Future Redbirds

There was some discussion in this thread of why Clayton Mortensen was getting overlooked and should be ranked higher. The arguments there are understable ones and I want to take a moment to talk about the 2007 draftees in general and then Mortensen in specific.

I mentioned when I was working on my Top 25 list that one thing I really struggled with was what to do with 2007 draftees. There was a comment on the finalized lists themselves that the 2007 class was under-represented. Since I don’t have the opportunity to fly around the country and scout all these players first hand (which if the STL Cardinals wanted me to do, I’d gladly set aside my Master’s degree for), it’s difficult to really know how new draftees “stuff” or skillsets would look to me. Without seeing something or reading consistent good reports on those players, I tend to be harder on them than I might someone I’ve seen. I don’t even like looking at statistics below A-ball because the translations from level to level are too steep in my opinion.

So I’m left with a difficult time in ranking those players. Draft round helps somewhat but there’s certainly enough flameouts from the early draft rounds to know that it isn’t a fullproof ranking. I’d rather err on the side of caution with those players than rank them high only to have them crash and burn on me early in the minors. The gap between the GCL, for instance, and the majors is so massive that I’d rather take lesser potential in a prospect at a higher level than bet on some of the new, real low present skills, high ceiling prospects. (As an aside, this is one of the very, very few things about Kevin Goldstein’s lists over at BP that bother me. I think he comes out too high on the most recent draft class and then gradually phases those prospects out over the next few years as the picture clarifies. I also have no idea what his “#-star” rankings mean since he’s failed to clarify that new scale this year.)

Anyway, now let’s talk about Mortensen in specific. He was absolutely spectacular at Quad Cities but there are two important things to be cautious of when we’re evaluating players: sample size and recent performance. The reason that I’m somewhat skeptical of Mortensen still is because his control took a dramatic step forward in Low-A. At draft time, Baseball America’s scouting report said:

His velocity took a jump (up to 92 mph) last summer in the West Coast Collegiate League, but his command remained spotty. [...] His secondary stuff grades as average now, with future plus grades as well: a hard slider and changeup featuring deceptive arm speed. His command is below-average.

Things were much the same at MiLB:

Mortensen needs to make sure he locates his fastball consistently, something he doesn’t always do. He’s improved as the season [his senior year at Gonzaga] has gone on.

That’s not to imply at all that I don’t think Mortensen’s a good prospect. I was very impressed with him this year as he entered the minors and he’s far surpassed what I anticipated from him (which was largely nothing). I ranked him #7 but I want to be cautious about getting overly excited by the early returns. Here’s his stats from college where he posted a 3:1 k:BB but had quite a few WP and HBP. In Batavia he had a 2:1 K:BB.

Then he makes the jump to Quad Cities and he posts a 5:1 K:BB in 40 innings. I don’t know if that’s a fluke or if he made some tweaks to his mechanics or what but that’s a remarkable change in BB rate. I imagine his true talent level for control is somewhere between Batavia and QC. There’s a reason that scouts at BA labeled him as a third rounder — they liked his stuff but there were questions whether he could command his pitches. I’m not convinced those questions have been laid to rest based on 40 innings in low-A.

It’s the Cardinal’s scouts jobs to find hidden treasures and I’m pleased with how Mortensen has done thus far but there’s more history there than just QC. I don’t know what translations from Gonzaga’s conference to the minors would look like but I imagine that someone in the Cardinals front office does. Completely dismissing his age is something I’m not comfortable with either — I know he doesn’t have a choice what league he’s in but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s facing hitters 2 years younger than him. I don’t lay an immense amount of import on pitchers ages since improvement among pitchers isn’t the linear step ladder we see among most position prospects but I like to keep the age in the back of my mind. I’ll be interested to see what he does with a full season in the minors next year.