Future Redbirds

Saving the best for last, we move on to the Reds.

Major league ready prospects:

Joey Votto, 24 year old 1B (4 star prospect)
Homer Bailey, 21 year old RHP (5 star)
Edinson Volquez (4 star, maybe more like 4.5)

Votto’s peak translated line: .293/.378/.516. Votto draws lots of walks, has above average power, and is a solid fielder at 1B. Inexplicably, the Reds picked up Scott Hatteberg’s option.  With Dusty Baker in town, I expect to see him shuttling back and forth from Cincy and Louisville though he more then deserves a MLB job. Bailey struggled in the majors trying to pitch through a groin injury, but there’s no doubt about his ability. He throws in the mid-nineties, has a knee buckling curve and has added a cutter to his arsenal. He mixes his pitches well and is getting better at changing speeds. He still has an issue with walks, walking 11.5% of the batters he faced in AAA last season. Edinson Volquez was acquired for Josh Hamilton. I like the move in that in cleared a spot for Jay Bruce. Volquez has top of the rotation stuff or at least close to it. He throws in the mid-nineties and has a nasty changeup. His control improved some this past season but he still walks a few too many batters. Leaving the Rangers-who have notoriously been unable to bring up top flight arms no matter how many they draft- should turn out well for Volquez…unless Baker makes him throw 120 pitches per start.

Near Ready Prospects:

Jay Bruce, 20 year old CF (5 star)
Johnny Cueto, 21 year old RHP (5 star)
Matthew Maloney, 23 year old LHP (2, maybe 3 star)
Josh Roenicke, 25 year old RHP (2 star)
Daniel Dorn, 23 year old LF (2 star, sleeper)

Jay Bruce was the minor league player of the year.  He is better then Colby Rasmus, though the gulf between the two isn’t that far apart and it’ll be fun to see how they stack up head to head over their careers. With Hamilton gone he will have a chance to win a job in CF to begin the season. As for Cueto, here is his strengths according to BA. (I couldn’t say it any better)–

Cueto pitches like a 10-year major league veteran, not a fresh-faced 21-year-old. He features a 93-94 mph fastball that touches 96, a tight 83-88 mph slider and a solid changeup that he, like many Reds prospects, learned from Soto. He’ll pitch off his fastball one time through the order, then baffle hitters with his slider and changeup the next time. He also can add and subtract velocity to confuse batters. His makeup is impeccable, which is why the Reds have felt comfortable keeping him on the fast track.

That’s pretty high praise. Maloney was traded to the Reds for Kyle Lohse and should be about as effective in the next season or two. Between AA to AAA he struck out 177 batters to 54 walks, despite slightly below average velocity. A “crafty” lefty, he throws a 86-91 MPH sinker, a good changeup and a decent slider. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter. Roenicke is an Ankiel story in reverse, he was an OF in college. He throws 95-98 and has a 87-89 MPH slider that breaks more like a splitter. He dominated A+, striking out 35% of the batters he faced and moved up to AA, where his K and GB rates took a dive, but he was still solid overall. He profiles as a set up reliever. Dorn had a .281/.360/.456 line for Sarasota and moved up to AA and his bat caught fire there, in 109 PA’s he hit .311/.422/.667. He could be the sleeper of their system.

Prospects 2 or more year away:

Drew Stubbs, 23 year old CF (3.5 star, big time tools, not yet w/skills)
Juan Fransisco, 20 year old 3B (2 star, if that due to plate discipline issues.)
Todd Frazier, 22 year old SS/3B (4 star)
Devin Mesoraco, 19 year old C (4 star)

Stubbs is a high risk/high reward type of player. He’s an amazing defensive CF and has solid tools across the board, but has trouble with K’s and isn’t the most efficient basestealer. If he figures it all out, he could be quite a player. Fransisco hit 25 homers in the MWL but has rather lousy plate discipline; he had 161 K’s to 26 walks over 567 plate appearances. Todd Frazier will likely have to move to 3B, but he has plus power, works the count and has decent speed for a big guy. I sorta was stumping for him in the last draft. Mesoraco is from Punxsutawney High, where every day is Groundhog Day. He was the Reds # 1 draft pick this past June. He possesses has strong throwing arm and all his other tools rate above average tools across the board; he can even run a bit for a catcher.

Honorable Mention:

Neftali Soto SS, Travis Wood LHP, Kyle Lotzlar RHP, Jared Burton RHP, Adam Rosales 1B, Brandon Waring 3B, Zach Cozart SS, Derrick Lutz RHP.

The Reds are just the best in the Central in every category you can imagine. They are totally stacked with top end talent. They should compete for the division next season without making any real major moves. There is just one problem: Dusty freaking Baker. Rob Neyer wonderfully documented Baker’s deficiencies in his Big Book of Baseball Blunders. Baker doesn’t belong managing, especially a team bursting at the seams with young talent. This is the same manager who badly abused his young pitchers when he was with the Cubs, and neither Wood or Prior have yet to recover. It’s maybe a little unfair to blame him for ruining either player, but his constant abuse of both didn’t help the careers of either. He is also the same man who said a player peaks when he’s 32-36 years old, and sends his rookies on the MLB-AAA shuttle every other week. He is the absolute worst fit possible for this team. Hiring him is the worst offseason move any team made or will make this year.

–Baseball America Top Ten Red Prospects
–John Sickels Reds Top 20
–First Inning Top Reds Prospects