Have you seen this before?
#5 - Adam Ottavino
A fastball that sits in the low 90s and a slider to complement it are the core of Ottavino’s repertoire. Command is a question (as it so often seems to be) but the movement that he gets on his pitches compensates. He doesn’t have to be as precise as a PJ Walters; finding the strike zone with his pitches will be key. He’s been labeled a mid-rotation starter to a middle reliever. I lean more toward the mid-rotation starter but I’m hopeful that he can add an offspeed pitch to go with his breaking stuff.
#4 - Chris Perez
I’ve had the same song and dance from the very beginning with Perez. His command sucks. It’s the difference between him being Jorge Julio versus Jose Valverde. While it isn’t a huge concern for he, his GB rate took a nose dive this year at Springfield. It rebounded in Memphis but the number of innings he pitched at each spot prevents us from drawing anything conclusive. He’s going to be a major league, the question is really whether he’s going to be a closer or not.
#3 - Bryan Anderson
Scouting reports cite Anderson as turning into a plus offensive prospect — enough so that it’s possible that he could switch positions. The questions mostly lie with his defense behind the plate. Not surprisingly, I really don’t have any concerns about his defense because catcher defense is overrated and he’s not that bad behind the plate. I’m still waiting for that gap-to-gap power to develop that was advertised. Both his walk-rate and strikeout rate went in the wrong direction this year at Springfield. Neither are terrible and he hit nearly .300 but wasn’t the offensive force that I had hoped to see. Still relative to catching prospects, he’s a very good one.
#2 - Jaime Garcia
Damn that balky elbow. It’s hard to know exactly where to put Garcia. If he had required surgery, he wouldn’t have made my top 5. The organization is saying all the right things right now — “he’ll be ready at the start of next season”, “he just took some time to rest and rehab his elbow”, etc. — but I’m still very concerned. All that aside, Garcia is the most polished starter in the system. He features a sinking fastball with a plus-curveball as a real outpitch. He held his own at Springfield last year and it’s possible he could start in Memphis. (Hell, it’s not like we have pitching prospects blocking him in Memphis.)
#1 - Colby Rasmus
There isn’t a player in the major leagues that I would trade straight up for Colby Rasmus right now. Not one. Rasmus is a true centerfielder with 30 HR power. He’ll hit for average, he takes walks and he runs the bases well. He’s a perennial all-star in the making and the player that is most likely to revive the major league team on arrival. The combination of speed, power and premium defense is hard to find and Rasmus is going to be that for 6 cost-controlled years. He’s the only truly elite talent in the system and if the Cardinals were to trade him, I’d honestly take a hiatus as a fan. He’s that good.
Filed under: Top 25
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
When thinking about Garcia’s elbow just remember tha Wainright was shut down with an elbow problems for a couple of months in the minors also. That works for me until I remember that this is the Cards medical staff we’re dealing with.
I think the Top 5 is pretty much Rasmus, Garcia, Anderson and some ordering of Ottavino and Perez for most people. It will be interesting to see how Goold ranks em along with everyone else but yeah that is pretty much how I would be going with them now too. Garcia scares me just like he does you guys but I really think he could be good and Wainwright, Garcia, Ottavino in a few years will be quite a sight to see, must be what the tigers felt like watching Verlander and Robertson move up their system.
It says something about the lack of depth in the Cards system that there is no disagreement about which players belong in the Cards top 5 prospects. Lets hope by next year at this time that the state has changed.
Well next year we could possibly have 3 of those top 5 on the big league club depending on how things shape out. (I see the possibility that 4 of them could be up but I doubt all 4 would be, Garcia could shine and be up mid season, especially if Carp isn’t on track, Perez is an easy one to slot in possibly, Rasmus and Anderson both are possible and very likely to get Cups of coffee at the least)
Not sure where to put this but according to BA the following all became minor league free agents
St. Louis Cardinals (13)
Righthanders: Hugo Castellanos, Chris Russ, Julio Sanchez, Mike Smith
Lefthanders: Troy Cate, Chris Narveson, Mike Venafro
Catchers: Danny Ardoin, Ryan Christianson, Brian Esposito
First baseman: Tagg Bozied
Third baseman: Juan Richardson
Shortstop: Rico Washington
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=644
I would imagine they just clear up some needed room on the rosters for people advancing who are actually potential prospects. I don’t see anyone they need to keep in there… anyone else?
Wouldn’t mind keeping Narveson around for pitching depth (For some reason I still hold out hope he can be a valuable major league pitcher), but the rest of the bunch are just organizational filler.
speaking of which… Would a potential 2008 rosters post be worth doing or too difficult to predict? I can think of 5 pitchers that could/should be starting in memphis next year (tell me if I’m on crack…): pomeranz, boggs, garcia, hawksworth, parisi.. and I’m sure I’m missing some possibilities. Boggs, garcia and hawksworth could probably spot start - not sure we really need narveson.
not a single major leaguer you would trade Rasmus for? That seems a little strong…what does that mean? Does that mean you think he’s worth more than, say, Chase Utley (just picked someone out of a hat). I ask this because Rasmus could still be a bust. I am confident he will be a major leaguer, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a major league star. Most of the magazines don’t think he’s better than Justin Upton or Jay Bruce. I’m just saying this for the sake of argument, I don’t want to trade Rasmus, but that’s different from saying there is no one I would trade him for. That’s like being willing to pay absolutely any price for the stock of a company you like.
PS - I hope he’s a major league star. I hope he’s better than Albert. I just don’t know that it will happen.
Someone compared him to Jim Edmonds, I would love it if he could be that good or better. But I would never say there was no one i would trade jim edmonds for.
Thanks for all of your work on this guys. It’s a quick place to get prospect info.
Matt/6 - There’s a couple of arms that may fill out the back of a bullpen (Cate, Castellanos) but other than that those players are career minor leaguers or old players that just aren’t very good anymore. Narveson may or may not be resigned by the team but at this point the odds are he’s never going to make the majors. His stuff just hasn’t recovered from injuries.
Todd/9 - It is a strong statement. It’s meant to be. Rasmus is an answer to several problems facing the major league team right now: a) poor defense up the middle b) lack of power production c) lack of young, cheap talent. The Cardinals can’t afford to trade a budding star for anyone already established in the minors. It’s one thing when we discuss saving money by putting guys like Motte in the pen; it’s an entirely different beast when we talk about the value of Rasmus. The fact that he’s the only elite prospect in the system is something that shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Do I think he’s worth more than Chase Utley? I think he could be better than Utley (who is already 28) and at this point he’s cheaper. That would be an awfully enticing trade but. . . I still think I’d pass. If I was to recant that statement, it would probably only be for a young player like Troy Tulowitzki — i.e. someone who only has a year in the majors, is good offensively and plays premium up the middle defense. In the end, the Cardinals can’t afford to give up his pre-arb years with the way payroll is right now.
I don’t think there’s any real doubt that Rasmus is going to make the majors at this point. The question is how good he’s going to be. I think he’s a perennial all-star.
one thing to consider with perez’s extremely low groundball rate in springfield is his enormous pop-up rate. obviously that will kill a GO:FO ratio, but i think it shows more dominating stuff than getting groundballs. i think a great stat would be something like (groundouts+strikeouts+infield pop outs)/(flyouts+lineouts)
Matt- It would be very difficult to predict rosters at this point. If we’re just talking the Memphis rotation, though, I think that’s a reasonable expectation. I think Garcia will stay in Springfield, though, and Rauschenberger will be in the Memphis rotation. Also, what if guys like McClellan and Maiques are converted into starters? Daniels and Haberer also pitched at least well enough to be considered. Never know what Mark McCormick’s going to do. Always interesting to guess, though.
AZ — you’re dead on about Anderson’s defense. With the way Cards’ pitchers control the running game, and the fact that people have figured out that SB’s are overrated, Anderson doesn’t have to throw like Yadi behind the plate to be half-ass effective. His hitting will propel him beyond Yadi in the very near future, if the Cards’ brass allows it.
I took a stab at the Memphis and Springfield rosters here.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=321&f=2089#s=321&f=2089&t=1098408
I looked at Palm Beach and QC here.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=321&f=2089#s=321&f=2089&t=1182604
Who knows how accurate it will turn out being. Besides trades, etc, Spring training performance can greatly influence these. One also has to make assumptions about who will be moved from starting to relieving and vice versa.
Um, yeah if you wouldn’t trade Colby for Felix Hernandez you’re pretty much crazy. And if you want to say the 6 year control thing, I’ll give you Justin Upton who is a scouts dream. Just my opinion though.
Shhh — I didn’t realize how many plate appearance Upton received last year. . . that’s a swap I would probably make.
Felix Hernandez. . .probably not. He’s an ace pitcher but again, he’s close to arb. If the Cardinals had done a better job with payroll flexibility then I don’t think I could make that statement with any degree of certainty. It’s not about the talent, I’ll admit there are better players but Colby represents a unique value to the Cardinals (cheap All-star) that they can’t afford to trade.
(And this is all really academic because we know that it’s impossible to get these types of players straight up for Rasmus.)
Can we loan about half our outfielders to the Mexican League? That would make predictions a lot easier.
Memphis:
C- Anderson, 1B- Hamilton, 2B- Hoffpauir, 3B- Barden, SS- Martinez, LF- Haerther/Marti, CF- Rasmus, RF- Mather
Rotation- Hawksworth, Parisi, Boggs, Rauschenberger, Pomeranz
Bullpen- Cavazos, Haberer, Dove, Sillma, Motte, Worrell, Perez
Springfield:
C- Yabrough, 1B- Buckman, 2B- Nelson, 3B- Craig, SS- Greene, LF- Shorey, CF- Jay, RF- Gorsett
Rotation- Garcia, Walters, Ottavino, Norrick, McClellan
Bullpen- Hearne, Daniels, Degerman, Zuercher, Webber, Smith, Gregerson
I agree with not trading Rasmus. Espically not for any starting pitcher. In my book impact position players are worth more than pitchers. They are much less likely to get seriously hurt and their year to year projections are much more stable.
I would like to see us be more agressive bringing players to the MLB team, and then play them. Most of our veteran talent is established, much of it established bad. I would rather take a chance on players with upside if it won’t hurt their progress.
CC, that’s a good guess at the rosters, but I think Martinez and especially Hamilton stay at AA. Hamilton just didn’t hit in AA, he’s got more to prove before he moves up. Martinez i could maybe see, but he’s young and i’m not sure how much they should rush him.