erik and I are going to begin unveiling our respective Top 25 lists in sets of 5. We’re doing separate lists and I think there are going to be some surprising differences. We strive to provide you with the best prospect coverage we can here collecting and processing information from a myriad of sources (Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, The Birdhouse, First Inning, etc.) and by doing separate lists it provides us with an opportunity to elucidate our differences on certain prospects.
When we write DPRs during the season, there’s a lot of off the cuff reaction. Rhetorical questions, interesting points and the days action are all included. The process of ranking the prospects was a wildly different ordeal for me requiring me to take a step back and evaluate the entire system. It wasn’t an easy task. I’m pretty comfortable with my end result and it’s something that you can hold me to moving forward. If both erik and I are still writing here at FR in 3-4 years (and who knows if that will happen), it should be interesting to look back at these lists and see how we did. So, without further prefacing, here are my prospects #25-21.
#25 - Blake King
It’s all about the upside with Blake King. He took a step backwards this past year getting demoted from Quad Cities to Batavia due to his wretched command. He features a power fastball and slider combination as the bread’n'butter of his repertoire. The piggyback setup wasn’t kind to King in QC and I don’t think he’s going to stick as a starting pitcher but his pure stuff is among the top 5 in the system. Look for him to move to the pen permanently if he continues to struggle out of the rotation.
#24 - Daryl Jones
Another upside pick who barely edged out Jon Edwards and Edgar Lara in terms of potential. I’ve seen Jones and while he still hasn’t shown anything in his performance to date, he oozes athleticism in person. He’s got a cannon for an arm with good speed and good instincts in the outfield. He’ll still only be 20 entering next year and if he translates tools into performance, he’ll quickly rise up prospect lists.
#23 - Mark McCormick
Injuries have plagued McCormick over the last two years limiting him to just a few innings this year and less than 60 in 2006. With a fastball that can touch 98, he’s your archetypal power pitcher. There are questions about his command (although most Cardinal pitchers have those questions attached to them) and his ability to stay healthy is obviously a concern. What McCormick needs more than anything else is just a injury free season at Palm Beach — experience at this point is critical. As more recent draftees have stolen McCormick’s spotlight, it’s easy to forget the potential that he represents even if he is an incredible long shot to reach it.
#22 - Cody Haerther
I’ve taken some hits before about Haerther because I’m not really a fan. He put together a good year posting a .289/.377/.486 line in Springfield with decent power and a surprising walk rate. If he can maintain those peripherals moving up to Memphis next year, he’ll probably see time with the big league team. His only ticket to the majors is his bat, however, as he features below average defense in left field. If everything comes out right, he could be a bench player a la David Dellucci for a few years. Limited upside but performance at the plate garnered him the 22nd spot in my Top 25.
#21 - Tyler Greene
I’ve had a bit of a falling out with Tyler Greene. He’s another upside pick for me and I may be ranking him too low — he caused me no shortage of problems when compiling this list. In the end, his ranking is a combination of 3 things: a) the need to shift from SS to 3B defensively, b) blowing out his knee this season and c) his inability to hit for average. He still offers raw power and athleticism but the former first round pick has really only had one truly good half-season at Quad Cities in 2006. He strikes out often enough that it gives me cause for concern and I’m usually willing to overlook strikeouts in prospects. Greene may or may not play in Memphis next year depending on what the team decides to do with Jose Martinez. With Pete Kozma coming up behind him, Greene needs to step up the performance quickly. In the end, I guess I expected more from a college product selected in the first round.
Filed under: Top 25
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I agree with you that Greene should be shifted to 3B. I am also down on Greene as he hasn’t really shown anything performance wise. So far to me all he has shown is that he strikes out alot, is below average defensively at SS, and is injury prone.
I’m glad you didn’t put Jones any higher. After seeing his swing, I’d have a tough time putting him in the Top 50. I agree that he is an athlete, but the chances of him making it are less than probably 5%. He is only 20, but at some point you have to produce something to be considered a prospect. I really hope they overhaul his swing this winter and start over.
If McCormick can stay healthy for an entire season I will do backflips. He has the type of stuff that I think the Cards need to draft more of, pure power pitchers.
Blake King needs to be switched to the bullpen this year. The guy has no chance to make to the big leagues as a starter. His stuff kind of reminds of Marmol of the Cubs. I really hope he starts off the season in the bullpen.
I’d have a hard time ranking Jones above Edwards. I recognize that Edwards didn’t progress as we had hoped in ‘07, but he has a cannon for an arm and cannon-like distance on some of his HRs. I found his success in a handful of games at Batavia very satisfying. I think his expected value (probability of making the majors x expected contribution) is significantly higher than Jones’s.
So far I agree also, I really am down on greene, I almost wish they would just cut strings and get him out of the system. I think he needs a fresh start somewhere else. As far as McCormick, I pray for a healthy season, I love to see him just rear back and let er rip! It reminds me of someone like Zumya. Ya got to love the heat. In regards to Jones I feel like he is comparable to a rubix cube. The pieces are all there but he just isn’t ever gonna figure it out. Hell I know I can’t even get three colors in a row on a rubix cube so I don’t know if he will ever get fixed.
Question though? What became of Josh Kinney? and Dennis Dove? Just wondering???
Would someone in the Cardinals Orginization Just Announce Anotnetti is Moving to Clayton!!!!!! Please!!! I am tired of waitng!
Kinney had Tommy John surgery during spring training. He should be ready by next spring. Dove I am not sure of but he didn’t do “bad” in his major league outings so we will just have to see what they make of him.
Kinney had TJ. Look for him to come back early to mid season this upcoming season. dove has shoulder issues, i’m uncertain to what extent or if he’s had surgery or what, but shoulder usually = bad. (edit) hugo beat me to it.
Az - easy to see that you are big on “upside” and potential. I’d be surprised if there is another list anywhere that has Blake King in the top 25.
That was Kinney’s second TJ surgery. I fear he may whisper away like Mike Lincoln did.
cariocacardinal - Kevin Goldstein rated King as a sleeper pick last year at the end of his top 10. After you see who may not have made the list we can debate whether there was someone more qualified from the system. . .but I don’t think there is.
Az - my point is that I doubt Goldstein will have King on any list this year. I’m not saying you’re ranking is wrong by any means. Just saying that it may be “unique” in its emphasis on upside vs. current performance.
Nice list - Sure beats #20-25 just a few years ago. Though I ultimately would rate all of these players a bit higher myself based on ultimate upside (I think) its nice to see so many players with tools to have a chance…. I really like King notwithstanding the walks - he’s pretty young to potentially be in High A next year (end of year of course)…
As for Kinney: As someone who knows Kinney I think I can shed some light on it. He had Tommy John surgery which was a success. Once he started his light toss he was extremely unlucky and ended up breaking his elbow. The doctors told him it shouldn’t have any effect on his recovery from TJ surgery it just ended his throwing sessions. He will be ready by spring training. Knowing Josh he is probably hunting in Quincy or his hometown in PA between rehab right now. He is a tough dude and has fought through injuries since college. He has had problems in the past and played through them to ensure he could get the shot he got back in 06. Don’t doubt that he won’t come back and play at a high level again. As long as he doesn’t shoot himself in the foot while hunting anyway.