Future Redbirds

Tyler Norrick doesn’t get as much attention as he deserves, in my opinion. Therefore, he is the subject of this edition of our prospect profiles.

Sorry that it has been a while since the last, I’m starting to understand more and more of you are already very familiar with the who’s who in the Cardinal system so I’m not sure how many of these are worth doing. Nonetheless, it is fun to take a close look at the Cardinal prospects; it gives us a better idea of what they can bring to the table.

Norrick was selected in the 6th round of the 2006 out of Southern Illinois, the 196th overall pick of the draft. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Norrick in the 17th round the previous year and offered him good money to sign, but he opted go back to college for his senior year. He fell as far as he did because there were questions about his sign-ability. BA ranked him the 81st best college player going into the the draft. Brewerfan.net went as far to rank him the 105th best overall amateur headed to the draft.

Norrick is a live-armed lefty whose fastball has touched 94 mph and works comfortably in the low-90s. His success as a junior in 2005 was a big reason for Southern Illinois’ surprising season. He decided to return to SIU after being drafted in the 17th round by the Blue Jays last summer, although he hasn’t fared nearly as well his senior season.

He didn’t fair as well in his 2005 season. In ’05, he posted a 3.24 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 80.7 IP and allowed just a 1.18 WHIP. In 2006 he threw 77 innings, had a 4.44 ERA with 68 K’s and a 1.47 WHIP. He could’ve signed with the Jays the year before for nearly the same signing bonus. Instead, he did nothing to further his stock. He missed a month of his final season as a collegiate due to inflammation in his left shoulder.

Scouting Perspective:

BA:

Norrick projects as a pro reliever. In short stints and early in starts, he’ll throw 90-92 mph and command his fastball to both sides of the plate. His slider tops out at 78 mph and lacks true two-plane break. He has a good pitcher’s body (6-foot-3, 195 pounds) and the aptitude to tweak his breaking ball and command.

In a recent chat with JJ Cooper:

Norrick’s stuff is fringy, but some managers believe he’ll be a big leaguer, as his absolute lack of fear and willingness to attack hitters means he can have success if he keeps the ball down.

In Norrick’s own words:

I’m throwing the fastball for a strike, both the four-seamer and the two-seamer and throwing good sliders off that. I’m getting bad swings out of my fastball and slider right now.

Minor league performance and projection:

After appearing in just 1 game in the NY Penn League for the Spikes, Norrick struck out 9 batters in 4 IP, and was quickly promoted to the Swing. Here’s his situational independent line in his first taste of A Ball:

Age 22- 65.1 IP, 12.5% BB/PA, 21.5% K/PA, 3% HR/Air, 50% GB%, 3.87 FIP.

The overall numbers aren’t too shabby, but the walks were rather troublesome. The story was Norrick was trying hard to blow everyone away with his fastball. In this past spring training, Norrick bought into the pitch to contact philosophy and added the 2-seam fastball to his repertoire. The results while pitching at Palm Beach were good, mostly.

Age 23-165.1 IP, 10.5% BB/PA, 19.3% K/PA, 4% HR/Air, 42% GB%, 4.02 FIP.

The strikeout per plate appearance rate was 9th in the FSL; on the bad side the walk per PA ratio was the 6th worst among qualifying starters. Norrick was also helped by a .267 BABIP, the 2nd lowest in the league. You would also think with his newfound sinker he would have improved or at least maintained his ground ball rates, but it didn’t happen. For what it’s worth, Clay Davenport’s peak translated line for Norrick is 28 starts, 160.3 IP, 18 HR, 66 BB, 104 K, and a 4.60 DERA. For a point of reference, Wainwright had a DERA of 3.94 last season. Looper had a 4.85. So at least according to numbers alone, Norrick looks like a future 4th starter at his best.

Injury concern

Norrick is said by BA to rush his delivery, putting stress on his shoulder. He suffered the effects in college, but not yet in the pros. The effects of him rushing his delivery can cause him to lose control as well.

Putting it all together

There is a broad variety of outcomes for Norrick. He could be your garden variety loogy, but so far he shows no such type of platoon split. The results in the lower rungs so far have been nifty, but I’m not liking what I’m hearing about his stuff being fringy and his mechanics being hard on his shoulder. He’s a back of rotation starter from what I can draw from his performance, but the scouting reports make him out to be a middle reliever. Maybe he’ll be another Darren Oliver and have a good season or two starting before ultimately relocating to the bullpen. To pretend I’m John Sickels for a second, I’d give him grade C+.