There have been several mock-ups of the upcoming draft, and all have their plusses and minuses as the writers of those mocks may or may not be completely familiar with what a team’s drafting habits are. Recently, I’ve also got to participate in a forum participant mock draft at the Project Prospect, and while it was a fun exercise, it was more of whom that person would take rather than whom the club they were picking for would likely take. I wondered what would be the best way to get an accurate mock draft, and it occurred to me to try and put together a team-specific blogger collaborative mock draft. That’s a mouthful, and I wish there was a cooler way to say it, but the idea is that bloggers of certain teams know their teams better than most, and we’d all get to have fun putting on our amateur GM/Scouting Director hats and pick for our favorite team. Anyway, after much emailing I was able to put it all together. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to get team specific bloggers for every team, so I enlisted the help of some experts. Keith Law agreed to pick for the Rays, Bryan Smith agreed to pick for the Indians and Kiley of Saber Scouting is helping with the O’s and Astros. Anyway, the draft is happening here, and I was able to make my pick. Lucky for me, my pick was a slam-dunk.
Here are the results leading up to my pick.
1. Keith Law of ESPN.com picks C Buster Posey for the Rays.
2. Bucco Blog takes 3B Pedro Alvarez for the Pirates.
3. Royals Authority acts quickly, taking SS Tim Beckham for KC.
4. Saber Scouting jumps on LHP Brian Matusz for the Orioles.
5. El Lefty Malo takes 1B Justin Smoak for los Gigantes.
6. Future Fish goes with C Kyle Skipworth for the Marlins.
7. Reds Minor Leagues goes with the first slight surprise, taking SS Gordon Beckham of Georgia. Rumors have had Kelly there, but Beckham makes a ton of sense for Cincy.
8. Channeling his inner Kenny Williams, Zoner Sports takes 3B Brett Wallace of Arizona State.
9. Nationals Farm Authority, looking for a bat that can make a quick impact and takes 1B Yonder Alonso. He’s taking some flack about it at his blog, but Zimmerman-Alonso is a nice duo on the corners if you ask me.
10. Kiley of Saber Scouting goes with Aaron Crow for the Astros. Quite a tumble for Crow, and he could cost some $$$ for Houston. But after last year’s debacle, its not like can’t afford him.
11. Rangers Farm Report goes with Eric Hosmer. They don’t always go over slot in the first round, but they’d dealt with Boras in the past and Hosmer’s bat is worth it.
12. Taj of Athletics Nation decides to take a calculated gamble on RHP/3B Ethan Martin. With the way Oakland’s restocked its farm system, they can afford to go with a high risk/high reward HS pitcher like Martin. I like this pick. That of course leads me to draft…
13. Christian Friedrich, LHP. We know about Friedrich here by now. Luhnow has stated recently how he’d like lefty pitching and we know his penchant for college pitchers in the 1st round. Friedrich has a great track record and polish; this is a pretty much a no-brainer for me. Here’s his scouting report from BA:
Part of a prospect-studded Falmouth rotation that also included Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt last summer, Friedrich struck out Buster Posey, Jason Castro and Gordon Beckham in his final inning in the Cape Cod League playoffs. Like Crow, Friedrich operated in the mid-80s as an undrafted high school senior before blossoming in college. He now maintains solid-average 89-91 mph velocity throughout a game and can touch 94, but his money pitch is an over-the-top curveball with huge 12-to-6 break. Blisters have periodically bothered Friedrich this spring, so he has been using his slider more than he has in the past, and it has become a weapon at 80-82 mph. He also has a decent changeup that he’ll need to incorporate more often in pro ball. While Friedrich throws strikes and can command his fastball to both sides of the plate, he sometimes leaves it up in the zone. He gets away with a lot of those mistakes because his deceptive delivery and the fear of his curveball allow his fastball to get on hitters quickly. He doesn’t have the ceiling of San Diego’s Brian Matusz, but Friedrich is clearly the second-best lefty available in the draft.
I admit I was sorely tempted to take Brett Lawrie, and I think even with Friedrich on the board the Cardinals just might go in that direction, I just am not totally convinced they would. The system is pretty destitute of left-handed SP behind Jaime Garcia, and Friedrich seems like a safe bet to me. If he is the Cards pick, I could see him moved up pretty aggressively.
Anyway, feel free to check out the draft as it’s happening.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Good pick, I like Friedrich, if available.
Gah!
NO!!!
Can I say that Brett Lawrie’s draft video on MiLB just blows. They show him getting on-base on a infielder error and then taking second and third on a bad throw from the catcher. Can’t they put something that actually shows his talent up there…
I’m surprised you didn’t pick Ryan Perry.
Hosmer was tempting for the White Sox at 8, but being a client of Boras and the fact that Wallace had a stellar college career, I chose Wallace for the Sox. Their farm system has shriveled, especially when it comes to position players. I believe it would be a solid pick for them there.
If Friedrich is available I also think he will be the Cards pick based on Luhnow’s recent comments about the dearth of LH pitching in the system. I also think both Odirizzi and Melville are in play at this pick.
OT, but Duncan to Memphis and Mather to STL per Bernie at the Pressbox.
Welcome to the Show, Joey Bombs!
Just wanted to say great job with the whole idea. It’s a very impressive and ambitious project, so kudos for getting it going so smoothly.
C70–some of your efforts inspired it, credit where due
Will not quibble with a Friedrich pick during the actual draft. . .I just hope the Cards grab someone with a first round grade and not reach for a Zach Putnam or somebody at 13.
Boo, Friedrich.
(He’d probably be a pretty decent pick, actually, but I’ve established my positions and I don’t plan on deviating.)
I’m still set on Melville but that’s more of a me pick and I won’t complain if we end up with Friedrich.
Just don’t think we need to be looking at the “safe” pick when we haven’t picked this high in years. Upside baby!
I’ve seen Friedrich pitch a couple times and come away very underwhelmed. The velocity on his fastball wasn’t in the low 90’s as reported. The highest I saw on the gun was 88 and that was in the early innings. Didn’t have much movement either. His curve was pretty good, but he didn’t throw it for strikes either time. Right handed batters didn’t have a bad at bat against him ever, in either game.
No Friedrich please
maybe a dumb idea, but what if there is nobody the cardinal’s are truly interested at #13. Couldn’t they just pick somebody that is looking for overslot, offer slot or under and pretty much forfeit the pick. Then take your chances at #14 next year? be kind of interesting
Luhnow has been part of drafting Furnish in 06 and Haberer in 04. Haberer has been released and Furnish is not setting the world aflame. Our best lefty did not come at a high round, but as an undervalued high school kid from S. Texas.
Last June, the Cards were pretty relaxed about southpaws, grabbing some ho-hummers about round 25. So even if Jeff says he would like some southpaws, I am not sure this translates into being a large factor in round 1. A small factor, maybe.
Lawrie may be a nifty hitter, and there are some more good hitting prospects too, but my guess is they will look at a lot of pitchers carefully and pick the one they feel has the most upside. He could be right or left, hs or college. It could be one of the most mentioned names or a little mentioned guy.
A few years back, it would probably have been Hunt or Freidrich, one or the other. There may be more possibilities today.
Luhnow drafted Jaime Garcia
I can understand if people were talking about the Cards drafting a guy like Nick Schmidt at #13..a guy who wasnt a big strikeout pitcher, a guy who gave up a decent amount of hits and a guy who was ranked in the 20 to 30 range.
But Friedrich is ranking in almost every 3rd party publication in the top 15.
Since the Cards pick at #13..I really dont see the fuss.
I heard same odd reasons for passing on Friedrich…from he only throws 90, the curve wont translate to the pro’s, if he really wanted to be a good prospect he would have transfered from EKU.
If every pub ranks him in the top 50, he has put up 2 dominant, consistent seasons in a row and showed he not only could hang with the best of the best at the Cape, but K 52 in 37IP…I dont see how people think we are doing something wrong by taking him.
When did a swing and miss LHP with that resume who is only 20 years old…become a guy without upside?
Sorry..dont mean to spam the board…but I wasnt trying to be mean with my comments and would have no problem if the Cards passed on a guy like Friedrich for Hicks, Lawrie or another talent.
I just think the views of Friedrich and being a safer pick should be looked as a negative.
LH is a premium, finding one that is durable, consistent with a strikeout pitch is even harder.
We will see…according to most of the latest talk….Friedrich wont even be available.
As long as the Cards dont pull a Ryan Perry, Andrew Cashner or Jason Castro out of the hat…I think future’s, Cards talk and Cardinal nation as a whole will be happy.
Make love, not war:)
I love how tony calls guys up and plays them immediately. Good luck tonight Joe Mather, dont let us down.
Mather said that he just wants to get on base tonight because he doesnt want to make AP angry. Good to see him with a sense of humor less than a half hour from his debut.
He also belives himself as a hitter with average and occasional balls that leave the yard. YOU MATHER MAKE BALL GO FAR!!!
Pujols always seems to homer when he’s angry, so I wouldn’t mind.
I’ve made no secret of my desire for the Cardinals to take Friedrich at 13 if he’s available, but I don’t believe that he will get passed Oakland at 12.
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