When we’ve already put in a full season of covering the minor leagues on a daily basis, it’s hard for me to think of any really truly hidden sleepers. At some point or another, we’ve probably mentioned every prospect from Johnson City on up through Memphis. So my sleepers may be players you’ve heard of but not ones that made my top 25.
It’s not a big secret that I think Yadier Molina is vastly overrated by fans and seemingly individuals in the front office. I don’t believe catcher’s add runs or value through game calling, framing pitches or intangibles like that. Catcher ERA has been disproven and I’ve yet to see a statistical study that shows catchers can have an impact on their pitcher’s true talent ERA that is more than random variation. I’m also willing to acknowledge that not everyone agrees with me and there’s nothing that’s completely ruled this out yet either. With that in mind, Nicholas Derba is my sleeper. He’s a pitcher catcher whose more in the mold of Yadier Molina defensively but he has some early signs of being a good offensive player.
First, I don’t think Derba has the offensive potential of Bryan Anderson. There aren’t a lot of catchers that do though. Derba displayed incredible plate discipline with a BB% over 15 between Batavia and Quad Cities. He strikes out around 20% of the time, which normally wouldn’t concern me. For someone who isn’t a power hitter, however, you’d like to see that number come down and Derba make more consistent contact. Hopefully a full season of coaching will continue to increase the meager line drive rates and help keep his ISO over .100. If he can maintain walk rates over 10%, he’s got a good shot at having an OBP that will play in the bigs. He’s regarded as an excellent catch-and-throw defender although his arm may not have the laser accuracy of Molina. Like Anderson, blocking balls isn’t his specialty but he’s reported as a good game caller. The organization appears committed to having a catcher with what is regarded as plus defensive and game calling skills. Derba fits that bill but he may have something to offer offensively as well.
As long as I’m playing into organizational trends, I’m going to pick Brett Zawacki as my sleeper. Featuring a fastball with good sink and low 90s velocity, he fits the groundball inducing TLR and Dave Duncan mold for pitchers. He damaged a ligament in his knee, which kept his stock low, but showed off 94mph heat in October. He fell to the 12th round for the Cardinals where they signed him out of high school for over slot money to lure him away from Arizona State. He’s got a secondary offering in his curveball, which is just average right now. He’ll need to improve that and probably add another average pitch in the next few years but he’s someone that could rise quickly in the system.
Filed under: Brett Zawacki, Nick Derba
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Az you meant to say Derba is a “a catcher whose more in the mold of Yadier Molina defensively” didn’t you?
Good post–I was excited to see the cards sign Zawacki and I’ll play close attention to Derba’s stats this year
I know this isn’t a prospect related comment, but this post only reminds me how frustrated I am that the Cards brought La Russa back.
We’re in a spot where we have to be willing to commit to young, low-cost players in our system and we brought back a manager who, with the exception of the 2006 post-season, has shown he’s determined to do exactly the opposite.
Re-signing Aaron Miles and now talk of Molina getting a multi-year deal…it just reminds me that a valuable offensively talented catcher like Anderson may never get a chance in this organization because the team couldn’t just let Tony go. (Not that a multi-year deal means Yadi can’t be traded, but he’ll be here at least as long as Tony is.)
Maybe Derba will end up being a compromise between Molina’s defense and Anderson’s offense that Tony is willing to consider. I, for one, am hoping Tony’s not around when Derba (and Anderson, for that matter) is ready.
Az, I am increasingly coming to your point of view on Yadi although I still am quite fond of him. My son is a Division I college pitcher and I have always loved catchers who can reliably block the breaking ball in the dirt. Thay being said, I agree with you that his tangible benefits as a catcher are probably outweighed by his deficiencies as a hitter. Maybe he is trending up, but I am guessing his ‘08 will be somewhere in between ‘07 and ‘06.
One of the things that drives me crazy about Yadi is how he clogs up the basepaths. I don’t know of any studies or statistics that attempt to factor baserunning speed, but his career high in runs scored is 36 and he is nearly impossible to bunt from first to second. I don’t think he could score from 1st on a triple.
It seems to me he is going to have to improve his value as a run producer to be close to a valuable hitter and I am not bullish on that happening. His BA/RISP has declined the last three years and he hits the ball on the ground a ton for a slow guy. Especially a slow guy with a balky knee.
The Cardinals are apparently considering some sort of long-term deal that would at least buy out his arb years. I have been considering starting a diary on the advisability of that course of action at VEB, but I haven’t had the time and I am not the most competent guy when it comes to evaluating all the various statistical models. I think they should go year-to-year with him until we see how he is going to progress and whether he can stay healthy. Thoughts?
I agree with Yadi clogging up the base paths and there is no need to bunt him to second because it’s nearly imposible to score him from second on a single, even to right.
I agree with your choice of Derba as I noted in my comments on Erik’s sleepers. I do disagree with you on Yadi except for the base clogging problem which is remarkably bad even for a catcher. I do think he’s a piece of work defensively and predict that he’ll hit in the .270 range with 10 to 15 homers over the next few years. The two issues that I have with him are: A. He keeps messing with his stance at the plate. When he was imitating Albert he looked like a real hitter and B. That he misses time each year with injuries. This was a major issue when we had AAAA catchers for backups but should be better this year with Larue. I like Anderson but would prefer they look at trades for similarly talented young shortstops for him. I also think that Yadi is undervalued by other teams (possibly confirming your opinion) and won’t cost that much for a longer term contract.
I think Derba can get to the big league because he can throw runners out. I am very impressed and cant believe the Cards got him in the 30th rd.