There’s been some recent furor over the demotion of Anthony Reyes. Iron Cap has gone from being the club’s top prospect to top problem child, and when you hear some of the current comments by Dave Duncan about his young righty, he gives the impression that he has little to no confidence in young Reyes. I don’t believe it’s that he doesn’t like him altogether. It’s hard to hate someone who was so brilliant in Game 1 against the Tigers. If it wasn’t for A-Rey, things could have taken a different tone for the Series, and there may not be a flag flying at Busch III.
So what has gone wrong?
When you dig up prior scouting reports when AR was a top-flight prospect, they all concur that his fastball velocity was sitting at 92-93 and that he could touch 95. They agree about the fact that he had an average breaking pitch with plus potential, and a very good change. Outside of the changeup, what part of his scouting report have we seen in real life? The bottom line is Anthony’s stuff has badly regressed. A couple years back, there was word that his velocity was dipping while he was with Memphis. He sat out his turn in the rotation a few times, but went on to pitch well enough to earn a call to the big club. But we’ve seen a different Anthony then what his scouting reports purported him to be. His velocity now tops out at 92, and he sits at 89-90. His breaking ball is a slurvy mess and his main weapon-the change-isn’t as effective because of his fastball troubles. To top it off, his command has eroded. He went from having great command in the minors to having below average command in the big leagues. Now I’m not Carlos Gomez, but I can tell you from watching him pitch in his debut against the Brewers and from what I see now, it appears to me that his arm has slowed down and he has changed to a lower arm slot. I personally think he is more then simply out of sorts. Mechanical guru Chris O’Leary has never been a big Reyes guy. He claims that his delivery makes him a trainwreck waiting to happen. Now we hear he’s changed his arm slot yet again in order to help him be more comfortable. Just speculating, but that tells me at that his shoulder isn’t feeling like it should. It’s seemed to have helped his command this spring, but the he hasn’t missed many bats. He’s just not the power pitcher he once was.
I think what we’re witnessing is a once promising young arm unraveling due to crummy pitching mechanics. There was word the Phillies would’ve traded Michael Bourn for Reyes last season, and that represented a decent return. At this point, I’m not sure what he would fetch, but I think most teams that would be halfway interested are just waiting to see if they can’t just claim him on waivers, or if his arm falls off; whichever happens first. He’s not right, because he’s not healthy. And he’s not healthy because he’s not right mechanically. And I think Dave Duncan has known this for a while. And I don’t think he has the time or the patience to reinvent him. (The conspiracy theorists, and I was one of the louder ones, say he absolutely shouldn’t try. And yes, DD did try and push the 2-seam fastball on Anthony to little avail, but from what I understand it’s always been more about location and control.)
I don’t think Reyes will ever be the good #3 starter his minor league lines suggested he would be. It’s sad, but we see this happen with pitchers so often that it shouldn’t be that huge of a shock.
Filed under: Anthony Reyes
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
According to Joe Strauss of the P-D, “[Reyes] will be on the 25-man roster as a long reliever, according to a team source.”
According to earlier articles Mo and TLR were considering this, but Duncan was against it saying he believed “there are too many things involved” for Reyes to move to the bullpen, including an elaborate routine Reyes uses to get loose.
Looks like TLR may have trumped Duncan on this one.
Jawac: my thought when I read that was that a trade would be happening sooner, rather than later.
that thought had crossed my mind as well.
Pardon my ignorance, but what makes a trade more likely sooner by keeping him on the 25-man?
It means they won’t burn an option on him right away. Some teams may find that attractive.
That’s what I was thinking, but I wasn’t sure how big of a deal it would be to prospective buyers.
Good post Erik. Anthony just isn’t the same pitcher he was 3-4 years ago–and it has nothing to do with the two-seam, four-seam debate.
I know he isn’t “sexy” but Brad Thompson is younger than Reyes and should offer the same results. He isn’t great but Brad could be a league average #5 starter at very little money.
that’s not how options work. he can be bussed up and down all year, but when this year’s over his fourth option is gone.
Bret - re: league average #5
This is really a minor quibble but I’m not entirely sure what you mean by it. #5 starters are, as a group, rarely league average. If you mean he’s average relative to what we’d expect from #5 starters than that’s different than “league average”.
Thompson and Wellemeyer are both replacement level pitchers as starters. Thompson lacks any real outpitch and his secondary offerings are just average. He survives on his sinking fastball a la Carlos Silva (he lacks, however, Silva’s command) but that’s a fine line to walk. Wellemeyer has no command of his fastball.
Nice post as always. Ahhh Mr. Reyes - What a riddle eh? If we could wedge Pelfrey away from the Mets and pass along an OF like say Ludwick (allowing us to get Mather in the bigs) and a RP (say Franklin) that would make alot of sense to me.
If I were the Mets I wouldn’t do it, but that is where we are. I tend to agree with you Erik seems like the classic warning signs of a guy who has arm/shoulder problems. Duncan’s comments about how long it takes him to warm up don’t seem to be positive either. A trade is in the offing. I’d take anyone else’s underachievers. Say:
Joel Guzman and Edwin Jackson or Zobrist from the Rays
Andy Marte from the Indians
Jesse Barfield from the Indians
Erik Aybar from the Angels
Sure there are other combinations - but an interesting underachiever is all we can hope for at this point… All that said I’d rather use that last option and see what we have for one more year - not much value left at this point anyhow!
Stay away from Guzman. His batspeed is gone.
McClellan and Barton have been told that they made the 25-man roster. I was worried TLR was going with Pollitte for the final bullpen spot. This was probably the only case where his pledge that the best player, no matter age, would win a spot. See Looper, Izturis, Miles for evidence against this (hurting Reyes, Mather, Hoffpauir).
Unfortunately, erik, I think you’re absolutely right about Anthony. Tom House is essentially the grim reaper for pitchers, I think.
My problem, though, is when I hear a guy like Todd Wellemeyer lauded for controlling his pitch counts, even though he’s still walking five and a half batters a game and can’t make it out of the 5th inning.
Anthony is well on his way to a ruined career, due to nightmarish shoulder action in his delivery. As of right now, though, he’s pitched better, and more efficiently, than the guys who beat him out, and Reyes is being run down needlessly.
i can agree with you there rb. i think in the end, welly will be in the bullpen, and probably bt when pineiro and mulder come back. reyes will be elsewhere, hopefully under a coach like rick peterson or darren balsley.
I don’t think Duncan is running Reyes down. I think Duncan views Anthony differently than Wellemeyer. With the latter, what you see is what you get–he’s not going to get any better. I think Duncan wants Reyes in Memphis so he can re-invent himself in an environment where he won’t be vulnerable–he came to Spring Training with enough improved control and changed mechanics to show he’s willing to change, and that the changes have been working in some respects. But I think it’s a major mistake to put him in the major league rotation based on that. It’s a process, and the major mistake the Cardinals have made with Reyes was that they rushed him last year. Duncan still sees upside to Reyes; I’m not sure Mo does anymore with this move to the bullpen. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded in the early part of the season along with Shumaker.
Yeah, Wellemeyer is replacement level (I disagree with that assessment on Thompson, who’s a few months younger than Reyes and has been more consistantly effective with his limited stuff), but at this point, with four starters on the DL, that’s pretty much what’s needed–start a few games until one of Pineiro or Mulder is ready. I’d rather have a guy like Wellemeyer thrown to the wolves than keep running a guy like Reyes into the ground.
I’m not sure if the numbers support this, but I felt last year after his first few starts they never really allowed him to get in a groove. He was sent down to the minors and the brought back up a few times, and when he was brought back up his schedule was speratic. To me he seems like he’s type that needs the exta comfort of knowing that no matter what a team is behind you 100% and LaDunc have never done that….
Forsch31, I totally, completely agree with you, the words from Duncan to me sound more lik “he can do it” than “he’ll never do it”, while the move from Mo is clearly a manouver to dump him asap.
GO CARDS!!!
Azru..sorry. I didn’t mean he would be league average, but at least an average #5 guy. Not the same thing I know. In fact, I see him falling between average (a #3 type guy, and an average #5 guy). For the money, still ok.
tnek5–
Last season, Reyes received all of his starts in the first two months–I think it was 9 starts. He struggled both months and slid more in May, giving up 20 runs in 28 innings. With or without run support, he was getting hit and scored on–his ERA never dropped below 5.00 and was above 6.00 by the time he was pulled. I was worried more about his confidence level than his comfort level.
The problem, to me, is that after they pulled him, they needed to identify what he needed to do to improve and have kept him at Memphis for the rest of the season to concentrate on making those adjustments. Reyes’ proven he can dominate AAA hitting; that’s the right environment for somebody who needs to make major changes and experiment. That didn’t happen, and Reyes spent the season yo-yo’ing until August. That did more to retard Iron Brim’s development than anything else, and the onus for that rests on LaRussa or Jockerty.
I think the real issue with the Duncan-Reyes dynamic is that Reyes was unwilling to accept that he needs to become a different kind pitcher. His comment in last year’s Spring Training–where he wasn’t going to give up on his high fastball, despite his diminished velocity–speaks to me of a guy who is in denial. He’s not a power pitcher, not with the stuff he has now or last season. That hesitation to adapt probably has irritated Duncan, who, to be honest, doesn’t handle that very well (see Marquis). That has made Reyes’ adjustment to Major League play far more rockier than, say, Wainwright or Thompson, who had their bumps but generally have been more effective more consistancy in their roles.