Future Redbirds

First and foremost, Merry Christmas. I had this post in the queue for a little while, so here you go. We’ll be back with ya after the holiday.

So we’ve heard the criticism that Cardinal sites can myopic, focusing only on our own prospects and comparing them with each other. In response to that, I’d like to take a quick look at a few other systems. I don’t want to take the time and energy looking at the entire MLB, but I’m willing to look at our divisional rivals. We’ll start with our oldest foe, the Chicago Cubs. (On a side note, I always thought it was a friendly rivalry. Recently, it would seem we have some Cardinal and Cub fans trying to turn it into Red Sox vs. Yankees Midwest.) To do this, I spent time looking at First Inning’s depth chart and reading scouting reports in various places. If there are any Cub fans lurking out there who would like to weigh in, go right ahead. We’d like to hear from you.

Ready prospects:

Geovany Soto, 24 year old C (4 star prospect)
Felix Pie, 22 year old CF (4 star prospect)
Ronny Cedeno, 24 year old SS (2 star)
Eric Patterson, 24 year old 2B (2 star. 3 if he can stay at 2B)
Kevin Hart, 24 year old SP (2 star)
Josh Kroeger, 25 year old RF (2 star)

Where did Soto’s power suddenly come from? I’m don’t know exactly, he did drop thirty pounds and got in the best shape of his career. He always had good patience, but he looked like a future back up. After last year, he looks like a future all star. I have reservations if Pie will 100% live up to his tools. He may not become a future star, but I think he’ll be an above average regular, both he and Soto represent a nice home grown duo on the right side of the defensive spectrum. Cedeno continued to smash AAA this year. Cub fans seemed to have lost their patience with him, but he’s better then Ryan Theriot and deserves a shot. Eric Patterson has a lot better plate discipline then his brother Corey, but will likely have to move from the keystone to the OF because, and there’s not a spot open for him there. He’s a rather lousy defensive 2B. Hart profiles more of a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever. He has a good cutter, and an average fastball and a change. Kroeger is like our version of Joe Mather. He came out of nowhere to hit 1.058 OPS in AA as a 25 year old, then moved up to triple A and hit .260/.338/.474

Near ready prospects:

Sean Gallagher, 21 year old RHP (3 star)
Jeff Samardzija, 23 year old RHP (3 star)
Tyler Colvin, 22 year old CF (3-4 star. Would be 4 if not for his hack-tastic ways)
Donald Veal, 23 year old LHP (3 star)

Sean Gallagher profiles as a solid middle of the rotation hurler. He possesses a good fastball and a good curve. He struck out a little over 20% of the batters he faced between AA and AAA. He could probably benefit for another season in the minors. Colvin is a tools laden center fielder with very serious plate discipline issues. He had 101 strike outs to just 15 walks in over 520 plate appearances between A and AA. Veal had a 1.67 ERA in AA last season, but he also had a fluky BABIP of .246 and a high walk rate of 13.2%. This past season he swung to the other side of the luck pendulum, posting a 4.97 ERA in his second go around in AA, though his peripherals weren’t all that different. He has a higher ceiling then any other pitcher in the system other then maybe Jeff Samardzija, but he’s an enigma. Samardzija is a far more puzzling case. He has a 92-98 MPH fastball and a nasty, albeit inconsistent slider. Despite that, between A and AA he struck out a measly 10.4% of the batters he faced, and he extremely hittable, giving up 175 in 141.2 IP. There are about 10 million better ways to spend $10 million dollars.

Prospects 2 or more years away:

Josh Vitters, 18 year old 3B (5 star)
Jose Ceda, 20 year old RHP (2 star)
Tony Thomas, 21 year old 2B (3 star)
Josh Donaldson, 22 year old C (3 star)

Vitters is an amazing talent who had a terrible debut. He is expected to hit for average and power, in spades. Thomas was a guy I was trumpeting in the last draft, he fell to the Cubs instead. He hit .430 for Florida State and hit .309/.404/.547 in low A Boise. He strikes me as the Cub’s version of Jon Jay. Ceda has 66 K’s in 46 innings in relief. He throws in the mid to high nineties, and his slider is developing into an above average pitch. Josh Donaldson is a fine catching prospect. In low A Boise, Donaldson posted a 1.075 OPS. He walked in 18.7% of his plate appearances, more then he stuck out (16.7%). To top it off, he posted a .259 ISO and threw out 38% of would be base stealers.

The bottom line:

The Cubs system is a sound one. It’s not a world beating system, but it will provide some immediate impact this season and it did last season (Marmol). Further down the road, they also drafted some high impact bats in Josh Vitters and Josh Donaldson. The rest of the gang is iffy, but I like that they’ve spent money and time drafting players with high ceilings like Samardzija, Colvin and Veal.

I think the Cardinals have better depth from top to bottom, but the Cubs have more high ceiling players. They have more hitting prospects and they’re nearly equal in pitching, though I think there are more pitchers in the Cardinal system who will go on to have MLB careers. With the Cubs willingness to spend in the draft and in free agency, they could have a run at some long term success considering the current state of the division. I’m not sure their fan base will know exactly how to react to that. The Brewers could have something to say about that, and the Reds system looks to crank out some real talent soon.

–John Sickels Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects for 2008
–John Sickels on Samardzija
–Baseball America Top 10 Cub Prospects
–First Inning Chicago Cubs Depth Chart
–Star rankings stolen borrowed from the great Kevin Goldstein. His list will be 1000 x’s better then mine when it comes out.