Future Redbirds

TINSTAAPP believers beware: the Cardinals top 10 is heavy on the hurlers.

#10 - PJ Walters

I wanted to rate Walters lower than this, I really did. 85 mph fastballs are not characteristic of major league pitches. Anecdotal examples aside, they just aren’t. Walters relies on his extreme control and ability to locate his pitches at will to get batters out. And that’s just what he did posting a walk rate under 5% between low and high A ball while striking out more than 25% of the batters he faced. Those are remarkable numbers. He’s someone who will have to continually overcome his skeptics because his pure stuff wouldn’t seem to translate to the numbers he’s posting.

#9 - Allen Craig

I’m a Craig fan while not being a Hamilton fan because Craig has at least some modicum of chance to stay at 3rd. Even if he moves to first, he’s probably still better defensively than Hamilton and I don’t think his bat is any worse. That chance that he can stay at 3rd makes a big difference though. He went through some injury problems this year but posted good power, decent walk rates and nice line drive power over the course of the season. Not surprisingly, his numbers outside of Palm Beach were considerably better than at home. He could be poised for a 30+ HR season at Springfield next year if he stays healthy.

#8 - Jason Motte

Motte features a mid-nineties fastball that touches 98. Let’s just do a quick thought exercise: 98mph fastball + no command = Brandon Morrow. I don’t particularly worry about Motte not having any breaking or offspeed pitches. If he can locate his fastball, he’s probably capable of being in the bullpen right now. The Mariners drafted Morrow and threw him directly into their pen. The idea that every player has to be utterly refined before they reach the majors is wrong. Motte’s unheralded relative to Chris Perez (who has a very good breaking ball that Motte lacks) but I think Motte is closer to MLB ready. He doesn’t have the upside that Perez may have, unless he suddenly develops an average complimentary pitch, but he’s another in a solid crop of relievers that the Cardinals should begin mixing into their pen as they phase out the Springers and Franklins of the world.

#7 - Clayton Mortensen

I finally figured out what it is that Mortensen is doing that has caught me so of guard: not walking people. Reports of him heading into the draft mentioned his plus fastball but that he had average secondary stuff and bad command. I’m not sure if the Cardinals changed something in his delivery or if it’s a small sample size fluke but that’s not something I expected out of him. If the command stays, he’s potentially a front of the rotation starter with the ability to miss bats and get groundballs in droves. Next year is important and I’d like to see him start at Palm Beach before midseason. I like this more than the Kozma selection, which is a reversal from my opinion around draft time.

#6 - Tyler Herron

He struck out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings. A sinking fastball with an average curve and change plus (yet again) surprisingly good command accounted for Herron really making a mark this year. He pitched the whole season in QC — most of which was spent in that piggyback setup. I’m not sure what effect that had on players stats. In the long run, I think it’s probably better for their arms but also pads their numbers a bit so don’t be surprised if Herron and other QC starters take a step back next year. Herron doesn’t have the pure stuff of other pitchers in the system but he’s a more refined package at this point.