If I haven’t mentioned it previously, I’m a Colby Rasmus fan. I’ve got some pretty high expectations for the kid and can’t wait till he’s another cornerstone of the big league club. When browsing the interweb the other day, I came across this follow-up by Dan Fox. He developed some baserunning statistics for Baseball Prospectus that capture not just the runs produced from stolen bases but also from advancing on different types of balls in play (i.e. how often does a player go from first to third on a flyball). Dan had a BP article that detailed the best and worst of the minors — no Cardinal prospects in either list — and then he followed up with a list of top Baseball America prospects on his blog.
I had happened across this list before but was busy that day and just meandered on by when I didn’t see any Cardinal prospects there either. Someone, going by the moniker Frodo, asked for the numbers on Colby Rasmus, which Dan then provided in the comments. (Thank you, Frodo and Dan.) All told, Rasmus was effectively neutral on the basepaths. It would seem at first blush that Colby struggles with advancing on groundball outs while doing well with outs in the air and advancing on hits. (Here’s a nice summary article of the different stats to give you an idea what each is about.) Colby also scored low on the stolen bases metric which incorporates pickoffs and the like.
As far as what this means going forward, well these stats aren’t necessarily meant to be predictive. The correlations are not particularly awe-inspiring. I think that a worst case scenario is Rasmus being neutral on the basepaths. He’s got enough latent speed that I suspect he’ll be a slightly plus runner throughout his early career. The year-to-year variations may see him spike up to gaining several runs on the paths or maybe even losing a run or two. Of course, the baserunning is going to be heavily outweighed by his above average fielding and excellent offense. If there’s an area that Colby could improve on perhaps using his speed more effectively is one.
When can I buy my Rasmus jersey?
Filed under: Colby Rasmus
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
it won’t let me post the image, so here’s the link. and, i admit. i’m the hobbit who asked about his baserunning. :0 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/files/2007/11/rasjers1.jpg
Will he get to keep 4? I bet Yadi has that covered for awhile.
i knew someone had it, i don’t know why i forgot it was molina’s #. i think molina will see cr hit a few bombs in batting practice, admit he’s unworthy, and give him the #4. didn’t rasmus wear #18 for USA? maybe that’s what he’ll use.
I have a Yadi jersey so I see it almost daily while getting dressed.
A friend of mine has a similar sort of baserunning system for all MLB players from 1957 on, that he calls Bases Produced.
Doesn’t evaluate minor leaguers with it, though.
Speed’s not the only thing. Willie McGee was fast as lightning and an OK basestealer, but an abyssmally poor baserunner. Lonnie “Skates” Smith was a surprisingly bad baserunner, too, while being speedy and an excellent thief. On the other hand, Pujols and Rolen are not terribly fast but are excellent baserunners. Ozzie did it all well.
Good baserunning is like rebounding in basketball. It takes some instinct and coaching, but mostly takes a strong desire to do it well.
After watching Mr. Rasmus all summer at Springfield I believe he will be fine in the running department. Late in the year when they moved him to the lead off spot he was more aggressive on the base paths. I think he wore 14 instead of 18 on the USA team because Eckstein wore 4. Of course you know he won’t be wearing 14 in St. Louis. There is a Rasmus game-worn warmup on ebay right now. It is being offered by the team. Just a side note. After watching the Texas League teams the last 3 years in Springfield he is the best defensive outfielder I have seen at this level. He won several games with his glove and arm when was struggling with the bat.
A nuetral base runner for the Cardinals would be a positive these days!
You can buy the Rasmus T-shirt jersey from the Springfield team store. This summer I got my wife a pink one and one each for my kids.