Joe Strauss serves this one up this AM:
Club sources indicated by week’s end that Rasmus could lose his “untouchable” label in a potential deal for Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Erik Bedard. Such a deal would have to include at least another prominent Cardinals prospect such as Bryan Anderson or Chris Perez.
Erik Bedard is a nice pitcher and all. He even spells his name right-Erik. He’s a strikeout machine with true ace stuff. But the man has never thrown over 200 innings and has a history of injuries. OK, so none have been with his arm as far as we know…he hurt his oblique this year and the previous year his knee. But if you look back at his minor league numbers, and you can see he’s missed a lot of time for some reason. (Someone enlighten me.) I don’t think I’m overvaluing Rasmus here, I just don’t think he’s worth Bedard straight up, and they want Perez and Anderson to boot. If TLR want’s Mozeliak to be Dombrowski and sell the farm, then I hope he has another thing coming. But these rumors are making me a little nervous. It’s one thing to sell the farm for a hitter of Cabrera’s caliber, a player who is still young. It’s another thing to sell the farm for a pitcher who hasn’t been able to stay off the DL.
If this goes down I may revolt.
[udpate 12:56 - azruavatar] Bedard had a VORP of 55 last year. Mike Cameron put up a line of .232/.328/.431 for a VORP of 20. Would you trade Mike Cameron for Bedard straight up? Neither would I. Cameron’s line is awfully close to what Rasmus’ translation looks like from Double A (.240/.331/.474). Let’s give Rasmus another 5 runs for the extra SLG. That’s a difference of 20 runs or ~ 2 wins between Bedard and Rasmus right now. Now we’ve already decided that we wouldn’t trade Rasmus (Cameron) for Bedard straight up so you have to add more young talent to make this trade work from the Orioles perspective.
The problem is that Rasmus as a 20 year old is only about 2 wins worse than Bedard at his peak of value. Combine this with the fact that we’re talking about trading 6 cost controlled years of Rasmus (plus whatever throw in prospects) for 2 years of Bedard and this quickly looks like a bad trade for the Cardinals. Rasmus is a very unusual prospect in his combination of youth, power and position on the defensive spectrum. Trying to make sense of whether he’s going to reach the majors is more an issue of finding comparable players from the minors (rather than just looking at rankings and the like). You’ll be hard pressed to find comparable players because he’s so good at such a young age.
If this goes down I may go apeshit.
Filed under: Trade rumors
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
wow, i just read that also on the pd website and immediately checked out this site to see what had been posted. you are 100% correct erik….if something like this was to happen there would be anarchy in the strange household (and probably this site). if the cardinals deal rasmus, then they are in the same position they have been in virtually this entire decade-without any true impact talent in the farm system. so much for putting an emphasis on player development. to put it bluntly, rasmus should be and continue to be UNTOUCHABLE. it would be a little more realistic, at least in my opinion, to explore these options if the cardinals stocked up on true impact players in the draft instead of the “solid average” kozma’s of the world.
p.s. this site is the s@!t
This is a horrible idea. Bedard is not worth trading away the first impact bat the Cards have produced since Pujols.
Rasmus. I would trade Rasmus straight up for Bedard, but would hate it. The issue to me is the same as for Erik, their is alot of value in an Ace pitcher, but the risk is much higher than with a hitting prospect.
For fun, I blew the dust off my 2001-2003 prospect handbooks and flagged the top 10 position player prospects. Just defining success vs. failure in very general terms I calculated the % of top 10 position player prospects that were not more the MLB regulars. The results were:
2001 - Top 10 prospects: - 10% SUCCESS RATE??!!
1. Corey Patterson - F
2. Josh Hamilton - ?
3. Sean Burroughs - F
4. Antonio Perez - F
5. Nick Johnson - ?
6. Hee Seop Choi - F
7. Carlos Pena - ?
8. Joe Borchard - F
9. Alex Escobar - F
10. Drew Henson - F
11. JR House - F
12. Alf Soriano - S
13. DAngelo Jimenez - F
2002 - 20% Success Rate
1. Hank Blalock - F
2. Sean Burroughs - F
3. Carlos Pena - ??
4. Joe Mauer - S
5. Mark Texiera - S
6. Angel Berroa - F
7. Brandon Phillips - F
8. Austin Kearns - ??
9. Joe Borchard - F
10. Drew Henson - F
11. Wilson Betemit - F
12. Hee Seop Choi - F
2003 - 60 % Success Rate…
1. Mark Texiera - S
2. Joe Mauer - S
3. Rocco Baldelli - ??
4. Brandon Phillips - ??
5. Jose Reyes - S
6. Hideki Matsui - S
7. Micheal Cuddyer - F
8. Casey Kotchman - F
9. Victor Martinez - S
10. Hee Seop Choi - F
11. Junstin Morneau - S
12. Jason Stokes - F
So all in we are talking about a 50/50 chance that Rasmus would live up to his MILB numbers based on very rough data.
So would I trade him straight up for Bedard? Yes, but that isn’t the trade on the table… Any more and I just couldn’t do it. A case of me overvaluing Rasmus? Probably. But that is why deals like this are hard to get done…
I have a very low opinion of Mozeliak now….if he made this trade I will likely start a FireMo.Com website and see if I can find any voodoo curses lying around the crib:)
As pointed out above, the real problem is not that the Rasmus should be untradable but that he is close to the only outstanding position project the Cardinals have. He’s young and he’s good, but he’s far from a sure thing; he just looks like one because of the lack of talent surrounding him. The Braves or the Tigers or the Red Sox would have no trouble trading him if the right deal came along. People here can’t stand the thought of trading him only because if he were traded there would be no poster child for progress in the farm system. Perhaps he needs to be kept for that reason, but I can see Ankiel taking over in center field and doing as well as Rasmus over the next five or six years, although costing a lot more. Even worse, I can see Rasmus turning into another David Green, whom fans were similarly salivating over 25 years ago. Perhaps that won’t happen, but it could. The bottom line: Rasmus is tradable but may not be traded, for reasons that aren’t strictly related to value.
now, the article does not say that mozeliak himself thinks rasmus should be traded, though it does seem to be implied. but it could be others who are pressuring mo to make a deal. as we do not know, i am willing to give mo the benefit of the doubt for now.
agreed, really bad idea. its not the probability that he’d be a ml regular, but that he’d be much better than that. how do get the difference maker players, particularly in an affordable contract situation? rarely through free agency and only occasionally via trade. keeping rasmus, an everyday player with real upside, is just a gamble the cards have to take.
also, wonder if the changing face of player evaluation and more foreign signings are leading the higher percentages of “success” of the top ten prospects?
This just proves what I’ve said in other threads. The Cardinals say they are committed to developing talent internally but have done nothing noticably of recent to back that up. In reality they have no strategy.
The only way this trade works is if the owners commit to a payroll of about $130 million for the forseeable future.
“but I can see Ankiel taking over in center field and doing as well as Rasmus over the next five or six years”
Really? And you’re basing this off of what? Rick Ankiel is going to be 29, has less than two months of MLB experience as an outfielder and had less than 200 games in the minors. There is no reason to believe that a guy who has no secondary offensive skills and has probably already peaked as a hitter is going to do as well as Rasmus. Other than blind Ankiel love, I suppose.
I cannot for the life of me understand why people think Rick Ankiel is anything but a power option off the bench.
Because he hit 43 home runs and drove in 128 against AAA/MLB competition in only his second season as a hitter.
I think putting a ceiling on Ankiel is foolish at this point.
matt–ankiel is great and all, but he’s a one trick pony. he has power. he strikes out a ton and he doesn’t walk. he is capable of slugging .500. but he also could likely post a sub .300 OBP.
ok, two trick pony in that he has a gun for an arm. but i have serious reservations about saying he could match the production of rasmus over the next few years. i don’t even know for sure ankiel will have much of a long career, not hoping he doesn’t obviously.
Oh, I think Rasmus will have a better career, he has about an 8 year head start and has tools across the board. He’s about as close to a sure thing as you can get, but he’s still a just a prospect.
Ankiel’s one trick is also the most valuable, and you can’t teach light-tower power. I think it’s a mistake to compare him to other hitters his age, because it just isn’t the same situation. He doesn’t even have 1000 professional at bats.
The reason I think he’ll be productive for a few seasons is the way he handled major league breaking pitches. That puts a stop to a lot of AAA heros, but I was very impressed with his weight shift and ability to center sliders, curveballs, and changeups, and hit them HARD. All he needs to do is stay within himself and learn to take that high fastball, and nothing says he can’t. It’s not like he’s been chasing them for nine years. His BABIP is also right where it should be.
If utilized properly and hits in the mid-to-bottom half of the lineup, he’s a very valuable addition to a team that is in a serious power drought. I don’t think he’s the second coming, but he’s Encarnacion with twice the power and a shut-down arm.
I have not seen Rasmus play.
I would find it hard to believe that he does/ever will do these two things better than Ankiel.
1. Throw
2. Hit for power
However Ankiel is so far behind I find it hard to believe he will ever have the career that Rasmus should. As Matt pointed out Rasmus is about 8 years ahead of Rick. Now I may say Rick is a better overall athelete but he is really far behind development wise for obvious reasons. Rick’s OBP could be atorcious if he does not figure things out. He does not have great strike zone recognition, but why would he? He just started hitting at the professional level full time. He hit when he was a pitcher but that is different. I will say he seems to handle curve balls over the plate pretty well, which is nice to see.
I think Matt’s got it…
I’m excited to see what Ankiel will do next year. Seeing him hit rockets off the opposite-field fence in a AAA game last year, and watching him launch major league sliders/curveballs nearly in the dirt (even from left-handers) over the fence has made me a big believer in his ability. I don’t think that we should discount him at this point.
“I cannot for the life of me understand why people think Rick Ankiel is anything but a power option off the bench.”
I suspect it’s because some of us have seen him play in the outfield.
As for trading Rasmus, I’m ambivalent. I’m certainly not eager to see him go, but unfortunately the Cardinals seem to have few trading chips that anyone wants. What bothers me is the assumption by many on this board that he’s a once-in-lifetime player who must be kept at all costs, no matter what trade opportunities he presents. He isn’t and shouldn’t be. I’ve seen far too many “untradable” prospects who eventually do get traded and go on to quite unremarkable careers to want to put all my eggs in the Rasmus basket.
I wouldn’t mind trading Colby if the return was something I considered good enough. This idea just doesn’t do it for me.
Rasmus for Bedard, straight up? Deal. It’s a gamble, I would be nauseous over it…but I would pull the trigger.
The ultimate goal is to win championships, and it’s nearly impossible to do without starting pitching. Bedard dominated the toughest division in baseball, and I’m not convinced Carpenter or Mulder will ever be the same. He has health issues, but no serious arm trouble. (That I know of.) He was shut down in September primarily because they had no reason to bring him back.
If any additional prospects are included in the deal, I turn it down, or make sure Bedard has an extension in place. It would be a nightmare to trade a dozen years of control (or more) for two seasons of Bedard.
Well, it’d be tough to win even 80 games when you’re starting Albert Pujols and the Seven Dwarves. When somebody explains to me where the Cardinals are going to find more offense, then I’ll get on the “Trade Rasmus for Bedard” bandwagon.
Even tougher when you have Adam Wainwright and a grab bag of castoffs and and converted relievers.
Those Cincinnati offenses sure didn’t get them very far…
Since you put it like that Erik maybe Rasmus for Bedard isn’t a sure fire winning deal. But of all the pitchers rumored to be on the block which one would you trade Rasmus for if any?
i wouldn’t trade a player who is a top 5 position prospect for any pitcher on the block currently. haren would be the only one i’d possibly consider because his contract is rather cheap for the next two years and i’ve always liked him. but in the end, i don’t think i’d do it unless they included Donnie Murphy and another pitching prospect…and even then i’m not sure i’d do it. some of you need to be patient and realize rasmus is going to help the team win year in and year out, not just “win now”
FYI, the time Bedard missed in the minors was due to Tommy John surgery. He hasn’t had any arm trouble since his recovery, though, and he was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the AL last year. He’d be a huge asset. It’s just a question of what direction the Cardinals should take, and whether one big piece is all that’s needed to win the division.
Erik:
Besides Rasmus who is coming up that can acutually help the team at a position. It seems like the position guys are just fill in type guys. Like Hoffpauir, he may be able to fill a roll and be better than Miles but not as good as Eck. What does that really get you? He is cheap I guess but I don’t understand how paying Hoff $400K vs. Miles $1,000,000 really gets you anywere other than a slightly better cheaper version of Miles who in due time will be just as expensive as Miles. Where are the impact guys? FIll in guys are nice, but in the grand scheme of things paying guys like Miles or Izturis to fill in for a combined $4,000,000 is chickenfeed when it comes down to it.
I would feel more comfortable knowing there is a legit #2 in the system as well as 2 legit postion players.
I am just concerned.
What about copying ATL and DET when it comes to drafting. ATL is a team who is always competative and they draft well so you can’t say they get good picks because they suck. Also DET seems to have a theory on HS pitchers which has paid off very well as of late.
What is your take on copying?
Rasmus is a great talent, however, he’s still a prospect. The Cardinals are not getting any younger, an issue we are going to be dealing with for years to come. Keeping Rasmus is a great idea because it injects youth into a franchise that is getting old. However, trading Rasmus bolsters the starting rotation. The front office’s draft for the past few years has been downright sorry (passing on Joba and Porcello, inexcusable) in my opinion.
So do we trade our top prospect for a potential Ace? I am hesitant to say this because of Rasmus’s talent, yes. We need pitching. We have been trying to resurrect pitchers careers for years (i.e. Ponson, etc). I rather see the Cardinals trade for a pitcher that does not require as much work as pitchers past. Also, let’s admit it, the NL Central is the weakest division in baseball. Adding Bedard could be just enough to push us into the playoffs, and then it’s just a matter of luck.
Let’s just hope Mozeliak doesn’t EVER make a Moulder-esque trade. I think everyone around here knows what I am talking about.