Comments on: Q+A w/Bryan Smith of Baseball Prospectus http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:30:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: ICBIRDFAN http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13360 ICBIRDFAN Fri, 11 Jan 2008 04:00:59 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13360 easy- Like Bryan said, the cards system is ok. It looks a lot better when compared to other NL Central systems but the NL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. I think some people are bullish on players because the system was god awful a few years ago so people are excited to see some change. I mean if you compare Tampa Bay to STL it's not even funny. Also Detroit while wining has been drafing some straight studs as well. easy-

Like Bryan said, the cards system is ok. It looks a lot better when compared to other NL Central systems but the NL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball.

I think some people are bullish on players because the system was god awful a few years ago so people are excited to see some change. I mean if you compare Tampa Bay to STL it’s not even funny. Also Detroit while wining has been drafing some straight studs as well.

]]> By: easy http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13357 easy Fri, 11 Jan 2008 00:51:22 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13357 I don't want to be contentious but I am finding it hard to understand the high esteem that some folks here have for some of the Cardinals prospects. The most prominent of those is Mark Hamilton. Bryan mentions Hamilton in the same sentence as Ryan Howard (though he does state he's not as good) and then says that he has Ryan Klesko written all over him. At age 22 Klesko was putting up far better stats in AAA than Hamilton did "under the radar" in A. At 23, Hamilton's current age, Klesko was creaming the ball in the major leagues. Hamilton appears to be a non prospect to me, blocked far more effectively by his own limitations than by Albert's presence at 1b and yet he is in almost everybody's top 15. To me he, Cody Haerther and others are poor man's Chris Duncan's who might, if given an unwarranted chance, oddly perform better than expected in the majors but who, at this point, have played long enough to show that they have very limited upside. What am I missing here? I don’t want to be contentious but I am finding it hard to understand the high esteem that some folks here have for some of the Cardinals prospects. The most prominent of those is Mark Hamilton. Bryan mentions Hamilton in the same sentence as Ryan Howard (though he does state he’s not as good) and then says that he has Ryan Klesko written all over him. At age 22 Klesko was putting up far better stats in AAA than Hamilton did “under the radar” in A. At 23, Hamilton’s current age, Klesko was creaming the ball in the major leagues. Hamilton appears to be a non prospect to me, blocked far more effectively by his own limitations than by Albert’s presence at 1b and yet he is in almost everybody’s top 15. To me he, Cody Haerther and others are poor man’s Chris Duncan’s who might, if given an unwarranted chance, oddly perform better than expected in the majors but who, at this point, have played long enough to show that they have very limited upside. What am I missing here?

]]> By: fewgoodcards http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13350 fewgoodcards Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:21:34 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13350 the 5th starter comment was probably a little overboard, but i just don't like pitchers that rarely break 90 mph in the first round let alone at 13. he reminds me a lot of james simmons last year, and i said i would be fine with simmons at 36 last year as you couldn't match his polish. thompson would be a fantastic pickup in that 37-40 range (where it appears our comp pick will be this year), but i think someone will snatch him up before that. i am glad to see that bryan agrees with me on martinez, that kid is a stud. of course that probably also means he won't be available. however, there is still a lot of talent that should be available at 13. gerrit cole has an absolutely electric arm, kyle shipworth is a stud catching prospect, aaron hicks may be the best athlete in the draft, and ethan martin is another powerful prospect at the hot corner. as for the college guys, yonder alonso can flat out mash and he may be the best pure hitter in the draft, hunter has great stuff, and friedrich could be a fast moving lefty in the zito mold if his fastball command improves. it should be a lot of fun to follow this spring. the 5th starter comment was probably a little overboard, but i just don’t like pitchers that rarely break 90 mph in the first round let alone at 13. he reminds me a lot of james simmons last year, and i said i would be fine with simmons at 36 last year as you couldn’t match his polish. thompson would be a fantastic pickup in that 37-40 range (where it appears our comp pick will be this year), but i think someone will snatch him up before that.

i am glad to see that bryan agrees with me on martinez, that kid is a stud. of course that probably also means he won’t be available. however, there is still a lot of talent that should be available at 13. gerrit cole has an absolutely electric arm, kyle shipworth is a stud catching prospect, aaron hicks may be the best athlete in the draft, and ethan martin is another powerful prospect at the hot corner. as for the college guys, yonder alonso can flat out mash and he may be the best pure hitter in the draft, hunter has great stuff, and friedrich could be a fast moving lefty in the zito mold if his fastball command improves. it should be a lot of fun to follow this spring.

]]> By: haltz http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13348 haltz Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:43:12 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13348 Yep, I have no idea if the command is a fluke. That's where my concern lies. I don't think it necessarily needs to be coupled though. (Another sample warning: I also forgot how many bats he's been missing as well in his so-far professional stint. He's probably the player I'm most interested in following next year.) We know GB go for hits more often than any type of batted ball, and I just realized I'm preaching to the choir on the NCAA BABIP levels, aren't I? Same goes for the lower minors of course. I would be shocked if Mort and Webb weren't the norm. Yep, I have no idea if the command is a fluke. That’s where my concern lies. I don’t think it necessarily needs to be coupled though. (Another sample warning: I also forgot how many bats he’s been missing as well in his so-far professional stint. He’s probably the player I’m most interested in following next year.)

We know GB go for hits more often than any type of batted ball, and I just realized I’m preaching to the choir on the NCAA BABIP levels, aren’t I? Same goes for the lower minors of course. I would be shocked if Mort and Webb weren’t the norm.

]]> By: Bryan Smith http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13347 Bryan Smith Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:29:43 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13347 Nicholas asked, "Bryan, at what age/level/# of games or other criteria are you comfortable projecting a player’s ceiling or ability." It's a combination of factors, really. I feel I am far better comparing pitchers than I am position players, because with pitchers, you can first narrow down with the arsenal. Handedness, height, fastball velocity, out pitch should all be the first determining factors in making a comparison. However, statistics need to align, and I think you need a full minor league season worth before you can really start thinking about it. Now I was comparing Andrew Miller to Chuck Finley since he was a sophomore in college, and Mark Hamilton to Ryan Klesko since his junior season. Sometimes you get intuitive feels like that -- scouts get it all the time -- but it's hardly something to depend upon. And also, think of it like how PECOTA makes comparisons: the more games under a player's belt, the easier it becomes to find a comp. haltz said, "Small samples, and I’m not saying he’ll be Brandon Webb, I promise. I just think that him being “hittable” is the least of my concerns if he’s getting .72/.63 GB%." It's a very fair point, but I'm glad you aren't saying he's Brandon Webb. I think one thing I (or someone else) definitely should look at is the hit ratios of sinkerballers in the minor leagues, compared to everyone else. Marc Normandin talked about this in his Carlos Silva player profile this fall -- intuitively, it would seem sinkerballers should improve their BABIP as the defense around them improves. However, I think when you combine Mortensen's H/9 with his college BB/9, you see a pitcher still learning how to spot his pitches, which provoked my comment on his command. And per the draft comments, I think Hunter, Friedrich and Jacob Thompson are all along the same plane. I like Hunter the best, but if Friedrich improves his fastball command, he's very good in the Jaime Garcia mold. But I'm with fgc, I absolutely love Harold Martinez five months removed from the draft. Nicholas asked, “Bryan, at what age/level/# of games or other criteria are you comfortable projecting a player’s ceiling or ability.”

It’s a combination of factors, really. I feel I am far better comparing pitchers than I am position players, because with pitchers, you can first narrow down with the arsenal. Handedness, height, fastball velocity, out pitch should all be the first determining factors in making a comparison. However, statistics need to align, and I think you need a full minor league season worth before you can really start thinking about it. Now I was comparing Andrew Miller to Chuck Finley since he was a sophomore in college, and Mark Hamilton to Ryan Klesko since his junior season. Sometimes you get intuitive feels like that — scouts get it all the time — but it’s hardly something to depend upon. And also, think of it like how PECOTA makes comparisons: the more games under a player’s belt, the easier it becomes to find a comp.

haltz said, “Small samples, and I’m not saying he’ll be Brandon Webb, I promise. I just think that him being “hittable” is the least of my concerns if he’s getting .72/.63 GB%.”

It’s a very fair point, but I’m glad you aren’t saying he’s Brandon Webb. I think one thing I (or someone else) definitely should look at is the hit ratios of sinkerballers in the minor leagues, compared to everyone else. Marc Normandin talked about this in his Carlos Silva player profile this fall — intuitively, it would seem sinkerballers should improve their BABIP as the defense around them improves. However, I think when you combine Mortensen’s H/9 with his college BB/9, you see a pitcher still learning how to spot his pitches, which provoked my comment on his command.

And per the draft comments, I think Hunter, Friedrich and Jacob Thompson are all along the same plane. I like Hunter the best, but if Friedrich improves his fastball command, he’s very good in the Jaime Garcia mold. But I’m with fgc, I absolutely love Harold Martinez five months removed from the draft.

]]> By: cariocacardinal http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13346 cariocacardinal Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:26:22 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13346 "I don’t expect them to make the right decision." I wish this didn´t agree with this and allow it to sum up so much of my feelings regarding the current powers that be at Busch - but I do and it does. “I don’t expect them to make the right decision.”

I wish this didn´t agree with this and allow it to sum up so much of my feelings regarding the current powers that be at Busch - but I do and it does.

]]> By: Shhh http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13345 Shhh Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:25:52 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13345 Bryan: "This is both correct, and it’s incorrect. Look at the Cardinals draft last season — and look at how much their total cost was on signing bonuses in the draft. Now remember, Kyle Russell was deemed too expensive for their budget. If Russell’s million was too expensive, Porcello’s 11M was impossible, given the budget Luhnow gets from ownership." Oh, it was no shot at Luhnow, it was a shot at ownership. But in the end I would think you should be able to convince an owner to give you that kind of money. Also, I think any team that signs A-Rod for that kind of money is stupid. You could have 25 Porcello's for A-Rods money. As we all know Porcello was an instant top 25 prospect. Hell if the Cards would have just taken the money they saved on Edmonds and not made the Izturis and Miles signings theres Porcello right there, or even just Edmonds as thats all the guarantees. When it comes down to it, I think someone in organization has got to convince Dewitt that it's much smarter to spend on the draft, no matter how hard it is. Also, I'm not so sure about the Marshall/Garcia thing. At the same ages Garcia was at AA and Marshall was still in college. Marshall also tops out at 90 and sits at 87. I believe Garcia has better velocity than that and also better sink. Again nice of you to stop by and answer some of the bonus round questions. Bryan: “This is both correct, and it’s incorrect. Look at the Cardinals draft last season — and look at how much their total cost was on signing bonuses in the draft. Now remember, Kyle Russell was deemed too expensive for their budget. If Russell’s million was too expensive, Porcello’s 11M was impossible, given the budget Luhnow gets from ownership.”

Oh, it was no shot at Luhnow, it was a shot at ownership. But in the end I would think you should be able to convince an owner to give you that kind of money. Also, I think any team that signs A-Rod for that kind of money is stupid. You could have 25 Porcello’s for A-Rods money. As we all know Porcello was an instant top 25 prospect. Hell if the Cards would have just taken the money they saved on Edmonds and not made the Izturis and Miles signings theres Porcello right there, or even just Edmonds as thats all the guarantees. When it comes down to it, I think someone in organization has got to convince Dewitt that it’s much smarter to spend on the draft, no matter how hard it is.

Also, I’m not so sure about the Marshall/Garcia thing. At the same ages Garcia was at AA and Marshall was still in college. Marshall also tops out at 90 and sits at 87. I believe Garcia has better velocity than that and also better sink.

Again nice of you to stop by and answer some of the bonus round questions.

]]> By: erik http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13343 erik Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:25:18 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13343 huh...i heard thompson wasn't a world beater, but not a 5th starter. i just had read he had such good command and an assortment of pitches to work with, in particular having a good curveball. but i admit i don't know the players in the draft like i'd like to...yet. i'm gonna try and make it to more ncaa games this spring, iowa is only about 30 min away. the big 10 isn't neccessarily the best conference in the world, but i'm interested in seeing Zach Putman of Michigan and Ryne White of Purdue, whenever they come to town huh…i heard thompson wasn’t a world beater, but not a 5th starter. i just had read he had such good command and an assortment of pitches to work with, in particular having a good curveball. but i admit i don’t know the players in the draft like i’d like to…yet.

i’m gonna try and make it to more ncaa games this spring, iowa is only about 30 min away. the big 10 isn’t neccessarily the best conference in the world, but i’m interested in seeing Zach Putman of Michigan and Ryne White of Purdue, whenever they come to town

]]> By: fewgoodcards http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13342 fewgoodcards Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:18:47 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13342 i also think hicks and galloway could make for exciting picks. some people are now saying hicks may actually be a better prospect as a pitcher now b/c he has shown mid 90's velocity and a nasty slider, but we will see. i still think i would take him as a centerfielder. hunter is an interesting guy, he has that perfect frame and great stuff, but he also has control problems and reminds me a lot of mark mccormick. if you go watch one of the archived team USA games from this summer you will also see that he has kind of a funky delivery. as for thompson, there is no way he is worth the 13th pick in the draft. i know he has some good college numbers, but he just doesn't have the stuff to warrant that high of a selection. he is more of a 5th starter type for me. i also think hicks and galloway could make for exciting picks. some people are now saying hicks may actually be a better prospect as a pitcher now b/c he has shown mid 90’s velocity and a nasty slider, but we will see. i still think i would take him as a centerfielder. hunter is an interesting guy, he has that perfect frame and great stuff, but he also has control problems and reminds me a lot of mark mccormick. if you go watch one of the archived team USA games from this summer you will also see that he has kind of a funky delivery. as for thompson, there is no way he is worth the 13th pick in the draft. i know he has some good college numbers, but he just doesn’t have the stuff to warrant that high of a selection. he is more of a 5th starter type for me.

]]> By: Nicholas http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13341 Nicholas Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:12:50 +0000 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/01/09/qa-wbryan-smith-of-baseball-prospectus/#comment-13341 LeeCard...what they are referring to is that the Cards are more likely to sign Molina to a long term contract b/c of his defense despite the fact that he is a bad offensive player. The point being that Anderson is projected to be a far better offensive player than Molina but organizational philosophy is skewed towards good glove-no hit catchers...especially so long as the manager is TLR. LeeCard…what they are referring to is that the Cards are more likely to sign Molina to a long term contract b/c of his defense despite the fact that he is a bad offensive player. The point being that Anderson is projected to be a far better offensive player than Molina but organizational philosophy is skewed towards good glove-no hit catchers…especially so long as the manager is TLR.

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