I’m pretty pleased with PECOTA’s projections on a few of our prospects.
(Updated: Upside scores added)
Name - AVG/OBP/SLG - EqA - Upside
The first 4 stats are a projection of what that player would do right now in the majors. The upside score is representative of the player’s long term projection value — a quantification of their ceiling over the next 5 years if you will. One other statistic that I’ll throw in from time to time is the collapse%. This stat is something of a risk assessment. How likely it is for a player to just flameout rapidly so to speak.
Bryan Anderson - .255/.307/.370 - .236 - 30.7
The upside score isn’t particularly encouraging until you look at just catchers. He has the 37th highest score among all the catchers (including those in the majors). There are 19 players 25 or younger who have higher upside score but most of those have major league experience. He might not make the top 10 catching prospects based on that number, which would be quite at odds with Goldstein’s assessment of him.
Allen Craig - .260/.312/.460 - .251 - 23.1
A nearly league average projection for a prospect who just reached AA last season. I’m a fan of Allen Craig’s bat and maintain that he’s still the best prospect in the system even with the addition of David Freese. I wouldn’t mind drawing a Troy Glaus comparison in terms of ceiling. Someone who is no more than average defensively but can be worth 3+ wins with the bat at the hot corner. Craig seems to be on track to be ready for 2010 but a more reasonable estimate mid-2010 or 2011.
Jarrett Hoffpauir - .264/.339/.373 - .254 - 45.4
I have a little more faith in Hoffpauir than this but it again raises the question of why the team felt compelled to sign Aaron Miles (.265/.307/.321 - .221). Hoffpauir needs to build on the breakout season he had last year with the hopes that he can end the revolving door that has existed at the keystone position for the Cardinals. The upside score would seem to imply that Hoffpauir should project well into the future though.
Colby Rasmus - .245/.327/.437 - .266 - 120.7
What’s that? Colby Rasmus already projects to be league average major league centerfielder at age 21? And he’s above average defensively? Yes, he’s that kick-ass and yes, I’d like him to spend half a season in Memphis. The only outfield prospect with a higher upside score? Jay Bruce at ~200. PECOTA likes Rasmus as the second best outfield prospect in all of the minors.
Brendan Ryan - .268/.322/.348 - .241 - 56.8
PECOTA isn’t so much a believer in Ryan’s season last year. The primary difference is in the average as the walk rates project near last year and the power rates dip slightly. That’s not an unreasonable bet given some of his minor league numbers. I’d also imagine that when the PECOTA player cards come out, you’ll see some significant variance between the 90 and 10 percentile projections — i.e. Ryan has a volatile projection.
(edited by erik
David Freese .258/.332/.417 - .256 - 39.0. interesting that while Craig and Freese roughly come out to the same EqA, Freese has the higher upside score)
Other (poor) upside projections:
Tyler Greene - 28.5
Cody Haerther - 2.4
Brian Barden - 13.0
Brian Barton - 2.2 (Don’t understand this upside score)
Mark Hamilton 6.5
Pete Kozma 1.8
Filed under: Projections
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Ryan really excites me. I think he has that exsplosiveness that we all love about Rick Ankiel. I don’t know what is in the water down at Memphis but Ryan, Ankiel & Ludwick all have that firery athleticism that translates in to Cardinal Baseball. They all have great speed and strength along with a wiry frame and a quick bat. I like watching these guys and I think if it wasn’t for them last year would have been a lot uglier than it was.
Barton’s projection is a little disappointing. Presumably it’s dragged down some by the possibility that he’s hurt to the point where it cuts into his performance but not to where he can’t play, which would put him in undesirable company on his comparables. It’ll be interesting to see who his comparables are, when the PECOTA cards come out.
AZ, what are they projecting for Jay Bruce? BP has a big-time man-crush on that guy.
I assume that age figures heavily in these projections hence the weird upside on Barton. Most good prospects are in the majors or finishing AAA by the time they’re 25. Barton is old for his level but he’s got a different history than your average prospect. I’m pretty excited about him.
On a different note has there been any follow up research on these projections for minor leaguers particularly the younger ones? I really doubt that your average 20 year old catcher with AA stats like Andersons could actually hit the majors this year and bat .255. I suspect that a month or so into the season a weakness would be spotted in his swing, the opposition would pound away at it and he’d spend the next five months wishing he was back in Springfield. Some of the ratings make it look like these guys should be brought up now as they’d perform as well as veterans who are getting paid a few million a year. I know that the projections bear out pretty well for major leaguers and maybe for older prospects but I’m wondering about how accurately they project for the younger guys.
that barton upside score has to be an error.
Bill - An .848 OPS for Bruce with a .277 EqA. They have him slugging over .500 as well.
easy - the younger the player and the less the statistical record, the less the accuracy. I don’t think there’s been a comprehensive study akin to what you are asking about though.
are they going to do more, because you would think you’d see Joe Mather in there, or P.J. Walters and Jason Motte on the pitching side. oh, and you gotta love at least one of Colby’s comparables-Carlos Beltran.
This might be a little off subject but still a good update. Not sure if Josh Kinney is still considered a prospect or a major leaguer but i did speak with him today and he says he is healthy and feeling good and is ready and excited for spring training. Not sure if there has been much talk about that lately but how nice would it be to be able to take some pressure off our starters by having a been bull pen and Kinney should be a big part of that.
Yeah, that Beltran comp gave me a shiver.
A couple things about Colby’s PECOTA estimate around 120. Arizona centerfielder Chris Young tallied a PECOTA score over 200 one year ago. Young’s terrific score came on the heels of a age-22 AAA season that looked like this:
.276/.363/.532 and 17 steals in 22 attempts. His OPS was 127 points above his league. Colby in 2007? One level lower, but TWO years younger: .275/.381/.551 and 18 steals in 21 attempts. Colby’s OPS was a whopping 184 points above the Texas League average. Clearly, Rasmus today is far ahead of where Chris Young was one year ago…so I’d like to ask Nate Silver why Colby’s PECOTA is barely more than half of Young’s from 12 months ago.
i don’t understand why young’s would be so high. he has always been considered a guy that would hit for a low average, but put up good power and speed numbers.
I agree, fewgood, that Young was likely (at least a little) overrated by PECOTA last year. Rasmus, on the other hand, is underrated by any and all projection systems right now.
Colby’s uniformly underrated because the projections are all based on his *overall* 2007 stats, instead of his distinctly superior current level of ability. Specifically:
First half 2007 .840 OPS
Second half 2007 1.050 OPS
Most recent 220 plate appearances .350/.460/.720, with a superlative ratio of 35 walks and 36 strikeouts (this includes 67 PA’s with Team USA).
I’d put Colby’s over/under MLB hitting level at about an .860 OPS. Give me, say, 2-1 odds, and I’ll happily take the over for 2008. The young man will probably struggle in April–he’s started slowly at all 4 levels he’s played–but if the Cards are patient, he’s ready to thrive in The Show. Now.