AZ got things kicked off earlier today, so here goes nothing. You may have noticed the “System at a Glance” on the left sidebar, which is my own little concoction. It is somewhat of the basis of how I came up with this list, and I will admit it is pretty subjective and full of hunches, though most it I came up with by results first and foremost, so that does add some objectivity to it. Then I take into consideration numerous scouting reports from the usual sources like BA or Kevin Goldstein, and in some cases, my own two eyes. And in other cases, what other fans have been kind enough to share with me.
And away we go….
#25 Luis de la Cruz. This choice leans heavy on a glowing scouting report from Chris Kline at BA, who rated him the best catcher in the GCL. He’s reportedly got all the intangibles you look for in a catcher, and he’s a plus blocking balls and nullifying the running game. He hit .281/.337/.385 in 96 at bats, and was compared to a young Pudge Rodriguez.
#24 D’Marcus Ingram. Maybe I’m overly enamored by early returns, but I really like Ingram. Early reports say he’s a good defender in center, and he has the batting eye, patience and speed you like to see coming from the lead off position. He furthered his prospect status in my eye, and in the eye of the club by hitting .343 in the instructional league, with a .686 slugging %.
#23 Cody Haerther. Haerther was lost for most of the season with a sore right wrist and was recovering from surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in the same hand. He came back with vengeance in August, hitting .270/.387/.517 with 4 homers in 107 plate appearances. In nearly in 1500 at bats, Haerther has hit for average, got on base and displayed moderate power. He’s suffered a number of injuries, mostly due to broken bones (he also had a hairline fracture to his tibia in 2003). I’m surprised it was Marti, not Haerther sent to the AFL. Haerther will be 25 next year. He needs to stay healthy. He looks like a platoon OF, particularly because he’s struggled to hit lefties. For whatever it is worth, his #4 PECOTA comp is Andre Ethier.
#22 Kyle McClellan. Local product came back from Tommy John with a vengeance. His velocity improved after coming back, throwing a 90-93 sinking fastball among a full arsenal, missing plenty of bats. Gets ground balls by the truck load and is a strike thrower, walking just 10 batters over 60 innings of work. There’s a shot he could move into the Memphis rotation next year, which is a big reason why I have him this high. He’s getting hit around a bit in the AFL.
# 21 Jonathan Edwards. What sticks out like a sore thumb is the strikeouts, 67 of them in 188 at bats repeating rookie ball in Johnson City. He still showed good power potential, posting nearly a .200 ISO again. He also takes his fair share of walks. In 35 plate appearances for Batavia, he hit .394/.429/.606. At 19 years old, he stands at 6-5, 230 and has already shown some power. Since power and batting eye are usually something a player grows into with age, his upside looks like a Three True Outcome type of slugger. He also is known to have a pretty solid arm in RF.
Filed under: Top 25
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Not that Edwards no longer has potential but I’m surprised so many people rank him so high after this season. THE GUY REGRESSED WHILE AT THE SAME LEVEL. To top that off, last year he had a wrist injury and a hamstring injury and still had better numbers than this year. We can only hope the last few weeks in Batavia were the real deal and not the other 6 months (I say six because his Spring training and extended Spring training stats also were horrendous.)
CC-NO NEED TO SHOUT
he did regress, he became a nasty hacker but that’s a correctable problem. guys who strike out a lot also tend to hit for power and walk, which he does. he can’t survive striking out 25-30% of his PA’s, but if he can cut it 5%-10% then he’s golden.
Love the System at a Glance spreadsheet. What about a flag for Mark Hamilton…something to the effect of “No spot on the big league club?”
I really liked the “system at a glance” post. It is a good source for really looking at the overview of the minor league system as a whole. The thing that really strikes me is our lack of truly impact hitters and starters. The organization could be in a lot of trouble if a couple of those key guys gets hurt or doesn’t live up to expectations. After watching the baseball playoffs it really hit home to me the importance of a good minor league system. Just in the NLCS and ALCS all 4 of those teams have produced multiple impact players: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Red Sox, Indians. Heck just looking at the Red Sox…the starting pitcher who closed out the World Series (Lester), the leadoff and 2nd hitter (Ellsbury, Pedroia), closer (Papelbon).
On that list it really just made it really clear that the Cards lack impact players. We have a ton of guys that could contribute and be solid role players, but besides Rasmus I don’t see any blue chip can’t miss prospects. Imagine if Garcia’s elbow plagues him, Anderson can’t improve his defense and his power doesn’t develop, Ottavino can’t master the 2-seamer and continues to struggle with commond. Worst case scenerios, but not exactly unrealistic. All I know is I’m just hoping Antonetti just hurries up signs on as GM.
Enjoyed system at a glance as well. Very nice. I thought overall their wasn’t much to argue with in the rankings, but alas, I will add my two cents anyway::::
1. Ankiel 6.5/5 - I would go with more of an 7.5/7 seeing as how it seems likely that he will be able to master an OPS of 800 as I type here today with a likely OPS (in my eyes only I am sure) of 850. Add at least average to plus defense and I get more than role player…
2. Worrell 6/5 - I am firmly ensconded onto/into the MW bandwagon. I like him more as a solid setup/RH reliever. I like the consistent K/9, deceptive delivery and “reportedly” 91-93 MPH fastball. Ultimately his value will depend almost entirely on his ability to get lefties out, but I am a believer and I’d give him more of a 7.5/7 myself. Not tons of upside but not much to prove either…
3. McCormick 8/2 - I am OK with his rating but would disagree with the probability. His K/9 is out of this world (stuff factor seems on the high side). If you are talking probability of being a big league starting pitcher I wouldn’t be that far off, but his likelihood of getting to the bigs and contributing (potentially as a middle reliever) I would peg at 5 at least… He has electric stuff…
They as an aside I find myself wondering how much better Perez is as compared to Motte. I would say it is close to a dead heat with the FB - as for the slider - that is the difference isn’t it….
You all will notice that i change it as time goes on, so don’t read too much into anything, i suppose.
lawless, to answer some of your qualms, i’ll give you more of an explanation.
I like Ankiel, quite a bit. But the whole shadow of PEDS is hard for me to ignore. and the fact that he doesn’t walk and i wonder when big league pitchers will start to exploit him. he’s got all kinds of ability, but i remain a little skeptical.
on worrell..I like him, i think he can be successful, but TLR and DD didn’t seem to like him all that much and i’m wary of guys who are quirky. not to say he can’t succeed, but at best i seem him as a situational reliever, which has value of course, but doesn’t make or break a team.
mccormick. i’ve seen him in person, he has great stuff. but he’s wild as all get out, and i don’t know if his velo will return after being hit with shoulder issues. some scouts don’t like his mechanics and that probably led to his shoulder issue. shoulder=big red flag, just ask mark mulder. i have hopes he could be another bobby jenks minus a hundred pounds or so, but he will have to learn to pitch and not just throw heat. he may have to after missing nearly the entire season. i would not bet on him reaching the majors. to me, an 8 is a middle of the rotation guy, #2-3 guy. I think he has a 2/10 shot at that.
chris-it is scary. after jocketty was fired people at veb would ask me what i thought about the team’s future and my answer was a little negative. i just am not sure i like the job luhnow is doing, esp. when you consider the aforementioned teams. i give him A for effort, but C for results. the system has got a lot deeper, but as far as impact it’s pretty iffy. a lot has to go right. they seem to do a great job in the later rounds picking up nifty sleeper types, but the beginning of the draft they are not maximizing in terms of impact. one guy however i am very excited about, and i will get into it later, is Clay Mortensen. i may sound like a fool later, but i have a good feeling about him being the most impact of this past draft of any other player drafted this year. but i could be way out on a limb here.
Eric-I think you and I see Lunhow and the entire Cards drafting process very similarly. I definitely think the Cards need someone like Lunhow in the organization, a statistical analysis guy. I have also commented that the Cards have done quite a bit to fill the organization with some depth. I think looking at the type of chart, whether everyone agrees with potential and probability numbers put up, really speaks to the questions raised by organizations like BA and fans like us. The lack of true impact guys is pretty glaring. I also see the potential of guys like Mortenson, Herron, and even Kozma; but if you really compare our Top 10 with teams like the Dbacks, Dodgers, Indians and so on our system is rightly ranked at the bottom. Unfortunately it is in the top portion of the draft that we have really faltered. I really hope that guys like Mortenson, Anderson, Ottavino, Herron and Garcia materialize because if they don’t it will take the next GM whoever that ends up being another 5 years to rebuild this thing.