I’ll address the Dodgers now, the BoSox later, so not to have an excruciatingly long post. First, the Kershaw question.

Clayton Kershaw has a world of ability–like fellow Dodgers Edwin Jackson and teen southpaw Greg Miller had a few years back, when they were considered by some the top two pitching prospects in baseball. And maybe they deserved that status. But here’s the “however.” However, being a top pitching prospect does not mean as much as being a top position prospect.

Even pitching prospects who realize their full potential (e.g. Mark Prior 2003, Francisco Liriano 2006) have an extreme tendency to get hurt not long thereafter. Moreover, even the ones who stay generally healthy usually endure substantial fluctuations in performance–see Jake Peavy ‘05-’07. I’d much rather have the last three years of Grady Sizemore, David Wright, or even Joe Mauer…wouldn’t you? And Peavy’s actually been one of the major’s more *durable* guys over those three seasons.

I’ve digressed somewhat, but what I’m getting at is that durability ranks nearly up there with raw talent when starting pitchers are *properly* evaluated–something criminally overlooked when Danny Haren was undervalued by everyone (including yours truly) throughout his minor league career.

Anyway, Kershaw. Kershaw threw just 122 innings last year, only 25 above low-A. His walk rates were downright poor and his HR numbers mediocre at best. I know I’m in a one-man minority here, but I feel CK has no proper place on anyone’s overall top 10 prospect list, and the Dodgers should trade him tomorrow because his value is extremely likely to plummet in the next year or two when he gets hurt (probably a 75-80% chance of that).

Meloan is a very good relief prospect. But relievers almost invariably burn bright and brief–and of course even when healthy have less value than everyday players and league-average starters. (The MLB salary structure confirms it.)

Elbert threw 14 innings last year. Redbird Jaime Garcia reached the same level one year younger, was just as effective, and much healthier.

I like James McDonald a lot, but he has yet to throw 150 innings, so his durability remains somewhat in question. Chin Hu is marginally superior to Jarrett Hoffpauir; either could be a solid MLB regular for 4-6 years, or wind up a utility guy. Andy LaRoche is one of the best 6 or 8 prospects in baseball…but the gap between him and Colby Rasmus is profound. (I realize you didn’t unwisely suggest otherwise. )

There’s much to like about Andrew Lambo’s GCL performance, but the Cards were also flush with solid-to-outstanding performances by age-appropriate teens in the lower minors. I’m speaking of Juan Castillo (a catcher 100 points above DSL average OPS, and much better than that on the road), Casey Mulligan, Andres Rosales, Edgar Lara (youngest guy in GCL top 20 slg., he finished 8th), Jose Garcia, Joey Hage in the GCL, Osvaldo Morales in the Appy, Pete Kozma, Nick Additon, Jeudis Polanco, Richard Castillo (youngest in top 10 VSL ERA, he finished 3rd with a 1.72), Mike Blazek, Reynier Gonzalez, James (Deryk) Hooker, and maybe the best of all, Beau Riportella–fourth in the Appy batting race at 18.

Wow, this post still wound up waaaay too long. Sorry ’bout that.

I see what you are saying, but am thinking that our system is going to start to pump out major leaguers soon. The question becomes will our system be able to replenish as graduations occur. If we can then we will start to mimic the organizations you mentioned.

BJM

Buchholz
Lowrie
Bowden
Ellsbury
Masterson
Bowden
Anderson

or

Kershaw
LaRoche
Hu
Meloan
McDonald
Elbert

Not only are these systems better right now, they’ve also been pumping out MLBers for the last couple years - Pedroia, Broxton, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, Youkilis, etc - so the current snapshot is not just a aberrant flash in time - these systems are better now, and over the long haul.

Sorry.

But I think it’s valuable to recognize so that we can stitch together some of the common denominators that come with building, then maintaining such systems. One is obviously being able to recognize talent (hello, Paul Coleman). The second is being willing to pay for it (helllo, Kyle Russell and Rick Porcello). The third is being able to develop it (hello, Tyler Greene); and the fourth is knowing when to hold it and when to deal it away (hello, Danny Haren).

I know its easy to cherry-pick bad examples, but the point is that recognizing what makes other systems better is a major step in the right direction.

But again, I do admire your optimism. And at least we have Colby.

With one uber-elite prospect, solid age-appropriate depth, and a handful of guys who were dominant, or nearly so, while old for their leagues (Mather, Hoffpauir, Gregerson, Motte, Maiques, McClellan, and especially Allen Craig come to mind immediately), the Cards’ system has done a complete about-face since the dread day of the Mulder Death Trade.

A few other teams have systems at roughly the same level as the Cards–I’m thinking of the Red Sox, Braves, and (thanks to the Haren trade) Athletics, as well the Dodgers if Kershaw stays basically healthy. And, of course, the graduation of Colby Rasmus this year will take an enormous chunk out of the farm system…but all in all, the Birds currently have a FAR above average collection of talent in the minors, and considering the vast majority of it has been accumulated in just the past 3 years, I’d say the team is now draftin’ & developin’ the right way, and headed for an extremely bright future.

I wouldn’t say we are doing the opposite of Houston. A team doing the opsposite would be acquiring assets for its minor league system (a la Florida and Oakland) not just keeping the ones it has. I do feel for Houston and their fans though.

However, a baby redbird cracking his way out of an egg with a baseball bat would make an excellent icon…