Comments on: Review - Rany Jazayerli’s “The Draft - Part I” http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:26:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: Superseve http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12583 Superseve Fri, 21 Dec 2007 10:16:22 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12583 I propose a different approach: the first parameter to be used to evaluate a player is the number of PA/IP in the major, this is stating his major league likeness related to the era he played in. A threshold must be put on this parameter, to discriminate between a real major leaguer and a AAAA player (I would say an equivalent of 800PA or 300IP for starters or 70IP for relievers). Then their WARP/OPS+/ERA+/whatever can be evaluated to discriminate the real value. Moreover, the tail of the distribution should be analyzed in a different way: due to the flattening of the average, it is more the peaks that should be studied, because the situation will go from a "generally good" player selected in the first two rounds, to the "diamond in the rough" player selected later. What it is important is to understand how to predict who will be the diamond. GO CARDS!!! I propose a different approach: the first parameter to be used to evaluate a player is the number of PA/IP in the major, this is stating his major league likeness related to the era he played in. A threshold must be put on this parameter, to discriminate between a real major leaguer and a AAAA player (I would say an equivalent of 800PA or 300IP for starters or 70IP for relievers). Then their WARP/OPS+/ERA+/whatever can be evaluated to discriminate the real value.

Moreover, the tail of the distribution should be analyzed in a different way: due to the flattening of the average, it is more the peaks that should be studied, because the situation will go from a “generally good” player selected in the first two rounds, to the “diamond in the rough” player selected later. What it is important is to understand how to predict who will be the diamond.

GO CARDS!!!

]]> By: sluhser http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12581 sluhser Fri, 21 Dec 2007 10:00:37 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12581 Regarding Solano, if he isn't striking out or walking that means he is getting wood on the ball most times he is up. The ability to hit the ball in the gaps is much easier attained than the ability to not strike out. It seems to me that just a little bit of tightening in in pitch selection could pay much higher dividends than it would for most players. Regarding Solano, if he isn’t striking out or walking that means he is getting wood on the ball most times he is up. The ability to hit the ball in the gaps is much easier attained than the ability to not strike out. It seems to me that just a little bit of tightening in in pitch selection could pay much higher dividends than it would for most players.

]]> By: azruavatar http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12546 azruavatar Thu, 20 Dec 2007 17:35:25 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12546 cariocacardinal - Sorry, wasn't quite following you initially. Tango uses this <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/salary2008.html" rel="nofollow">salary scale</a> for WAR (wins above replacement) but that has a different replacement level than WARP from BP. I don't know what the exact difference is but I'd be willing to guess it's something on the order of 2-2.5 wins in general. So if a player projects for 5 WARP in 2008, <b>I think</b> that it's something closer to 2.5 WAR. But I'm really not confident about that . . . . . I don't know of any salary data specific to WARP since everything at BP is tied to VORP now I think. cariocacardinal - Sorry, wasn’t quite following you initially. Tango uses this salary scale for WAR (wins above replacement) but that has a different replacement level than WARP from BP.

I don’t know what the exact difference is but I’d be willing to guess it’s something on the order of 2-2.5 wins in general. So if a player projects for 5 WARP in 2008, I think that it’s something closer to 2.5 WAR. But I’m really not confident about that . . . . .

I don’t know of any salary data specific to WARP since everything at BP is tied to VORP now I think.

]]> By: BigJawnMize http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12535 BigJawnMize Thu, 20 Dec 2007 15:51:29 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12535 It points to the thought that the number of picks in the top 40 is a very important number. The question I wonder is if it is always (almost always) the best idea to offer Type A players arbritration based on risk reward of a player you don't want accepting arbritration versus picking up another pick. Probably a lot of grey area here, but the Eckstien case is a good example to examine. It points to the thought that the number of picks in the top 40 is a very important number. The question I wonder is if it is always (almost always) the best idea to offer Type A players arbritration based on risk reward of a player you don’t want accepting arbritration versus picking up another pick. Probably a lot of grey area here, but the Eckstien case is a good example to examine.

]]> By: cariocacardinal http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12531 cariocacardinal Thu, 20 Dec 2007 14:57:12 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12531 Az - I guess I wasn't clear as your answer didn't get to my point. I'm trying to get a ball park figure of how much is a draft pick that will provide 10 Warps over his career worth or, with regard to FA's, how much is a player that will add 3 WARPS this year worth. Az - I guess I wasn’t clear as your answer didn’t get to my point. I’m trying to get a ball park figure of how much is a draft pick that will provide 10 Warps over his career worth or, with regard to FA’s, how much is a player that will add 3 WARPS this year worth.

]]> By: sportsman http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12527 sportsman Thu, 20 Dec 2007 14:19:50 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12527 thanks az, i know somebody must have done this. all the more puzzling that we didn't offer eck arb. the value of a supplemental pick is nothing to sneeze at regardless of what dollar value you assign. it is an opportunity and it is up to the team to optimize it. it is also an interesting backdrop or context against which the cardinals drafts can be judged, i.e., another league average comparison. luhnow has to outperform the league if we are to succeed by focusing more on the draft. FA signings can modify the index of a team's true success, but the draft will remain the major talent base for a long time. hopefully the cards front office can get on the same page next year. thanks az, i know somebody must have done this. all the more puzzling that we didn’t offer eck arb. the value of a supplemental pick is nothing to sneeze at regardless of what dollar value you assign. it is an opportunity and it is up to the team to optimize it.
it is also an interesting backdrop or context against which the cardinals drafts can be judged, i.e., another league average comparison. luhnow has to outperform the league if we are to succeed by focusing more on the draft. FA signings can modify the index of a team’s true success, but the draft will remain the major talent base for a long time. hopefully the cards front office can get on the same page next year.

]]> By: azruavatar http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12525 azruavatar Thu, 20 Dec 2007 14:03:30 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12525 "I don’t know if this gets covered elsewhere in this series but is there an accepted $$ value per WARP?" That all depends on a teams needs and payroll. If they have a lot of young players, they can accept a lower $$/WARP value from their free agents. The key is to set your win goal (probably about 90-92 wins gets it done for the Cardinals), calculate what you expect from you cost controlled players and then you can find how many wins you need to be getting from your free agent signings. “I don’t know if this gets covered elsewhere in this series but is there an accepted $$ value per WARP?”

That all depends on a teams needs and payroll. If they have a lot of young players, they can accept a lower $$/WARP value from their free agents. The key is to set your win goal (probably about 90-92 wins gets it done for the Cardinals), calculate what you expect from you cost controlled players and then you can find how many wins you need to be getting from your free agent signings.

]]> By: Bob http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12524 Bob Thu, 20 Dec 2007 14:01:46 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12524 Big thanks, for this one and the rest to come! Big thanks, for this one and the rest to come!

]]> By: cariocacardinal http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12519 cariocacardinal Thu, 20 Dec 2007 12:58:41 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12519 I don't know if this gets covered elsewhere in this series but is there an accepted $$ value per WARP? And just to be clear, this graph is saying that the average 10th pick in the draft will accumulate approximately 22 WARP's over his career? I don’t know if this gets covered elsewhere in this series but is there an accepted $$ value per WARP?

And just to be clear, this graph is saying that the average 10th pick in the draft will accumulate approximately 22 WARP’s over his career?

]]> By: cariocacardinal http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12516 cariocacardinal Thu, 20 Dec 2007 12:46:35 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2007/12/19/review-rany-jazayerlis-the-draft-part-i/#comment-12516 Thanks for leading this blind man through the wilderness. good stuff! Thanks for leading this blind man through the wilderness. good stuff!

]]>