t as good as he was playing at times due to his high average but I wonder if I was still a little too optimistic for him next year. The Cardinals really need to find several candidates at SS because I’m not confident in any of the in house options (Eckstein, Ryan, Miles).

]]> By: sportsman http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8201 sportsman Tue, 09 Oct 2007 14:48:32 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/10/08/zip-it-good/#comment-8201 Ludwick seems worth a shot at least at a platoon level. He's had a rocky injury history, but if you look past that and his age, he had had a very impressive debut with an improving BA as he played more. Need to take some chances next year and a bunch of mid-priced risks as they have pursued in the past does not seem the best way to transition to the "new regime". That said, I do support Piniero. He is one of the few pitchers they are looking at that I've seen in person and I was impressed. Bring back Mike Lincoln too! Ludwick seems worth a shot at least at a platoon level. He’s had a rocky injury history, but if you look past that and his age, he had had a very impressive debut with an improving BA as he played more. Need to take some chances next year and a bunch of mid-priced risks as they have pursued in the past does not seem the best way to transition to the “new regime”. That said, I do support Piniero. He is one of the few pitchers they are looking at that I’ve seen in person and I was impressed. Bring back Mike Lincoln too!

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