Future Redbirds

Last time we looked the Cubs, in case you missed it. Today, Houston. In a sentence: The state of the Astro farm system is as ugly as their 1980’s jerseys.

Here’s a recipe to hobble the long term success of your ball club:

1. Sign a bunch of type A free agents.
2. Don’t offer arbitration to your type A free agents.
3. Don’t sign the players you do draft because you’re afraid of ticking of Bud Selig and the MLB by going over the suggested slot.
4. Trade what remains of your farm system for expensive and overrated talent.

3 of the last 5 seasons the Astros have signed type A free agents, forfeiting multiple high picks. Last season they refused to offer arbitration to Russ Springer, Andy Pettitte and Aubrey Huff , all of which were type A’s. Not only did they not get to pick until the third round in the past draft, they refused to go over slot in order sign their 3rd and 4th round picks, so their first pick to sign was a 5th rounder. To top things off, new GM Ed Wade traded off the best parts remaining in the area they could least afford-starting pitching. Before the Tejada trade went down, here was the 2008 Astros Top 10 prospects according to BA-

1. J.R. Towles, c
2. Felipe Paulino, rhp
3. Troy Patton, lhp–traded to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada
4. Juan Gutierrez, rhp–traded to Arizona for Jose Valverde
5. Michael Bourn, of–received in trade for Brad Lidge
6. Mike Costanzo, 3b–received in trade for Lidge, traded to Balt.
7. Bud Norris, rhp
8. Brad James, rhp
9. Chad Reineke, rhp
10. Eli Iorg, of

Let’s also not forget this is the same team who a year prior traded their best two pitching prospects- Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz –for what turned out to be a gimpy Jason Jennings. Even before the trades, it still was a thin system. But still, rather then trotting out onto the mound the ghost of Woody Williams, Brandon Backe and Jack Cassel, they could’ve had Jason Hirsh, Troy Patton and either Matt Albers and Taylor Buchholz in their place. All of these pitchers have their wrinkles, but just one of these pitchers comes with more upside then three fifths of their rotation combined. Wade plundered the system in order to field a softball team; all offense, no pitching and no defense. All of this was done in the name of a kakamaime and short-sighted hope of winning a weak division.

Major league ready prospects:

J.R. Towles, 23 year old C (4 star)
Felipe Paulino, 24 year old RHP (3 star)
Michael Bourn, 24 year old OF (4 star)
Chad Reineke, 25 year old RHP (2 star)

Towles will start as Houston’s catcher this season. He projects to hit for average and should manage 10-20 homers in the Juicebox, perhaps even more at his peak. He’s adept at blocking balls behind the plate, but he only threw out 28% of would be base thieves. Paulino has top of the rotation stuff but his control is questionable. He throws hard– 92-98, but can overthrow. He has a knee buckling curve. Some feel he’d be better off as a set up man or closer, but this spring he’ll get a shot at the big league rotation. Bourn was previously rumored in a trade for Anthony Reyes. I wish that happened, he would’ve been a perfect fit. Bourn draws walks, is quick as a cat and rarely is caught stealing, and he has a strong throwing arm to boot. He can play every position in the OF well. I’ll credit Wade for trading Lidge, who’s headed quickly for free agency in order to get 6 cheap, peak years of Bourn. Reineke’s has an average to above fastball and slider, but below average command. His future lies in middle relief.

Near ready prospects:

Brad James, 23 year old RHP (2 star)
Eli Iorg, 24 year old RF (1.5 star)
Sam Gervacio, 22 year old RHRP (3 star)

James is a sinker/slider guy with very low K rates. His GB% rates were 62% in A+, but they dropped to 49% in AA and the AFL. He is a Brad Thompson look alike to me. (Er, I mean look alike in terms of skills, not in physical looks. That would be weird.) Eli Iorg’s dad is Dane Iorg, a catcher for the Cardinals from mid ‘77 to mid ‘84. He tore his UCL ligament and had TJ this past May. He already lost 2 years of playing time to a Mormon mission, so the clock is ticking. When he’s healthy, he has solid power and speed, but he doesn’t have the soundest plate discipline. At best, he’ll be an average regular, but he looks more like a reserve OF to me. Gervacio has solid K% rates, but didn’t play until August because of an injury. What injury, I couldn’t find. Someone fill me in.

Prospects 2 years away:

Bud Norris, 22 year old RHP (3 star)
Mitch Einertson, 21 year old CF (2 star)

Bud Norris seems poised to breakout. BA notes he has the best curve in the system. He is a former teammate of Gary Daley and Thomas Eager at Cal Poly, and is the best of the three. Norris struck out 28.1% of the batters he faced in high A and had a 2.9 K/BB ratio. BA thinks he profiles better as a reliever, but they say that about almost every other pitcher. It’s his lack of “polish” that concerns them, as is the case with Eager and Daley. It begs me to ask-what are they teaching these kids at that school? Einertson got everyone worked up in ‘04 when he hit 24 homers in 227 AB as an 18 year old in the Appy, but hasn’t been able to duplicate anything near that success since. Last season in A ball he had a .150 ISO, this past season in A+ .177. If he can stay in CF, he profiles as an average regular at best.

Honorable mention: LHP Brian Bogusevic, RHRP Paul Estrada RF Jordan Parraz, 2B Jonathan Ash, C Max Sapp, RHP Chance Douglass and I suppose 3B Koby Clemens.

Bottom line:

The Astros are your ugly friend; almost anyone can look at them and feel better about themselves. Needless to say the Cardinals have them safely beat in every category, except the all important “immediate impact” category. Towles should be an above average catcher in ‘08, Bourn ought to be a nifty lead off man, and the organization can hang their hat on Hunter Pence, if anything else. Afterwards, it’ll be a long, long drought. The Astros are going to have to keep spending if they hope to compete. They have nothing left to trade, and the pipeline will be officially dry once Paulino comes up.

–John Sickels Top 20 Astros Prospects
–Baseball America Top 10 Astros Prospects
–First Inning Astros Top Prospects